Just when we all thought it was cold enough...there is more yet to come. For Tri-State, high temperatures merely in the middle 30s falling to the middle 20s by the evening was cold enough for most of us. It was quite lovely to see snow flurries to really help put us in the mood for the holiday season. The Great Lake snow machine has certainly been pumping out the snow. Outside of Buffalo and West Seneca, New York a few of snow has been accumulating. Close to home, it has been cold enough that the Ski areas in the Poconos have been making snow that that is a few feet thick that will last through the season.
We will have a bit a of a reprieve from the biting cold temperatures as much milder air will work its way in for all but a few hours. High pressure will continue through the area through much of Saturday which will be the better day of the weekend. Lighter winds then what we have had, with temperatures about five to ten degrees warmer then what we have felt (right around our average temperature for this time of year, perhaps a tad warmer).
Increasing clouds through the day Saturday, especially towards Saturday evening. Precipitation will spread through the area through Saturday evening. The onset does look to be rain and will continue as rain through Sunday as temperatures should remain above freezing (above 32 degrees F, 0 degrees C) and could rise through the night. Yes, even though the 'daylight' is not a factor this time, depending on the direction of the wind and the thicker the clouds along with added moisture, temperatures could rise. In fact, the highest temperature for Sunday could occur in the early morning hours, then fall through the day. The higher elevations; Northwest New Jersey and the Poconos will most likely have snow or wintry mix fall throughout the 'event' because it will be cold enough to support snow through the levels to the surface.
Just a note: this could be a rather tricky forecast considering this low is still in the developing stages. The track and such can still change, ergo changing the current forecast. As far now, the models are showing most of New Jersey and surrounding areas in the warm sector as southerly-southeasterly winds will advect (blowing warmer air into our area from the South) keeping the main surface low North and West on the onset. However, models have been showing the low tracking west to east through the area, bringing in some pretty strong CAA (cold air advection). With that said, temperatures will begin to fall. Now, based on this, we are going to be playing the precipitation game. By the evening Sunday, there could be minor snow.....yes, SNOW accumulations, especially North and West of the Philadelphia area.
Sorry all of my grade school nuggets, it does not look like a snow day for you Monday, especially not in Jersey.
Towards Monday, an upper level trough is forecasted to deepen, allowing for a continued chance of snow showers through Tuesday. Cold air advection will be in full force Monday through Tuesday filtering in the coldest air of the season yet! This Arctic air will allow temperatures to get as high as the 20s! No, I did not mistake you. Tuesday and through the week, high temperatures will try to get to the middle 20s before falling to the teens and single digits in the outer suburbs and higher elevations. Cold, very cold and blustry!
Stay tuned for more discussion regarding the weather for the end of the week... things could start to get fun!
Bundle up and get ready for Old Man Winter (even though Winter does not begin until December 21st)!!!!
~ V.S.
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