Winter Storm Watches Posted

Most of us waking up this morning, especially the kids, will feel a bit disappointed looking outside and there be no snow. Well, at least in the Tri-State. New Jersey has been spared a few storms while other parts of the country have been witness to one of the most active Winter seasons in years! 

This monster storm that we have been watching is giving forecasters a run for their money. Model guidance has been suggesting a strengthening Nor'easter redeveloping off the East Coast. It is about 24 hours out now, and we are now starting to have some kind of agreement between models and are watching the story unfold. Nevertheless, when I checkout out the National Weather Service this morning, It was quite amusing to see (more or less) the entire East Coast listed in weather watches or warnings. From freeze watches and warnings in Florida to winter storm watches from the south eastern tip of South Carolina extending as far north as north eastern Maine and every state in between! I can not remember the last time I saw such a wide range of warnings. Which mind you, shows that the forecast for this storm is still uncertain and through the day Saturday, the watches and warnings will be changed accordingly. But it does not hurt to be prepared for the worst. 

The winter storm watch posted for our area suggests six inches or more is possible to fall along with gusting winds up to 25-30 mph Sunday through Monday. Now, this suggested accumulation is based on the low creeping more towards the West. Again, this low pressure area is still in the works along the Southern states. The exact track will be determined by the upper level flow. As the upper level trough sharpens as it moves East, it will likely form a cut off low; A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from the basic current and move independent of that current (NWS). Now the tricky part comes into play here. Guidance has suggested that this low will move far enough North and East that it will only have a minor impact on the area (perhaps a coating to an inch or so of snow). Or it could move a little more to the West and we could see half a foot. As of now, heavy snow has been booted out of the forecast, but the forecast can change at any moment. 

The main issue following the storm; very cold and blustery! Temperatures will be reaching to get out of the 20s along with 25-30 mph wind gusts, equals bitterly cold temperatures Monday through midweek. 

Updates will be followed up accordingly so check back often. 

For now, have a happy and blessed Christmas.

~ V.S.