Plummeting Temperatures

The rain has fallen, winds were gusting. According to the local surface weather soundings, in an hour the temperature fell nearly ten (10) degrees with the passage of the cold front. Through much of mid-morning the temperature was pretty much consistent during the heavy rain event. Check below the stats. from the surface observations from Trenton, Mercer County Airport. Just in one hour (between 11:53-12:53) the pressure rose from 999.6 mb (as the front was passing through) to 1001.3 mb and rising, trying to regain stability. The temperature dropped from 63 degrees F (recorded at 11:53 a.m.) to 52 degrees F in the next hour and have been falling ever since and will continue to fall through the evening to the upper 20s by sunrise Thursday morning.

D a t e	Time (est)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Pressure		Precipitation (in.)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour		altimeter (in.)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
01	13:53	W 13	5.00	Light Rain Fog/Mist	BKN009 BKN027 OVC041	49	46			29.63	1002.7	0.02
01	12:53	NW 16 G 39	0.75	Heavy Rain Fog/Mist	BKN007 BKN015 OVC021	52	48	64	52	29.59	1001.3	0.34		1.21
01	11:53	S 22 G 37	5.00	Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy	OVC007	63	61			29.54	999.6	0.05
01	10:53	S 23 G 41	2.00	Fog/Mist and Breezy	OVC011	63	60			29.62	1002.4	0.23

Heavy rain fell through the area; as expected. the average rainfall was around and inch and a half or so. Just a note: Considering much, if not all, the leaves have fallen from trees. Those of you in areas where you do not need to bag your leaves, make sure your leaves are NOT blocking or covering the storm water drains in the streets! If you are walking around the dog around the block and happen to notice a pile of leaves over a storm drain, just take a second and clear the leaves. This will not only keep the streets from flooding but it will keep our waterways clean! The same goes for any excess garbage that may be in the grate of the storm drain.  Just pick it up and throw it away properly. We seriously need to pick up the slack for those who do not care about our environment! And, you can not honestly say that you have no idea where these storm drains are located. Many townships have marked these storm drains in hope that people will start to pay attention.
The front moved passed rather quickly following a middle level trough from the North West filtering in some pretty cold temperatures. Aside from rather sunny skies for the rest of the week, the temperatures will be quite chilly; trying to reach the middle 40s! High pressure move in from the Southwest but will not quite reach our area due to a low pressure area (the one that just affected our weather) will stall and redevelop over the Atlantic and have a stalled frontal boundary over the New England area (that will trigger snow showers there) keeping a relatively steady West to Northwest chilly flow (of air) through much of Saturday. Considering this flow, from this direction, keeping in mind the last post of the lake-effect white stuff ...a few increasing dark clouds and snow flurries can not be ruled out through Saturday.
As far as long term weather; we (forecasters) are watching an Alberta Clipper System (a who?) that is forecasted to move to the South of our area Saturday into Sunday which could trigger a snow shower or a few. What is an Alberta Clipper you may ask? Although it sound like something awful from an evil mother-in-law. However, this clipper is known as a fast moving low pressure system that moves out from Southeast Canada from the Province of Alberta in Southwest Canada.

Flow of an Alberta Clipper System

This travels through the Plains, Midwest, passing through the Great Lakes. You often hear of this term during late Fall and through the Winter. This low pressure area is typically accompanied by snow, light in nature, strong winds, and cold(er) temperatures. The image above shows the general flow of these clipper systems. Note the position of the final low; right over the Tri-State area. 

Again, this clipper system is as of now, forecasted to move more towards our South. With this forecasted track, increasing clouds and generally the same temperatures (with highs in the middle to lower 40s, falling to below freezing in the upper 20s towards the evening) will be the weather pattern through next week.

I have received quite a lot of requests and discussions about my take on the Winter 2010-2011 forecast. I can assure you that I need just one more day to formulate my forecast. I will post my Winter forecast tomorrow. I am not ready to give up on Fall and am no where near ready for the Winter! So please stay tuned for this discussion!