Blizzard 2010!

What a fantastic storm this was; classic meteorology textbook storm. I would have LOVED to have had a map discussion with my fellow Kean mets and Zois! Alright, granted most of you though this would have been 'worse' then it actually was. Well, to those people, not all of us have 4-wheel drive SUV's to trek out in the storm. 
The snow was a drier snow. Not like the wet snow that fell earlier this year. I don't exactly know what kind of snow is worse; the heavy wet stuff that breaks your back to shovel, or the dusty light powder that drifts feet of snow in the wind! Winds out of the North (where some of our coldest temperatures are from) helped to dry out the air. If any of you went outside last night to play in the white stuff, could feel how cold it was; you couldn't breath! Aside from exerting myself before daybreak shoveling the snow (to get myself to work) I just could not breath! Not only were the 30 mph chilling wind gusts taking my breath away, but the air was so dry! Looking at the surface observations from Trenton Mercer Airport, the temperatures were in the middle to lower 20s, and the dewpoints (essentially the moisture in the air) were in the teens and falling through the day. 
Remember: when outside shoveling or playing with the kids, go inside and hydrate frequently. All this dry air is sucking all the moisture out of the body leaving you quite dehydrated. Earlier today as well as the evening comes closer, wind chills will become colder. This morning, wind chills were measured in the single digits across New Jersey!


This storm was something not to be messed with. It was indeed a strong storm as it intensified through the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. In just about 24 hours, the low pressure system dropped just about 20 mb of pressure as it hugged the Eastern seaboard on its Northeastward trek. The storm deepened and shifted westward a little more then what was expected. The low pressure area just coiled up like a snake creating such a strong pressure gradient that has been causing the 45 mph plus wind gusts. 
Heavy bands of snow crossed the area dropping just about 2 inches of snow per hour in various locations. This storm left very impressive snow accumulation totals. Generally, a foot of snow was the average amount in most locations across New Jersey. Northeastern counties in New Jersey surely felt the brunt of the snow.
It is incredible to see such high snow accumulations from an area that is so densely populated.
The following are snow accumulations recorded from the National Weather Service:


Lincoln Park, NJ: 29.0"
Elizabeth, NJ: 31.8"
Harrison, NJ: 24.5"
Chesequake, NJ: 23.2"
Newark Airport: 20.0"
Atlantic City: 19.0"
Cape May, NJ: 18.0"
Soundview Park Homes, Bronx County, NY: 22.5"
Central Park, NYC: 20.0" (just six inches shy of the record in 2/2006 of 26.9" from a single storm)
Philadelphia Airport: 12.4"


Portions of the New Jersey coast received snow accumulations near 25 inches. Locally there were heavier amounts. Snow drifts were especially near the coast up to 5 feet! What can you do with 5 feet of a snow drift?! Make an igloo! Gusting winds 45 to 50 mph made for blizzard conditions all through the state and visibilities near zero. This storm is still over yet. It will and has been moving along the Eastern coast exploding snow fury too all in its path. By Tuesday afternoon it should be out to sea. High pressure will build in and the winds will begin to diminish. Temperatures will be on the rebound through the week; the middle 30s as daytime highs falling to the 20s by the evening. Towards the end of the week, we will have a warm-up! What a way to start off the New Year then with sunny skies and temperatures in the 40s; where they should be for New Jersey!


This storm was unbelievable. Well, not completely. It's Mother Nature. Such a beautiful thing.


I must say, my favorite moment during this whole event was just standing in the middle of the street last night with my puppy just 'being.' Standing still and not hearing a sound but the snow falling and the wind blowing. The snow and ice crystals were glistening in the street lights. It was such a beautiful sight.


Be safe driving and have fun in the snow! To all skiers and snowboarders; fresh powder yeahhh!
Have fun!


~ V.S.

Major Snow Storm Riding the Coast

On this day...A snow storm was born...
As anticipated, the models are beginning to agree and the story is unfolding to be a monster of a storm. The funny thing is that a week ago, guidance was hinting at an epic snow storm for the East coast. But things shifted changed a little, nothing was quite agreeing. Then, bam! The worst case scenario from this system is about to unveil through Monday.
The ENTIRE state of New Jersey in under a Winter Storm Warning and the NYC Metro area is under a Blizzard Warning. My, has the forecast changed!
The following is how the next 36 hours will play out:
Through Saturday, the surface low will continue to develop over the Southern states as it takes its eastward journey. Again, there is still a little bit of wiggle room in terms of the storm track. Keep in mind: a deviation of just a 50 miles or so can make a huge change in the forecast meaning more or less snow. All the models seem to agree on the track however, there seem to slightly disagree on the QPF.
When will it all start you  may ask? Starting Sunday morning snow flurries/showers will spread across southern portions of Jersey then working Northward. The worst of the snow falling in the evening hours Sunday through Monday. Despite the falling snow and potential accumulations, the wind will be another issue. Gusting winds of 25-30 mph will make for blizzard-like conditions especially towards the evening.
As far as total snow accumulations goes, I do believe this storm will keep on track. The coast will receive higher amounts compared to inland along with stronger winds. For central parts of New Jersey and along the 95 corridor, I think between 10-12 inches and locally heavier amounts could verify. Blizzard conditions and blowing snow could very well be the case for the 'burbs and rural areas. Below is an estimated snow accumulation map derived from the NWS.

Snow Storm Totals Courtesy of NWS

Bottom line, whether we have over a foot of snow, or a few inches, traveling Sunday evening will be dangerous. If you are on the roads, just use common sense...don't drive if the conditions are awful. Or don't drive at all. Spend one extra day with the in-laws...a little extra quality time won't hurt (too badly) :)

Happy Snowing!

~ V.S

Winter Storm Watches Posted

Most of us waking up this morning, especially the kids, will feel a bit disappointed looking outside and there be no snow. Well, at least in the Tri-State. New Jersey has been spared a few storms while other parts of the country have been witness to one of the most active Winter seasons in years! 

This monster storm that we have been watching is giving forecasters a run for their money. Model guidance has been suggesting a strengthening Nor'easter redeveloping off the East Coast. It is about 24 hours out now, and we are now starting to have some kind of agreement between models and are watching the story unfold. Nevertheless, when I checkout out the National Weather Service this morning, It was quite amusing to see (more or less) the entire East Coast listed in weather watches or warnings. From freeze watches and warnings in Florida to winter storm watches from the south eastern tip of South Carolina extending as far north as north eastern Maine and every state in between! I can not remember the last time I saw such a wide range of warnings. Which mind you, shows that the forecast for this storm is still uncertain and through the day Saturday, the watches and warnings will be changed accordingly. But it does not hurt to be prepared for the worst. 

The winter storm watch posted for our area suggests six inches or more is possible to fall along with gusting winds up to 25-30 mph Sunday through Monday. Now, this suggested accumulation is based on the low creeping more towards the West. Again, this low pressure area is still in the works along the Southern states. The exact track will be determined by the upper level flow. As the upper level trough sharpens as it moves East, it will likely form a cut off low; A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from the basic current and move independent of that current (NWS). Now the tricky part comes into play here. Guidance has suggested that this low will move far enough North and East that it will only have a minor impact on the area (perhaps a coating to an inch or so of snow). Or it could move a little more to the West and we could see half a foot. As of now, heavy snow has been booted out of the forecast, but the forecast can change at any moment. 

The main issue following the storm; very cold and blustery! Temperatures will be reaching to get out of the 20s along with 25-30 mph wind gusts, equals bitterly cold temperatures Monday through midweek. 

Updates will be followed up accordingly so check back often. 

For now, have a happy and blessed Christmas.

~ V.S.

Christmas Forecast and Potential Significant Northeast Snow

The western coast has been inundated with such rain, that has made the record books. Nearly twenty some odd inches plus of rain...yes, the liquid rain has fallen near the coast and low lands; streets turned into rivers, mudslides galore, unthinkable beach erosion. The fires as of late have utterly destroyed the foothills and surrounding lands that were left. The hillsides and such would be able to handle most of the water damage, but the fires have left the soil and forest at such a vulnerable state that the waters just wash over everything.
 Up in the higher elevations by Thursday, another eight (8) or more feet of snow will have fallen on top of the thirteen feet that has already fallen as of late. Talk about skiing on that kind of fresh powder. I can not fathom how these ski slopes can handle such significant snow amounts and still be open for business!
There is and has been quite a lot of weather going on. But now, the focus on everyone's mind is whether or not we, in the Tri-State, will have a white Christmas...

Much like all of you, I would want nothing more then to enjoy the glistening of ice on the trees, snowmen decked out in holiday gear on front lawns along with a few inches of snow laying on the ground. That, is a lovely image of what Christmas and the new year should be like. Well, if you live in or are visiting places that have had recent snow; that image sound a bit right. However, for much of us in New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania and New York well, not so much. We could have seen some snow accumulations that could have stuck around through this week if that past storm hung a little more to the West. Instead it went further East out to sea. This pattern has been trend of most of the models.

Now, this coming event could be rather significant. Or it could be nothing event. I think the major thing surrounding this event is the fact that it will develop and impact such a significant weekend because of the holiday; the holiday itself, people traveling and such. So we are watching this event unfold every model run and are watching what we say very closely here.
One this is for sure: there will be enough cold air in place to support snow, so it will have the Christmas 'feel' to the air. Now, all we need is this low to track up the coast then... bam!

I should mention the near term weather leading to the weekend as there will be a lot of people out and about that should be prepared. Although temperatures will be back up near the average range (flirting with the 40s) Thursday through Friday, gusting winds will only make it feel just as cold as it has been for the past few weeks. Winds gusting up to 30mph will make wind chills feel like 20s!
Models are now stating to come into agreement as when this storm will affect the East coast. As of now, for the most part the forecast models are indicating the possibility for a CHANCE of SNOW SHOWERS Christmas (Saturday) evening. The low pressure system will be developing over the Eastern Gulf States through much of Saturday. So far, much of the guidance from the models indicate that Saturday, for the most part will be dry and cold. However, a little 'wishcasting' can't really hurt...I don't want to get hopes high, but just even a snowflake falling on Saturday will 'make' Christmas.
Although there is still uncertainty as to what exactly will unfold, there is still some medium range forecasts that show this system affecting the area Sunday through Monday. These forecasts show that this could be a rather significant for the Northeast. We are still watching the jet streak off shore from California that will quickly move through the jet stream affecting the Southern states along the way reaching the Gulf States by Saturday. The main thing that is being watched is whether or not phasing, if any, as the Northern jet streak could dip into the long wave trough that could be in ideal position. If this occurs, it could mean significant snow accumulations through the Delmarva and New Jersey Sunday through Monday. Guidance shows this low slowing down (hence, the snow forecast pushed back for later weekend) giving it time to deepen through the levels, with the greatest storm intensification occurring over the Mid-Atlantic states (ah-hemm, LOVE IT!) The 12z run Monday of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) had a 971 mb low off the Delmarva coast which would verify a monster storm! What a way to end 2010! Fingers crossed something comes from this event. I know all my fellow weather weenies are squirming in their seats to see this unfold.

Courtesy of ECMF http://www.ecmwf.int

Now we will be watching just how close this system will come to the coast...
For now, a cold few days for the Tri-State is all to worry about. Keep posted for this potential storm for later this weekend.

~ V.S.

The Winter Season is Upon Us!

For the past few days, the media has been hyping up a significant coastal storm that would create a pretty snowy situation for the Tri-State. Granted, our job as meteorologists warn the public of coming weather and try to hit the nail on the head when predict the weather. Our weather models can predict so many hours and days out then it becomes obsolete. Yes, we all want to know what the weather holds for us two weeks out. However, I will tell you this: a ten day forecast (cough cough weather weenies you know what I am referring to...) can give you a the vaguest idea of what the weather will be. Just one variable can change at any moment, and you can throw that forecast out the window! The prediction models can handle so much data and run so much analysis and such, this is why the forecasts are the most accurate just a few hours out. Imaging how much data is analyzed for a ten day time slot...data interpreted every three hours of variables that take into account equations (that will blow your mind!) performed by supercomputers and human interpretation...all this data is just so overwhelming!
Those you you who took Zois's synoptic and dynamics classes know these equations...All I can say is: Thank goodness for MatLab!
Some of us prefer some models over others when it comes to longer range forecasting. But all-in-all, when it comes to a final decision on the forecast, the models need to generally agree with each other. A few days ago, the models were predicting a surface low from the South redeveloping off the coast (Cape Hatteras/Delmarva). The moisture would be in place as well as more then enough cold air  to support snow through all the levels of the atmosphere. The models we also suggesting an upper level low to the West in just the perfect position for the coastal low to bomb out! This would mean the Tri-State would get a lot of snow (I mean a crap load of snow in one sitting, like a few feet load!). Alright, for that much snow suggested continuously for a few days, a early warning needs to be presented to the public.

Eastern GOES Infrared Image  Courtesy of NOAA/NWS

So what happened you may ask? Referring to the image above, high pressure sinking down moved off the coast through the evening Saturday. This southerly motion of the high creeps the surface low further off shore to deepen in the maritime. The only weather associated with this coastal low would be clouds and snow flurries (if that) for Southeastern Delaware, Southern parts of New Jersey and perhaps Long Island. 

Major bummer for us missing out on a snow storm. Something tells me this will be the theme for snow for us through the Winter...(referring to the Winter season forecast). 

Speaking of Winter...The first day of Winter is upon us! The first day of Winter in the northern hemisphere is this Tuesday, December 21st! Although it sure has felt like Winter the past few weeks, it will not be official until Tuesday!

The first day of Winter in the northern hemisphere, when the Moon is full, it will pass just about straight center through the Earth's shadow. According to NASA, this will happen to a for approximately a total of 72 'eerie' minutes in which an amber light will light across North America. The Lunar Eclipse will begin Tuesday morning at 1:33 a.m. EST. What will you see? You will see the Earth's shadow appearing as a 'dark-red bite at the edge of the lunar disc.' It will take about an hour for the 'bite to expand and swallow the entire moon.' This eclipse will come to an end at approximately 2:41 a.m. EST. NASA suggests to observe this moment at 3:17 a.m. to see the Moon in the deepest shadow which will show in shades of coppery reds.

Hopefully the weather holds up on the East coast to see the spectacular event!

~ V.S.

Winter Storm Warnings for the Boonie States?

When one thinks about the 'sticks,' and the boonies, they think about the Southern and Midwest states. Anything below the Mason Dixon is fare game to be considered the sticks, unless of course you live in a metro sticks, but it is the boonies nevertheless. Although I currently reside in New Jersey, I am a Southern Bell from Virginia, so it is safe for me to write about the sticks a boonies!
Generally, people in the Northern states have this notion that the South is warm. At least warmer compared to the North and Northeast. In part this statement is true. The South, especially certain regions, are warmer then others. However, you can't rule out colder weather from sinking in. Typically Florida, the Gulf states, and Texas are warmer then others. The past few weeks though, it has been quite cold, even in Florida, where the National Weather Service had to issue a freeze and frost warning when evening temperatures dipped into the 30s. Today, the freezing line (32 degrees F) was flirting its way into Georgia where freezing rain and snow fell.
There is a Winter Storm Warning from parts of Georgia, Virginia, parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana.
What? Snow in Kentucky and Tennessee and not Jersey? Well, Thursday evening, portions of southern Jersey will see accumulating snow up to an inch or so.
Now remember, snow in the south, even just a few inches, is enough to shut down the state. They don't get snow. They don't have the enough snowplowing equipment like what we have in the North. I mean considering the Winter season a few years ago, hopefully they have learned from that experience to be more prepared.
The map below shows the initial set of the event that is issuing Winter storm warnings across portions of the Midatlantic states. The troughing Arctic air mass that has been dominating the Eastern states, plaguing bitterly cold air is well, cold enough to support snowy precipitation. Remember a few posts ago when I wrote about airmass characteristics. Look down at your hands. They are probably cracked and dry. That is because this bitter cold Arctic airmass is a very dry airmass. It is so dry that it virtually extracts all the moisture out of you, everything to compensate the dryness. Taking that in mind, you can actually become even more dehydrated during the Winter months due to the dryness of the air. You are not sweating much like how you are in the Summer, so you don't even feel like you need water, when in fact your body is crying for a drop.
With the proper moisture in place, it will precipitate, but it will just take some time and a lot of love from the maritime. 

12/15 Forecast Courtesy of NWS/HPC/SPC/TPC

The cold air from the North will allow temperatures to flirt or stay below freezing (32 degrees F), at least on the windward side of the Appalachian Mountains where significant ice and snow accumulations could stack up. The moisture (the other low pressure area depicted in the above map) moving northeast from the South is holding the moisture. Both of these lows will merge through Tennessee, Kentucky, and Virginia. Upwards of a foot of snow could fall through the higher elevations before making it over the mountains. Once over the mountains, the leeward side, accumulations of nearly half a foot could fall. Why such a rage of snow accumulations between the sides of the mountains you may ask?

A little something called orographic lift. The image below shows this perfectly.

Orographic Lift

On the windward side (left) air parcels rise, moisten, and become cool. This cooling process creates clouds, and eventually, with enough moisture (the cloud becomes too heavy), precipitation will fall out. Once over top the mountain onto the leeward side (right) the air parcels have no place to go but down. This decention of the air dries out the air, so not much moisture is left over compared to the other side of the mountain. Oh atmospheric thermodynamics at its finest!

12/16/10 36 hour Forecast Courtesy of NWS/HPC/NCEP

As stated before, the two lows will converge as the pink arrows and will redevelop over the Atlantic, as another low is shown in the ocean Southeast of New Jersey. The low should stay far enough out at sea such that New Jersey should be all the influenced. Southern portions of New Jersey will be affected especially early evening i.e. the evening commute Thursday. This snow line will work its way as far North and along the I-295/ I-95 corridor. Central New Jersey; Mercer and Monmouth Counties could experience snow flurries or an isolated snow shower through the evening Thursday.

The cold air still lingers...just down right cold! Temperatures are still well below average for this time of year, and it is not even Winter (which begins next week already!!)! Break out the jackets. Stop by a Starbucks for a cup of joe or hot coco to warm you up because you are still going to need it.

Stay tuned for a potentially significant event for late this weekend.

"Baby it's cold outside..."

~ V.S.

More of Old Man Winter on the Way

Just when we all thought it was cold enough...there is more yet to come. For Tri-State, high temperatures merely in the middle 30s falling to the middle 20s by the evening was cold enough for most of us. It was quite lovely to see snow flurries to really help put us in the mood for the holiday season. The Great Lake snow machine has certainly been pumping out the snow. Outside of Buffalo and West Seneca, New York a few of snow has been accumulating. Close to home, it has been cold enough that the Ski areas in the Poconos have been making snow that that is a few feet thick that will last through the season.
We will have a bit a of a reprieve from the biting cold temperatures as much milder air will work its way in for all but a few hours. High pressure will continue through the area through much of Saturday which will be the better day of the weekend. Lighter winds then what we have had, with temperatures about five to ten degrees warmer then what we have felt (right around our average temperature for this time of year, perhaps a tad warmer).
Increasing clouds through the day Saturday, especially towards Saturday evening. Precipitation will spread through the area through Saturday evening. The onset does look to be rain and will continue as rain through Sunday as temperatures should remain above freezing (above 32 degrees F, 0 degrees C) and could rise through the night. Yes, even though the 'daylight' is not a factor this time, depending on the direction of the wind and the thicker the clouds along with added moisture, temperatures could rise. In fact, the highest temperature for Sunday could occur in the early morning hours, then fall through the day. The higher elevations; Northwest New Jersey and the Poconos will most likely have snow or wintry mix fall throughout the 'event' because it will be cold enough to support snow through the levels to the surface.
Just a note: this could be a rather tricky forecast considering this low is still in the developing stages. The track and such can still change, ergo changing the current forecast. As far now, the models are showing most of New Jersey and surrounding areas in the warm sector as southerly-southeasterly winds will advect (blowing warmer air into our area from the South) keeping the main surface low North and West on the onset. However, models have been showing the low tracking west to east through the area, bringing in some  pretty strong CAA (cold air advection). With that said, temperatures will begin to fall. Now, based on this, we are going to be playing the precipitation game. By the evening Sunday, there could be minor snow.....yes, SNOW accumulations, especially North and West of the Philadelphia area.
Sorry all of my grade school nuggets, it does not look like a snow day for you Monday, especially not in Jersey.
Towards Monday, an upper level trough is forecasted to deepen, allowing for a continued chance of snow showers through Tuesday. Cold air advection will be in full force Monday through Tuesday filtering in the coldest air of the season yet! This Arctic air will allow temperatures to get as high as the 20s! No, I did not mistake you. Tuesday and through the week, high temperatures will try to get to the middle 20s before falling to the teens and single digits in the outer suburbs and higher elevations. Cold, very cold and blustry!

Stay tuned for more discussion regarding the weather for the end of the week... things could start to get fun!
Bundle up and get ready for Old Man Winter (even though Winter does not begin until December 21st)!!!!

~ V.S.

Winter 2010-11 Forecast!

The moment you have been all waiting for....the Winter 2010-11 Forecast! After much thought and research I have come up with a synopsis for how this Winter will play out. Through much of the Summer, we experienced a rather Neutral oscillation (neither El Nino nor La Nina). As of late, and through Spring 2011, the oscillation has switched to La Nina. What does this mean for our Winter season? A cold Winter ahead my friends. In terms of precipitation, There may be a few instances where we could have a significant snow/ice storm (which I will discuss further below), but otherwise it will be a dry season. 
Since this past October, La Nina has been driving the climate and will continue to do so through the next season. The reason researchers know and can forecast this is partially due to the sea surface temperatures (sst) in the Pacific Ocean. In general over the Pacific, the overall sea surface temperatures have been some 2.5 degrees below average. These colder temperatures are not only measured near the surface, but were also measured (from buoys) about a hundred meters below the surface further supporting La Nina for the season. Keep in mind, a climate oscillation is not an area that encompasses a certain area like a few kilometers or miles. This 'area' is larger then an airmass, if you can remember this from a few posts ago. This La Nina oscillation ranges from the International Date Line in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, across the the ocean, up to Canada and through the States in the Northern Hemisphere; a whole lot of an area! Such El Nino and La Nina events as partially due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation that causes temperature 'swings' over the globe which varies during a longer time scale the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). La Nina is the colder cycle of ENSO.
Other variables supporting this La Nina event is Convection over Indonesia, which has continued to enhance the lower level trade winds and the upper level westerly winds.   


From this event and overall weather patterns that can and will occur during this coming season, research and past climate events generally give an idea temperatures and precipitation specifically over North America. This  Winter season, the following will occur: (Close your eyes and picture a map of the U.S. If you simply can't, there is a map below to cheat).

Courtesy of NOAA

-  Below average temperatures over Southern and Central Alaska, along the coast of California, running up North along the Northern parts of the States: Washington State to Minnesota, including Canada.
- Temperatures in the along the Rockies, Southwest, Texas, through the Southern and Central Plains, as well as the Mississippi River Valley will be above average. 
- Central Atlantic States through New England will experience a combination of both. The above average temperatures could slide as North as the Delmarva (Delaware and Maryland area). Our weather will be highly dependent on the direction of the Wind. Southwesterly winds will give is milder temperatures. Winds out of the North will give us the coldest temperatures. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York will be rather variable in terms of weather this Winter. Because we are located in such a vulnerable spot, we could be subject to a storm or to and especially the biting cold temperatures. 


- Precipitation in the Northwest will/could be above average. This includes northern parts of California. 
- Other areas of above average precipitation include parts of the Northern Rockies (North as in location, not elevation), Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and the Southern Great Lakes. Areas surrounding the Great Lakes could possibly experience some of the greatest snow, especially when the 'snow machine' gets started. This depends on how soon and long this colder air sticks around. Remember, the warmer the lakes remain, the greater the chance for snow, and a lot of it. 
- From Southern California, parts of the Southwest, Texas, and through the Gulf States, below average precipitation is expected. 
- This below average precipitation again, reaches up along the Central Atlantic states to the Delmarva. Again, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York are on the boarder line. 


This Winter season for the most part looks to be quite exciting, but not to mention a potential nightmare for we forecasters when it it comes down to predicting storms in our area. It will come down to the dreaded '540 line.' This line is know as a thickness value in the atmosphere. 540 stands for 5400 geopotential thickness between the atmospheric layers between 1000 mb (also known as the surface) and 500 mb. Thickness is the idea of the temperature and the moisture content of the air through this layer. We use this 'line' as a reference when forecasting the type of precipitation during the Winter months. 


Stay warm this Winter and remember to bare with us when forecasting your Winter weather...it's a tough job predicting Mother Nature!


~ V.S.

Plummeting Temperatures

The rain has fallen, winds were gusting. According to the local surface weather soundings, in an hour the temperature fell nearly ten (10) degrees with the passage of the cold front. Through much of mid-morning the temperature was pretty much consistent during the heavy rain event. Check below the stats. from the surface observations from Trenton, Mercer County Airport. Just in one hour (between 11:53-12:53) the pressure rose from 999.6 mb (as the front was passing through) to 1001.3 mb and rising, trying to regain stability. The temperature dropped from 63 degrees F (recorded at 11:53 a.m.) to 52 degrees F in the next hour and have been falling ever since and will continue to fall through the evening to the upper 20s by sunrise Thursday morning.

D a t e	Time (est)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Pressure		Precipitation (in.)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour		altimeter (in.)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
01	13:53	W 13	5.00	Light Rain Fog/Mist	BKN009 BKN027 OVC041	49	46			29.63	1002.7	0.02
01	12:53	NW 16 G 39	0.75	Heavy Rain Fog/Mist	BKN007 BKN015 OVC021	52	48	64	52	29.59	1001.3	0.34		1.21
01	11:53	S 22 G 37	5.00	Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy	OVC007	63	61			29.54	999.6	0.05
01	10:53	S 23 G 41	2.00	Fog/Mist and Breezy	OVC011	63	60			29.62	1002.4	0.23

Heavy rain fell through the area; as expected. the average rainfall was around and inch and a half or so. Just a note: Considering much, if not all, the leaves have fallen from trees. Those of you in areas where you do not need to bag your leaves, make sure your leaves are NOT blocking or covering the storm water drains in the streets! If you are walking around the dog around the block and happen to notice a pile of leaves over a storm drain, just take a second and clear the leaves. This will not only keep the streets from flooding but it will keep our waterways clean! The same goes for any excess garbage that may be in the grate of the storm drain.  Just pick it up and throw it away properly. We seriously need to pick up the slack for those who do not care about our environment! And, you can not honestly say that you have no idea where these storm drains are located. Many townships have marked these storm drains in hope that people will start to pay attention.
The front moved passed rather quickly following a middle level trough from the North West filtering in some pretty cold temperatures. Aside from rather sunny skies for the rest of the week, the temperatures will be quite chilly; trying to reach the middle 40s! High pressure move in from the Southwest but will not quite reach our area due to a low pressure area (the one that just affected our weather) will stall and redevelop over the Atlantic and have a stalled frontal boundary over the New England area (that will trigger snow showers there) keeping a relatively steady West to Northwest chilly flow (of air) through much of Saturday. Considering this flow, from this direction, keeping in mind the last post of the lake-effect white stuff ...a few increasing dark clouds and snow flurries can not be ruled out through Saturday.
As far as long term weather; we (forecasters) are watching an Alberta Clipper System (a who?) that is forecasted to move to the South of our area Saturday into Sunday which could trigger a snow shower or a few. What is an Alberta Clipper you may ask? Although it sound like something awful from an evil mother-in-law. However, this clipper is known as a fast moving low pressure system that moves out from Southeast Canada from the Province of Alberta in Southwest Canada.

Flow of an Alberta Clipper System

This travels through the Plains, Midwest, passing through the Great Lakes. You often hear of this term during late Fall and through the Winter. This low pressure area is typically accompanied by snow, light in nature, strong winds, and cold(er) temperatures. The image above shows the general flow of these clipper systems. Note the position of the final low; right over the Tri-State area. 

Again, this clipper system is as of now, forecasted to move more towards our South. With this forecasted track, increasing clouds and generally the same temperatures (with highs in the middle to lower 40s, falling to below freezing in the upper 20s towards the evening) will be the weather pattern through next week.

I have received quite a lot of requests and discussions about my take on the Winter 2010-2011 forecast. I can assure you that I need just one more day to formulate my forecast. I will post my Winter forecast tomorrow. I am not ready to give up on Fall and am no where near ready for the Winter! So please stay tuned for this discussion!

Starting the Snow Machine!

Although it is still the Fall season, aside from the little refreshing warmth early this week, it has been quite cold! Saturday was especially bitterly cold! However, the cold temperatures we (in the Tri-State) felt the past few days is not even comparable to single digits felt in the Northern Plains.
This post was inspired by a gorgeous friend who was interested in the idea of lake-effect snow. Right around this time of year through January, lake-effect snow is a pretty hot topic for the Great Lakes and surrounding areas; so why not write about it!
The general notion of the weather that occurs at a given moment or time is due to fronts i.e. cold, warm, stationary and so on. Cold fronts are followed by cooler air (CAA: cold air advection or movement of air) then what was previous in place prior to the frontal passage and so on. However, what the general public do not take into consideration that the weather and weather forecasts are largely influenced by air masses. An air mass is an extremely large body (area) of air which the properties of temperature and moisture content (humidity) are similar in any horizontal direction at any altitude. This area that an air mass encompasses is not just a few kilometers. It is more like a few thousand kilometers. Not only is temperature an important component. The actual source region of the air mass is a very important characteristic. These regions are where the air masses originate. In order for a such a huge mass of air to develop and to form characteristics from the source region, the air mass must remain stagnant over the region for a long(ish) period of time and thus will acquire the properties from the surface below.
There is one more part to the puzzle before I get to the snow machine. When it comes to air masses, there is a classification. Like mentioned before, air masses are classified according to their temperatures and humidities. There are warm and cold air masses, we well as there are moist and dry air masses. The image below refers the the kinds of air masses, their source regions, and the characteristics.

North American Air Masses

Now that we have a little background information on air masses, the idea of lake-effect snow can be explained. With air masses and source regions in mind, when a cold, dry air mass moves over a relatively warm body of water (the Great Lakes), heavy snow showers can form, also known as lake-effect snow! From November through January when the weather in the Mid-west is more of less dominated by clear and cold cP (continental polar) air, locations on the eastern shores of the Great Lakes often experience snow, sometimes heavy in nature. These snow showers that form on the downwind side of one the the lakes is known as lake-effect snow. The snow could fall as showers to even heavy snow squalls. Depending on the wind flow direction, part of a city/town area could experience just simply clouds while the other side of town could have a few inches of snow on the ground! The image below depicts the formation of lake-effect snow. 

Lake-Effect Snow Courtesy of MetEd

Between November and January, cold air moves over the Great Lakes when they are still relatively warm and not quite so frozen. Some studies have actually noted that it is the contrast in temperatures between the water and air that is the potential for snow showers. This difference can be as great as 45 degrees F! Referring to above, when cold air moves over the warmer water, the air mass is quickly warmed from below making the air more buoyant and less stable. Over the water, the water the vapor condenses into fog steam, warming as it rises and form cumuliform clouds that continue to grow and before more unstable. In time, these clouds will produce snow showers. Right on the eastern shores of the Great Lakes is the most snow. However, here in Jersey we have seen a few lake-effect snow flurries, but will never receive much accumulation. Once the air and clouds reach the eastern shores, additional lifting of air is provided by low laying hills. The terrain and the convergence of air slows down the amount of snow accumulation and the snow eventually tapers off leaving trace amounts or low laying cumulus clouds drifting over head. Over the Winter season, as the lakes begin to freeze, lake-effect snow showers become more numerous because there is less of a temperature contrast between the surface and the air. Just a note: the longer the distance over which the air mass travels, the greater the amount of warmth and moisture is taken from the waters, and the greater the potential for heavy snow. This lake-effect snow can bury a city in a matter of few days! In just a few days in December 2001, Buffalo, NY received just about 7 feet of snow. Compare that to Montague, NY in January 1997 that received over 7 feet of snow in less than 48 hours!

Let the snow factory open shop!

~ V.S. 

Happy Turkey Day!

Even though the past few days for us in the Tri-State was rather refreshing welcoming the mild temperatures. Some things just need to come to an end. In our case, we need to start having some kind of balance in the weather. The more the temperatures become mild and stay like that for days on end, the whole ecosystem will pretty much more or less get confused as to what season we are actually in. If you remember the Winter a year ago, we had a few days of unseasonably warm temperatures and the ground and plants began to 'defrost' from the cold. Trees and plant began to bud. Hibernation was disturbed. A week later another cold snap moved through damaging and killing all the budding plants that thought it was time to peek out.
Cycles, seasonal cycles. It is what makes the world go around. Mother Nature needs balance, we need balance to survive and exist.

The lovely high pressure from Canada that brought us sunny skies Wednesday will slide off towards the East through the evening as a rather strong cold front (with very cold temperatures following) will move through gracing us with lovely stormy weather for the holiday. Much like what I had mentioned the other day, the weather we will experience throughout the area will all be based on timing and placement (much like all weather events).  For the most part, the main event will not happen until early afternoon Thursday (for Western PA,NJ/NY). There is still time for smooth holiday travels before the weather takes a turn for the worse. Increasing clouds through the early morning hours will change to rain by afternoon becoming more steady as the day progresses.
The storm will continue to strengthen through the early morning hours Thursday before it reaches our area. A warm front will be placed to out southwest will become stronger and energized as it lifts and moves towards the northeast. There will be pretty strong warm air advection (waa) at the mid-levels which will add the the increase of clouds.
Yes, it is going to precipitate. The models have been predicting that for the past week. The main issue at hand, in income overrunning precipitation band  (a relatively warm air mass of greater density at the surface which is associated with embedded thunderstorms. Typically, overrunning occurs when warm air is riding over a layer of colder air) that which is positioned northeast of the warm front. However, models are hinting that the front will hit a wall of drier air, therefore not allowing a great deal of precipitation.
The fun part for this forecast come into play when trying to figure out where the wintry mix will fall. Yes, I did mention a lovely wintry mix. This is where the timing comes into play. The wind field will increase bringing in a very cold air from the Ohio Valley. A very cold airmass mixed with drier air will make it rather conducive for evaporative cooling. Pretty much all the model have hinted at evaporative cooling, which at this time, will knock down temperatures a few degrees through the whole area and could allow a wintry mix to fall to the surface. Little to no snow accumulation will occur Thursday.
No more mumble jumble...I'm getting myself too excited!
Ok. out of all of what I said: Increasing clouds through the morning Thursday. Rain is to be expected first followed by a wintry mix once we receive the colder air from the West. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for the potential for some nasty weather and for people to be advised on the holiday.
Cold temperatures will move in Thursday through Friday. Those of you waiting in line for Black Friday sales; bundle up! Expect temperatures early Friday to be in the lower 30s increasing through the day. More showers are possible and quite likely through Friday. At least the rest of the weekend will be nice. Breezy Saturday and it will feel quite cold considering high temperatures will only be in the middle 40s! Saturday evening....the coldest temperatures of the season! Expected lows will fall to the 20s!!!!

Safe travels, stay warm. Eat, drink, and be merry!

~ V.S.

Milder Air Moves In!

Milder air will make it way in Sunday evening and will stick around for much of the week. Unseasonable temperatures will be flirting with the 70s by Tuesday. Model ensembles are still not in agreement as far as the weather for the holiday week. As of yesterday evening, I had mentioned that there is a chance of showers in the late week; raining (no pun intended here :-p ) on your Thanksgiving Day parade. But hey, a turkey day touch football game in the rain could be SOO much fun!
Now, depending on who fast or slow this middle level low develops over the Great Lake area, would end up being a difference of clouds or rain or even a mix bag of precipitation treats for Thursday. The later the precip. move in, the greater the chance that of a freezing rain mix would fall over the Northern areas and higher elevations. The models are also suggesting that a triple point could move through the Southern parts of the area. A triple point is the intersection point between two boundaries like a cold front and a dry line for example. One of the main concerns here is the convection development i.e. thunderstorms. The triple point can also be said to be a gust front or a supercell (another one of my favorites!) where the warm moist inflow, the rain-cooled outflow from the forward flank downdraft, and the rear flank downdraft all intersect which is quite a favorable location for redevelopment of the storm or tornado formation (NWS). Refer to the image below for illustration of a triple point.

Surface Map depicts a triple point. Courtesy of Chasing Storms.

It has been noted by the models that a triple point could move through the area at some point Thursday which could trigger off a few storms especially to the southern parts of the areas mostly because of the warmer temperatures. However, with all said, this is just a POTENTIAL forecast of what COULD happen. All could change in the next model run, and will continue to change through the course of early week. What is certain for sure is a shot of colder air that will bring temperatures much below normal for the end of the week and weekend.

I will keep you updated on the holiday weather as changes are made. For near term expect warmer temperatures and mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers through much of Tuesday. 

~ V.S.

Getting Ready for the Holiday!

Some of the coldest weather of the season is yet to come!
A pocket of very cold arctic air; I'm talking about the single digits here, is stuck up in the northern plains (Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Minnesota), whom I might add, will get walloped with s hefty snow storm (a foot plus of snow) late this weekend through early week. Temperature currently in that region of the States are ranging from the 20s as daytime highs falling to the single digits, even flirting with 0 (zero) degrees F in the evening. Our Tri-State (thankfully) will not feel temperatures quite as cold this time around however, we still do have a good shot this Winter. 

Temperature Anomalies Courtesy of HPC/NCEP

For the rest of the weekend. High pressure will still play strong for much of Sunday,sinking South later Sunday evening. A cold front will stall out south of the area Sunday as a High pressure area pushes south from the North giving us another rather pleasant day of sunshine and seasonal(ish) temperatures we have had as of late. Clouds will be on the rise as is a risk of showers late Sunday due to the cold front (that was positioned in the South) lifts through our area as a warm front Sunday into Monday...This is when we will get a touch of the milder temperatures. 

Very warm temps over our area Tues! Courtesy of HPC/NCEP

With a southerly-southwesterly flow of air, temperatures will be pretty significantly warmer then Saturday and Sunday. We will be going from the 40s Sunday up to the 60s Monday! Clouds and showers will encompass the weather Monday through Tuesday. But the talk of the town will be the very mild temperatures! As of the latest models, The cold front from the west is forecasted to move in through Tuesday. As of now (again this can change), the front is expected to move through later Tuesday. With that said, the models are showing the the front could loose some of its moisture so not much rain could fall over our immediate area at that time as compared to the Western areas Tuesday. However, there could be a change in the forecast, and the front could end up moving faster or slower which puts us in that 'buffer zone' where we could actually get some heavy rain and storms or not so much.
As for now, I will play it safe and say that we may see some showers Tuesday. Otherwise cloudy skies and very warm temperatures (life flirting with the 70s warm!)


The dreaded holiday commute begins Wednesday. For those of you who are rather wise, the commute will begin Tuesday. The rain will move out by Wednesday and should be smooth sailing, well, as far as the weather goes. Traffic is another issue. 
Since it is a long way out forecast models are still trying to come in agreement with each other. At this time, a middle level low of moderate intensity is forecasted to move from the Northern Plains to the Great Lake region. Models are showing this to support a surface low that will develop and move from the Plains to the Great Lakes towards Thursday, Thanksgiving. Following this low are some very cold, below normal temperatures that will track into our area Friday. This is nothing like sitting in line early Black Friday morning in freezing temperatures! This unseasonable weather pattern is indicative of the La Nina Oscillation in which 
there is a variable Pacific Jet Stream streaming the Polar Jet through the Upper Plains down through New England. with more stormy weather and increased cold weather outbreaks; i.e. cooler and unseasonable weather.


Now, I don't know about you, but I am ready for Winter. I am really not looking forward to feeling the upper 60s, although it is usually welcomed, not now!


Stay tuned for more holiday updates!


~ V.S.

Taste of the Straight Line

Not only did I have to wake up at an ungodly hour this morning to prepare for my work day, I was awoken even earlier (at around 3 a.m.ish if you were wondering) to the marvelous sight outside my window! Most people would just roll over in bed and not bother with the sights and sounds of the weather. I on the other hand jump out of bed so fast and so awake, much like a kid running to see what goodies are under the tree Christmas morning. I admit, this was in part due to the fact that I was completely aware of what the weather last night (early this morning) had in store for us. I suppose I never really actually sleep well the night of or before a weather event just because I am anticipating what is to come. Yes, I already know. I am a freak.
The winds were howling and gusting up to 40 mph plus. According to the NWS, there was a recorded wind gust of 54.0 mph at 3:42 a.m. this morning at Trenton-Mercer Airport in Ewing, NJ that not only tore off parts of the roof on a hanger but also flipped and toppled planes on the tar-mat! Leaves were every where. Nearly none were left on the trees but a few. Some residents of Mercer County and other just of the Delaware River lost power. My business lost power and needless to say, made for such a lovely morning (but not in a good way)!
Straight-line wind derecheo associated with a curved cold front was the cause of all the destruction today.
Derecheo (derecho is Spanish meaning: straight). Derechos are associated with a band of thunderstorms and showers that are usually 'curved' in shape. However, the general criteria for a derecho is that the winds during the thunderstorm would have to be sustained at 58mph not gusting. In the case of last night, an intense (curved) cold front was moving across the area. The curvature  of the front bowed out storms and caused such strong winds. If you can remember a time when watching a weather report during a severe storm with the potential for tornadic activity, the meteorologists often mention watching out for a 'bow echo' which is a return on the RADAR in a mesoscale convective system (MCS's; which fyi is my favorite type of weather) in the formation of an archer's bow that produce severe weather and damage.

Formation of a bow echo.

The image below is shows the RADAR at 8:58:13 UTC, which is approximately 4:00 a.m. EDT. This is when the front passed through. Much of everyone was asleep when havoc was reeking just outside. Severe weather warnings were posted all throughout during this time. The purple line (that I drew) shows the curvature or bowing, of the front that caused such strong winds. 

NEXRAD RADAR. Courtesy of NCAR.

Winds were howling throughout the day following the frontal passage (the fropa); which by the the way looked absolutely gorgeous this morning towards sunrise. The calm after the storm will bring lovely weather once again. High pressure will dominate our weather once again. Sunny skies and seasonal temperatures will be the weather through the weekend. High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 50s falling to the middle to lower 30s with generally clear skies in the evening. Bellissimo!

Easter GOES Infrared Image. Courtesy of NOAA/NWS/NCEP

The image above is an infrared image showing the troughs (sinking air) and ridges (rising air); the battle between the lows (areas of clouds) and the highs (the clearer areas). Enjoy the Fall while it lasts, or whatever is left as far as the colors of the leaves on the trees. I am sure this past storm has swept Fall right out the door this morning; at least in parts of Jersey. Look on the bright side: the weekend is upon us with pleasant weather, making the storm clean-up at least a bit better ehh?

~ V.S.

Will Update Soon...

Hello All,
This week is crunch time my friends! I have been slacking on my weather posts as of late. my apologies. I will be back (back) on track as of this Saturday. See, I am taking the Praxis (II) exam this weekend and studying has literally been taking up all of my spare time, or what other free time I have outside of work.
I will leave you with the following:


1.) I know some of my fellow (tv) mets. have already made their winter weather forecasts. I will say that I have been looking into this and I am currently working out my forecast. Plus, honestly, it is just too early to forecast for a season that is still a little way out.


2.) Until my next post, I can promise you that the weather in the Tri-State will be quite lovely. That means this will be perfect weather to take advantage of! Sunny skies and temps flirting with the 60s falling to the 40s in the evening.


Enjoy the gorgeous weather and wish me luck!


~V.S.

Weird Weather

Considering that I am "THE weather woman" at the local Starbucks, there is quite a high expectation when it comes to knowing everything about the weather including details on the daily forecast. Today my friends, I am admitting to falling short on being knowledgeable about the cool weather the North East has experienced today (Monday). My only excuse is that for the past week despite the lovely curve ball life has thrown me, my head has been too far up my you know what, to even muster the energy to study and discuss the current weather. One of my lovely customers this morning came into the store looking for me to tell me all about the weather that we were having and wanted to know why, when he unfortunately found out that one, I was not in for my shift yet, and two, I didn't know what was going on besides it being a bit breezy this morning.
Now that I have done my research, let us talk weather!

So, what happened today in the North East, was a pretty rare event. Something to be quite excited about. After realizing what was going on, I wished I had known about this yesterday!
As of this morning, there was a deepening low pressure system off the Cape Cod coast and was moving Southwest! Storms typically do not move in the Southwestward direction. This storm was like a reverse Nor'easter... very cool. Nor'easters are systems that generally form off the East coast and move North and East. This storm was back tracking a Nor'easter. Considering how dry the air was in central Jersey that is, the dynamics from this particular storm did not hold has much 'umpf' as a typical Nor'easter.
For portions of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, a Wind Advisory was posted for the potential for winds of 20-30 mph, higher winds near the coast, throughout the day. The gradient (the rate of change with respect to distance of a variable quantity, as temperature or pressure, in direction of max. change. NWS.) was forecasted to tighten; meaning there was a strengthening in the system and potential for high winds, as the system deepened (decrease in central pressure of a surface low systems; an intensifying storm) on its Southwest trek.
Towards the afternoon, when the low reached it intensity, the wind advisory that had been earlier posted was canceled as upper air sounding became less adiabatic (changes in temperature caused by the expansion; cooling, or compression, warming, of an area of air as it rises or descends in the atmosphere, with no exchange of heat with the surrounding air (NWS)). As the low began to retrograde (the movement in the opposite direction) at its peek and slowly began to stabilize, as drier air crept its way wrapping around the system. The dry air was was kept the bulk of the precipitation from falling. Otherwise, categorical precipitation could have fallen. Some areas, mostly in the higher elevations, but was also observed locally, experienced sleet. The drier air that was over our air evaporated (evaporation is a cooling process) cooled our air mass which made it possible for sleet to fall.
Now, 'sleet' is along with other types of precipitation is a pretty neat phenomena. I will save that lesson for another time. Sleet is defined as pellets of ice composed of frozen raindrops or refrozen partially melted snowflakes. Do not be confused with hail, because sleet in typically smaller than hail; usually hurts and stings a lot more when hit by it, unless of course you're hit by a baseball size hail ball that was falling at 75 mph plus!

Depiction of Sleet Formation. Courtesy of NWS

The higher elevations had sleet and snow flurries along with portions of Massachusetts and Connecticut. Tis' the time for snow to fall! Scattered showers and rain fell in central New Jersey. I might add, it was quite cool to see today a cutoff line in the sky to the West in Pennsylvania where you could see a separation between our gloomy skies rain skies and the sun and clouds.

Red arrows show counterclockwise wise circulation, white arrow shows system track .Courtesy of NOAA/NWS

NOAA GOES East Infrared Image. Courtesy of NOAA

High pressure is forecasted to move in Wednesday setting up shop for most of the week. With the exception of early Wednesday with few clouds, mostly sunny skies is what the hi-light is going to be. Temperatures will get back to seasonal ranging in the 50s, falling to middle to upper 30s towards the evenings.

~V.S.

Time to Fall Back

Don't forget to turn your clocks BACK an HOUR this evening before you hit the sack.
We gain an extra hour of sleep!! Hoorahhh!!!

Just remember this: 'Spring Ahead and Fall Back' to help you remember when Daylight Saving Time occurs.
Every first Sunday of November each year, at 2:00 a.m, we turn our clocks back an hour which thus changes our clocks back to the Standard Time. One of the of reasons behind Daylight Saving Time is that it will essentially allow less energy to be used by buildings and homes in order to take advantage of the longer daylight hours, which was first established during World War. This helped save energy for coal and war production by taking advantage of the longer daylight hours from April though October. After World War II, the the government still required the States to use Daylight Saving Time however, did cause confusion due some states and communities not accepting the time change. Due to this, in 1966, Congress passed the Uniform Time Act which standardized Daylight Saving Time (DST).

Blue: DST Observed
Orange: DST No Longer Observed
Red: DST Never Observed

Other then the U.S., many other countries have been using Daylight Saving Time since the late 1800s. Although it is quite nice to gain an hour of sleep during the Fall and Winter because Lord knows, most of the population does not get enough sleep (yes, I do pride myself on making it paramount that I receive my 8 hours of sleep each night), the DST is still quite a controversial issue. Additional sunlight in the Spring and Summer months add that extra sunlight benefit to agriculture, sports, and outside activities. As mentioned early on, one of the main goals of DST was to be able to reduce the usage of evening electricity.
However, if not on top of the time change, we all know that it can make an otherwise quite pleasant day, turn upside down; running late or arriving too early, disruption in travel and such. Thankfully today, most electronic devices; computers and cell phones have a coded program within that will automatically change, once the time change comes around.
The modern thought is that ancient civilizations adjusted the daily schedules and such based on the sun, in order to be more flexible was thought to be modern and convenient then today's DST. This was done by dividing the daylight into 12 hour increments disregarding the length of day such that each daylight hour becomes longer towards the summer.
According to one of my favorite proverbs, author Benjamin Franklin wrote, "Early to bed, and early to rise, makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise." This was published to suggest settlers to economize using candles by rising earlier to use the morning sunlight and use less candle light.

Something cool: considering the season transition in the Northern Hemisphere is towards the colder seasons, and the seasons transitions in the Southern Hemisphere are towards the warmer seasons, the beginning and ending dates for DST are the reverse for the Southern Hemisphere.

Although having that extra hour of sunlight during the warmer months is beneficial to our health which additional Vitamin D can help boost the immune system. However, increased exposure could lead to an increase rick in skin cancer cases. Changing the time disrupts sleep. Getting the body back on a sleeping pattern could take weeks to adjust. A Swedish study in 2008 found that heart attacks were significantly more common the first few weeks after the spring transition, and were significantly less common following the fall time transition. Ergo there is the link between sleep and health...I think more people should heed Franklin's proverb!
Why can't we just leave the clocks the way they are now. Just throw DST out. I guess it is just the way things are and have been for years and we just need to adjust.

Now, don't forget to chance your clocks!

~ V.S.

Back on Track

 After my disappearing act this past week, things are back on track. Well, somewhat. A beautiful and special woman in my life just passed away this past Sunday. Grieving and loving memories have filled my heart watching her (body) die, with her spirit strong, right in front of my eyes this past week. Needless to say, life this week has been quite challenging. However, through all this I have learned, even more than what I knew before; how deep love runs and the strength to not fear.
This lovely woman is an inspiration. She is pure love. She is not here walking the Earth with us anymore, but is dancing with the love of her life in the heavens above. She is smiling down on us. She is waiting for the day we will meet again.

Rest in Peace Mom-Mom. Miss you more every moment, and can't wait to see you again.

Rose M. Schemelia June 7, 1927- October 31, 2010


As far as the weather goes...

- Portions of the South East Coast are in Freeze and Frost Advisories and Warnings; not a good thing for our crops at this time of the year.

- The hurricane season is still not over...Hurricane Tomas will pay a visit to the Atlantic. Hurricane Warnings have been posted East of Florida and the Carolina's with Hurricane and Tropical Storm conditions expected through much of the weekend.

Hurricane Tomas Storm Track. Courtesy of NOAA/NWS.

- Snow! Winter Storm Warnings posted for parts of West Virginia. About an foot (12 inches) or so is expected to fall through Saturday.

- Ski resorts in parts of the Northern North East are already making snow! It is certainly cold enough! High temperatures are getting as high as the 40s, falling to the bone chilling 20s in the evening with scattered snow showers/flurries throughout the days.

- High Pressure dominates our Tri-State area. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the middle to lower 50s for daytime highs. Clear skies and very chilly temperatures in the evenings with temperatures in the 30s! This week is going to be one of the best weeks to check out leaves changing colors before they fall for the season.
A few weeks ago, my Honey and I went to the Delaware Water Gap. One word to sum it all up: Breathtaking. Below are some of our favorite pictures we took on our adventure!

Bella! <3



Enjoy this Fall weather!!


** Remember to change the clocks back an hour Saturday evening!**

~V.S.