The Winter Season is Upon Us!

For the past few days, the media has been hyping up a significant coastal storm that would create a pretty snowy situation for the Tri-State. Granted, our job as meteorologists warn the public of coming weather and try to hit the nail on the head when predict the weather. Our weather models can predict so many hours and days out then it becomes obsolete. Yes, we all want to know what the weather holds for us two weeks out. However, I will tell you this: a ten day forecast (cough cough weather weenies you know what I am referring to...) can give you a the vaguest idea of what the weather will be. Just one variable can change at any moment, and you can throw that forecast out the window! The prediction models can handle so much data and run so much analysis and such, this is why the forecasts are the most accurate just a few hours out. Imaging how much data is analyzed for a ten day time slot...data interpreted every three hours of variables that take into account equations (that will blow your mind!) performed by supercomputers and human interpretation...all this data is just so overwhelming!
Those you you who took Zois's synoptic and dynamics classes know these equations...All I can say is: Thank goodness for MatLab!
Some of us prefer some models over others when it comes to longer range forecasting. But all-in-all, when it comes to a final decision on the forecast, the models need to generally agree with each other. A few days ago, the models were predicting a surface low from the South redeveloping off the coast (Cape Hatteras/Delmarva). The moisture would be in place as well as more then enough cold air  to support snow through all the levels of the atmosphere. The models we also suggesting an upper level low to the West in just the perfect position for the coastal low to bomb out! This would mean the Tri-State would get a lot of snow (I mean a crap load of snow in one sitting, like a few feet load!). Alright, for that much snow suggested continuously for a few days, a early warning needs to be presented to the public.

Eastern GOES Infrared Image  Courtesy of NOAA/NWS

So what happened you may ask? Referring to the image above, high pressure sinking down moved off the coast through the evening Saturday. This southerly motion of the high creeps the surface low further off shore to deepen in the maritime. The only weather associated with this coastal low would be clouds and snow flurries (if that) for Southeastern Delaware, Southern parts of New Jersey and perhaps Long Island. 

Major bummer for us missing out on a snow storm. Something tells me this will be the theme for snow for us through the Winter...(referring to the Winter season forecast). 

Speaking of Winter...The first day of Winter is upon us! The first day of Winter in the northern hemisphere is this Tuesday, December 21st! Although it sure has felt like Winter the past few weeks, it will not be official until Tuesday!

The first day of Winter in the northern hemisphere, when the Moon is full, it will pass just about straight center through the Earth's shadow. According to NASA, this will happen to a for approximately a total of 72 'eerie' minutes in which an amber light will light across North America. The Lunar Eclipse will begin Tuesday morning at 1:33 a.m. EST. What will you see? You will see the Earth's shadow appearing as a 'dark-red bite at the edge of the lunar disc.' It will take about an hour for the 'bite to expand and swallow the entire moon.' This eclipse will come to an end at approximately 2:41 a.m. EST. NASA suggests to observe this moment at 3:17 a.m. to see the Moon in the deepest shadow which will show in shades of coppery reds.

Hopefully the weather holds up on the East coast to see the spectacular event!

~ V.S.