Winter Storm Warnings for the Boonie States?

When one thinks about the 'sticks,' and the boonies, they think about the Southern and Midwest states. Anything below the Mason Dixon is fare game to be considered the sticks, unless of course you live in a metro sticks, but it is the boonies nevertheless. Although I currently reside in New Jersey, I am a Southern Bell from Virginia, so it is safe for me to write about the sticks a boonies!
Generally, people in the Northern states have this notion that the South is warm. At least warmer compared to the North and Northeast. In part this statement is true. The South, especially certain regions, are warmer then others. However, you can't rule out colder weather from sinking in. Typically Florida, the Gulf states, and Texas are warmer then others. The past few weeks though, it has been quite cold, even in Florida, where the National Weather Service had to issue a freeze and frost warning when evening temperatures dipped into the 30s. Today, the freezing line (32 degrees F) was flirting its way into Georgia where freezing rain and snow fell.
There is a Winter Storm Warning from parts of Georgia, Virginia, parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana.
What? Snow in Kentucky and Tennessee and not Jersey? Well, Thursday evening, portions of southern Jersey will see accumulating snow up to an inch or so.
Now remember, snow in the south, even just a few inches, is enough to shut down the state. They don't get snow. They don't have the enough snowplowing equipment like what we have in the North. I mean considering the Winter season a few years ago, hopefully they have learned from that experience to be more prepared.
The map below shows the initial set of the event that is issuing Winter storm warnings across portions of the Midatlantic states. The troughing Arctic air mass that has been dominating the Eastern states, plaguing bitterly cold air is well, cold enough to support snowy precipitation. Remember a few posts ago when I wrote about airmass characteristics. Look down at your hands. They are probably cracked and dry. That is because this bitter cold Arctic airmass is a very dry airmass. It is so dry that it virtually extracts all the moisture out of you, everything to compensate the dryness. Taking that in mind, you can actually become even more dehydrated during the Winter months due to the dryness of the air. You are not sweating much like how you are in the Summer, so you don't even feel like you need water, when in fact your body is crying for a drop.
With the proper moisture in place, it will precipitate, but it will just take some time and a lot of love from the maritime. 

12/15 Forecast Courtesy of NWS/HPC/SPC/TPC

The cold air from the North will allow temperatures to flirt or stay below freezing (32 degrees F), at least on the windward side of the Appalachian Mountains where significant ice and snow accumulations could stack up. The moisture (the other low pressure area depicted in the above map) moving northeast from the South is holding the moisture. Both of these lows will merge through Tennessee, Kentucky, and Virginia. Upwards of a foot of snow could fall through the higher elevations before making it over the mountains. Once over the mountains, the leeward side, accumulations of nearly half a foot could fall. Why such a rage of snow accumulations between the sides of the mountains you may ask?

A little something called orographic lift. The image below shows this perfectly.

Orographic Lift

On the windward side (left) air parcels rise, moisten, and become cool. This cooling process creates clouds, and eventually, with enough moisture (the cloud becomes too heavy), precipitation will fall out. Once over top the mountain onto the leeward side (right) the air parcels have no place to go but down. This decention of the air dries out the air, so not much moisture is left over compared to the other side of the mountain. Oh atmospheric thermodynamics at its finest!

12/16/10 36 hour Forecast Courtesy of NWS/HPC/NCEP

As stated before, the two lows will converge as the pink arrows and will redevelop over the Atlantic, as another low is shown in the ocean Southeast of New Jersey. The low should stay far enough out at sea such that New Jersey should be all the influenced. Southern portions of New Jersey will be affected especially early evening i.e. the evening commute Thursday. This snow line will work its way as far North and along the I-295/ I-95 corridor. Central New Jersey; Mercer and Monmouth Counties could experience snow flurries or an isolated snow shower through the evening Thursday.

The cold air still lingers...just down right cold! Temperatures are still well below average for this time of year, and it is not even Winter (which begins next week already!!)! Break out the jackets. Stop by a Starbucks for a cup of joe or hot coco to warm you up because you are still going to need it.

Stay tuned for a potentially significant event for late this weekend.

"Baby it's cold outside..."

~ V.S.