Milder Air Moves In!

Milder air will make it way in Sunday evening and will stick around for much of the week. Unseasonable temperatures will be flirting with the 70s by Tuesday. Model ensembles are still not in agreement as far as the weather for the holiday week. As of yesterday evening, I had mentioned that there is a chance of showers in the late week; raining (no pun intended here :-p ) on your Thanksgiving Day parade. But hey, a turkey day touch football game in the rain could be SOO much fun!
Now, depending on who fast or slow this middle level low develops over the Great Lake area, would end up being a difference of clouds or rain or even a mix bag of precipitation treats for Thursday. The later the precip. move in, the greater the chance that of a freezing rain mix would fall over the Northern areas and higher elevations. The models are also suggesting that a triple point could move through the Southern parts of the area. A triple point is the intersection point between two boundaries like a cold front and a dry line for example. One of the main concerns here is the convection development i.e. thunderstorms. The triple point can also be said to be a gust front or a supercell (another one of my favorites!) where the warm moist inflow, the rain-cooled outflow from the forward flank downdraft, and the rear flank downdraft all intersect which is quite a favorable location for redevelopment of the storm or tornado formation (NWS). Refer to the image below for illustration of a triple point.

Surface Map depicts a triple point. Courtesy of Chasing Storms.

It has been noted by the models that a triple point could move through the area at some point Thursday which could trigger off a few storms especially to the southern parts of the areas mostly because of the warmer temperatures. However, with all said, this is just a POTENTIAL forecast of what COULD happen. All could change in the next model run, and will continue to change through the course of early week. What is certain for sure is a shot of colder air that will bring temperatures much below normal for the end of the week and weekend.

I will keep you updated on the holiday weather as changes are made. For near term expect warmer temperatures and mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers through much of Tuesday. 

~ V.S.