Happy Turkey Day!

Even though the past few days for us in the Tri-State was rather refreshing welcoming the mild temperatures. Some things just need to come to an end. In our case, we need to start having some kind of balance in the weather. The more the temperatures become mild and stay like that for days on end, the whole ecosystem will pretty much more or less get confused as to what season we are actually in. If you remember the Winter a year ago, we had a few days of unseasonably warm temperatures and the ground and plants began to 'defrost' from the cold. Trees and plant began to bud. Hibernation was disturbed. A week later another cold snap moved through damaging and killing all the budding plants that thought it was time to peek out.
Cycles, seasonal cycles. It is what makes the world go around. Mother Nature needs balance, we need balance to survive and exist.

The lovely high pressure from Canada that brought us sunny skies Wednesday will slide off towards the East through the evening as a rather strong cold front (with very cold temperatures following) will move through gracing us with lovely stormy weather for the holiday. Much like what I had mentioned the other day, the weather we will experience throughout the area will all be based on timing and placement (much like all weather events).  For the most part, the main event will not happen until early afternoon Thursday (for Western PA,NJ/NY). There is still time for smooth holiday travels before the weather takes a turn for the worse. Increasing clouds through the early morning hours will change to rain by afternoon becoming more steady as the day progresses.
The storm will continue to strengthen through the early morning hours Thursday before it reaches our area. A warm front will be placed to out southwest will become stronger and energized as it lifts and moves towards the northeast. There will be pretty strong warm air advection (waa) at the mid-levels which will add the the increase of clouds.
Yes, it is going to precipitate. The models have been predicting that for the past week. The main issue at hand, in income overrunning precipitation band  (a relatively warm air mass of greater density at the surface which is associated with embedded thunderstorms. Typically, overrunning occurs when warm air is riding over a layer of colder air) that which is positioned northeast of the warm front. However, models are hinting that the front will hit a wall of drier air, therefore not allowing a great deal of precipitation.
The fun part for this forecast come into play when trying to figure out where the wintry mix will fall. Yes, I did mention a lovely wintry mix. This is where the timing comes into play. The wind field will increase bringing in a very cold air from the Ohio Valley. A very cold airmass mixed with drier air will make it rather conducive for evaporative cooling. Pretty much all the model have hinted at evaporative cooling, which at this time, will knock down temperatures a few degrees through the whole area and could allow a wintry mix to fall to the surface. Little to no snow accumulation will occur Thursday.
No more mumble jumble...I'm getting myself too excited!
Ok. out of all of what I said: Increasing clouds through the morning Thursday. Rain is to be expected first followed by a wintry mix once we receive the colder air from the West. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for the potential for some nasty weather and for people to be advised on the holiday.
Cold temperatures will move in Thursday through Friday. Those of you waiting in line for Black Friday sales; bundle up! Expect temperatures early Friday to be in the lower 30s increasing through the day. More showers are possible and quite likely through Friday. At least the rest of the weekend will be nice. Breezy Saturday and it will feel quite cold considering high temperatures will only be in the middle 40s! Saturday evening....the coldest temperatures of the season! Expected lows will fall to the 20s!!!!

Safe travels, stay warm. Eat, drink, and be merry!

~ V.S.