As anticipated, the models are beginning to agree and the story is unfolding to be a monster of a storm. The funny thing is that a week ago, guidance was hinting at an epic snow storm for the East coast. But things shifted changed a little, nothing was quite agreeing. Then, bam! The worst case scenario from this system is about to unveil through Monday.
The ENTIRE state of New Jersey in under a Winter Storm Warning and the NYC Metro area is under a Blizzard Warning. My, has the forecast changed!
The following is how the next 36 hours will play out:
Through Saturday, the surface low will continue to develop over the Southern states as it takes its eastward journey. Again, there is still a little bit of wiggle room in terms of the storm track. Keep in mind: a deviation of just a 50 miles or so can make a huge change in the forecast meaning more or less snow. All the models seem to agree on the track however, there seem to slightly disagree on the QPF.
When will it all start you may ask? Starting Sunday morning snow flurries/showers will spread across southern portions of Jersey then working Northward. The worst of the snow falling in the evening hours Sunday through Monday. Despite the falling snow and potential accumulations, the wind will be another issue. Gusting winds of 25-30 mph will make for blizzard-like conditions especially towards the evening.
As far as total snow accumulations goes, I do believe this storm will keep on track. The coast will receive higher amounts compared to inland along with stronger winds. For central parts of New Jersey and along the 95 corridor, I think between 10-12 inches and locally heavier amounts could verify. Blizzard conditions and blowing snow could very well be the case for the 'burbs and rural areas. Below is an estimated snow accumulation map derived from the NWS.
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| Snow Storm Totals Courtesy of NWS |
Happy Snowing!
~ V.S
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