Getting Ready for the Holiday!

Some of the coldest weather of the season is yet to come!
A pocket of very cold arctic air; I'm talking about the single digits here, is stuck up in the northern plains (Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Minnesota), whom I might add, will get walloped with s hefty snow storm (a foot plus of snow) late this weekend through early week. Temperature currently in that region of the States are ranging from the 20s as daytime highs falling to the single digits, even flirting with 0 (zero) degrees F in the evening. Our Tri-State (thankfully) will not feel temperatures quite as cold this time around however, we still do have a good shot this Winter. 

Temperature Anomalies Courtesy of HPC/NCEP

For the rest of the weekend. High pressure will still play strong for much of Sunday,sinking South later Sunday evening. A cold front will stall out south of the area Sunday as a High pressure area pushes south from the North giving us another rather pleasant day of sunshine and seasonal(ish) temperatures we have had as of late. Clouds will be on the rise as is a risk of showers late Sunday due to the cold front (that was positioned in the South) lifts through our area as a warm front Sunday into Monday...This is when we will get a touch of the milder temperatures. 

Very warm temps over our area Tues! Courtesy of HPC/NCEP

With a southerly-southwesterly flow of air, temperatures will be pretty significantly warmer then Saturday and Sunday. We will be going from the 40s Sunday up to the 60s Monday! Clouds and showers will encompass the weather Monday through Tuesday. But the talk of the town will be the very mild temperatures! As of the latest models, The cold front from the west is forecasted to move in through Tuesday. As of now (again this can change), the front is expected to move through later Tuesday. With that said, the models are showing the the front could loose some of its moisture so not much rain could fall over our immediate area at that time as compared to the Western areas Tuesday. However, there could be a change in the forecast, and the front could end up moving faster or slower which puts us in that 'buffer zone' where we could actually get some heavy rain and storms or not so much.
As for now, I will play it safe and say that we may see some showers Tuesday. Otherwise cloudy skies and very warm temperatures (life flirting with the 70s warm!)


The dreaded holiday commute begins Wednesday. For those of you who are rather wise, the commute will begin Tuesday. The rain will move out by Wednesday and should be smooth sailing, well, as far as the weather goes. Traffic is another issue. 
Since it is a long way out forecast models are still trying to come in agreement with each other. At this time, a middle level low of moderate intensity is forecasted to move from the Northern Plains to the Great Lake region. Models are showing this to support a surface low that will develop and move from the Plains to the Great Lakes towards Thursday, Thanksgiving. Following this low are some very cold, below normal temperatures that will track into our area Friday. This is nothing like sitting in line early Black Friday morning in freezing temperatures! This unseasonable weather pattern is indicative of the La Nina Oscillation in which 
there is a variable Pacific Jet Stream streaming the Polar Jet through the Upper Plains down through New England. with more stormy weather and increased cold weather outbreaks; i.e. cooler and unseasonable weather.


Now, I don't know about you, but I am ready for Winter. I am really not looking forward to feeling the upper 60s, although it is usually welcomed, not now!


Stay tuned for more holiday updates!


~ V.S.