Christmas Forecast and Potential Significant Northeast Snow

The western coast has been inundated with such rain, that has made the record books. Nearly twenty some odd inches plus of rain...yes, the liquid rain has fallen near the coast and low lands; streets turned into rivers, mudslides galore, unthinkable beach erosion. The fires as of late have utterly destroyed the foothills and surrounding lands that were left. The hillsides and such would be able to handle most of the water damage, but the fires have left the soil and forest at such a vulnerable state that the waters just wash over everything.
 Up in the higher elevations by Thursday, another eight (8) or more feet of snow will have fallen on top of the thirteen feet that has already fallen as of late. Talk about skiing on that kind of fresh powder. I can not fathom how these ski slopes can handle such significant snow amounts and still be open for business!
There is and has been quite a lot of weather going on. But now, the focus on everyone's mind is whether or not we, in the Tri-State, will have a white Christmas...

Much like all of you, I would want nothing more then to enjoy the glistening of ice on the trees, snowmen decked out in holiday gear on front lawns along with a few inches of snow laying on the ground. That, is a lovely image of what Christmas and the new year should be like. Well, if you live in or are visiting places that have had recent snow; that image sound a bit right. However, for much of us in New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania and New York well, not so much. We could have seen some snow accumulations that could have stuck around through this week if that past storm hung a little more to the West. Instead it went further East out to sea. This pattern has been trend of most of the models.

Now, this coming event could be rather significant. Or it could be nothing event. I think the major thing surrounding this event is the fact that it will develop and impact such a significant weekend because of the holiday; the holiday itself, people traveling and such. So we are watching this event unfold every model run and are watching what we say very closely here.
One this is for sure: there will be enough cold air in place to support snow, so it will have the Christmas 'feel' to the air. Now, all we need is this low to track up the coast then... bam!

I should mention the near term weather leading to the weekend as there will be a lot of people out and about that should be prepared. Although temperatures will be back up near the average range (flirting with the 40s) Thursday through Friday, gusting winds will only make it feel just as cold as it has been for the past few weeks. Winds gusting up to 30mph will make wind chills feel like 20s!
Models are now stating to come into agreement as when this storm will affect the East coast. As of now, for the most part the forecast models are indicating the possibility for a CHANCE of SNOW SHOWERS Christmas (Saturday) evening. The low pressure system will be developing over the Eastern Gulf States through much of Saturday. So far, much of the guidance from the models indicate that Saturday, for the most part will be dry and cold. However, a little 'wishcasting' can't really hurt...I don't want to get hopes high, but just even a snowflake falling on Saturday will 'make' Christmas.
Although there is still uncertainty as to what exactly will unfold, there is still some medium range forecasts that show this system affecting the area Sunday through Monday. These forecasts show that this could be a rather significant for the Northeast. We are still watching the jet streak off shore from California that will quickly move through the jet stream affecting the Southern states along the way reaching the Gulf States by Saturday. The main thing that is being watched is whether or not phasing, if any, as the Northern jet streak could dip into the long wave trough that could be in ideal position. If this occurs, it could mean significant snow accumulations through the Delmarva and New Jersey Sunday through Monday. Guidance shows this low slowing down (hence, the snow forecast pushed back for later weekend) giving it time to deepen through the levels, with the greatest storm intensification occurring over the Mid-Atlantic states (ah-hemm, LOVE IT!) The 12z run Monday of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) had a 971 mb low off the Delmarva coast which would verify a monster storm! What a way to end 2010! Fingers crossed something comes from this event. I know all my fellow weather weenies are squirming in their seats to see this unfold.

Courtesy of ECMF http://www.ecmwf.int

Now we will be watching just how close this system will come to the coast...
For now, a cold few days for the Tri-State is all to worry about. Keep posted for this potential storm for later this weekend.

~ V.S.