Blizzard 2010!

What a fantastic storm this was; classic meteorology textbook storm. I would have LOVED to have had a map discussion with my fellow Kean mets and Zois! Alright, granted most of you though this would have been 'worse' then it actually was. Well, to those people, not all of us have 4-wheel drive SUV's to trek out in the storm. 
The snow was a drier snow. Not like the wet snow that fell earlier this year. I don't exactly know what kind of snow is worse; the heavy wet stuff that breaks your back to shovel, or the dusty light powder that drifts feet of snow in the wind! Winds out of the North (where some of our coldest temperatures are from) helped to dry out the air. If any of you went outside last night to play in the white stuff, could feel how cold it was; you couldn't breath! Aside from exerting myself before daybreak shoveling the snow (to get myself to work) I just could not breath! Not only were the 30 mph chilling wind gusts taking my breath away, but the air was so dry! Looking at the surface observations from Trenton Mercer Airport, the temperatures were in the middle to lower 20s, and the dewpoints (essentially the moisture in the air) were in the teens and falling through the day. 
Remember: when outside shoveling or playing with the kids, go inside and hydrate frequently. All this dry air is sucking all the moisture out of the body leaving you quite dehydrated. Earlier today as well as the evening comes closer, wind chills will become colder. This morning, wind chills were measured in the single digits across New Jersey!


This storm was something not to be messed with. It was indeed a strong storm as it intensified through the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. In just about 24 hours, the low pressure system dropped just about 20 mb of pressure as it hugged the Eastern seaboard on its Northeastward trek. The storm deepened and shifted westward a little more then what was expected. The low pressure area just coiled up like a snake creating such a strong pressure gradient that has been causing the 45 mph plus wind gusts. 
Heavy bands of snow crossed the area dropping just about 2 inches of snow per hour in various locations. This storm left very impressive snow accumulation totals. Generally, a foot of snow was the average amount in most locations across New Jersey. Northeastern counties in New Jersey surely felt the brunt of the snow.
It is incredible to see such high snow accumulations from an area that is so densely populated.
The following are snow accumulations recorded from the National Weather Service:


Lincoln Park, NJ: 29.0"
Elizabeth, NJ: 31.8"
Harrison, NJ: 24.5"
Chesequake, NJ: 23.2"
Newark Airport: 20.0"
Atlantic City: 19.0"
Cape May, NJ: 18.0"
Soundview Park Homes, Bronx County, NY: 22.5"
Central Park, NYC: 20.0" (just six inches shy of the record in 2/2006 of 26.9" from a single storm)
Philadelphia Airport: 12.4"


Portions of the New Jersey coast received snow accumulations near 25 inches. Locally there were heavier amounts. Snow drifts were especially near the coast up to 5 feet! What can you do with 5 feet of a snow drift?! Make an igloo! Gusting winds 45 to 50 mph made for blizzard conditions all through the state and visibilities near zero. This storm is still over yet. It will and has been moving along the Eastern coast exploding snow fury too all in its path. By Tuesday afternoon it should be out to sea. High pressure will build in and the winds will begin to diminish. Temperatures will be on the rebound through the week; the middle 30s as daytime highs falling to the 20s by the evening. Towards the end of the week, we will have a warm-up! What a way to start off the New Year then with sunny skies and temperatures in the 40s; where they should be for New Jersey!


This storm was unbelievable. Well, not completely. It's Mother Nature. Such a beautiful thing.


I must say, my favorite moment during this whole event was just standing in the middle of the street last night with my puppy just 'being.' Standing still and not hearing a sound but the snow falling and the wind blowing. The snow and ice crystals were glistening in the street lights. It was such a beautiful sight.


Be safe driving and have fun in the snow! To all skiers and snowboarders; fresh powder yeahhh!
Have fun!


~ V.S.

Major Snow Storm Riding the Coast

On this day...A snow storm was born...
As anticipated, the models are beginning to agree and the story is unfolding to be a monster of a storm. The funny thing is that a week ago, guidance was hinting at an epic snow storm for the East coast. But things shifted changed a little, nothing was quite agreeing. Then, bam! The worst case scenario from this system is about to unveil through Monday.
The ENTIRE state of New Jersey in under a Winter Storm Warning and the NYC Metro area is under a Blizzard Warning. My, has the forecast changed!
The following is how the next 36 hours will play out:
Through Saturday, the surface low will continue to develop over the Southern states as it takes its eastward journey. Again, there is still a little bit of wiggle room in terms of the storm track. Keep in mind: a deviation of just a 50 miles or so can make a huge change in the forecast meaning more or less snow. All the models seem to agree on the track however, there seem to slightly disagree on the QPF.
When will it all start you  may ask? Starting Sunday morning snow flurries/showers will spread across southern portions of Jersey then working Northward. The worst of the snow falling in the evening hours Sunday through Monday. Despite the falling snow and potential accumulations, the wind will be another issue. Gusting winds of 25-30 mph will make for blizzard-like conditions especially towards the evening.
As far as total snow accumulations goes, I do believe this storm will keep on track. The coast will receive higher amounts compared to inland along with stronger winds. For central parts of New Jersey and along the 95 corridor, I think between 10-12 inches and locally heavier amounts could verify. Blizzard conditions and blowing snow could very well be the case for the 'burbs and rural areas. Below is an estimated snow accumulation map derived from the NWS.

Snow Storm Totals Courtesy of NWS

Bottom line, whether we have over a foot of snow, or a few inches, traveling Sunday evening will be dangerous. If you are on the roads, just use common sense...don't drive if the conditions are awful. Or don't drive at all. Spend one extra day with the in-laws...a little extra quality time won't hurt (too badly) :)

Happy Snowing!

~ V.S

Winter Storm Watches Posted

Most of us waking up this morning, especially the kids, will feel a bit disappointed looking outside and there be no snow. Well, at least in the Tri-State. New Jersey has been spared a few storms while other parts of the country have been witness to one of the most active Winter seasons in years! 

This monster storm that we have been watching is giving forecasters a run for their money. Model guidance has been suggesting a strengthening Nor'easter redeveloping off the East Coast. It is about 24 hours out now, and we are now starting to have some kind of agreement between models and are watching the story unfold. Nevertheless, when I checkout out the National Weather Service this morning, It was quite amusing to see (more or less) the entire East Coast listed in weather watches or warnings. From freeze watches and warnings in Florida to winter storm watches from the south eastern tip of South Carolina extending as far north as north eastern Maine and every state in between! I can not remember the last time I saw such a wide range of warnings. Which mind you, shows that the forecast for this storm is still uncertain and through the day Saturday, the watches and warnings will be changed accordingly. But it does not hurt to be prepared for the worst. 

The winter storm watch posted for our area suggests six inches or more is possible to fall along with gusting winds up to 25-30 mph Sunday through Monday. Now, this suggested accumulation is based on the low creeping more towards the West. Again, this low pressure area is still in the works along the Southern states. The exact track will be determined by the upper level flow. As the upper level trough sharpens as it moves East, it will likely form a cut off low; A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from the basic current and move independent of that current (NWS). Now the tricky part comes into play here. Guidance has suggested that this low will move far enough North and East that it will only have a minor impact on the area (perhaps a coating to an inch or so of snow). Or it could move a little more to the West and we could see half a foot. As of now, heavy snow has been booted out of the forecast, but the forecast can change at any moment. 

The main issue following the storm; very cold and blustery! Temperatures will be reaching to get out of the 20s along with 25-30 mph wind gusts, equals bitterly cold temperatures Monday through midweek. 

Updates will be followed up accordingly so check back often. 

For now, have a happy and blessed Christmas.

~ V.S.

Christmas Forecast and Potential Significant Northeast Snow

The western coast has been inundated with such rain, that has made the record books. Nearly twenty some odd inches plus of rain...yes, the liquid rain has fallen near the coast and low lands; streets turned into rivers, mudslides galore, unthinkable beach erosion. The fires as of late have utterly destroyed the foothills and surrounding lands that were left. The hillsides and such would be able to handle most of the water damage, but the fires have left the soil and forest at such a vulnerable state that the waters just wash over everything.
 Up in the higher elevations by Thursday, another eight (8) or more feet of snow will have fallen on top of the thirteen feet that has already fallen as of late. Talk about skiing on that kind of fresh powder. I can not fathom how these ski slopes can handle such significant snow amounts and still be open for business!
There is and has been quite a lot of weather going on. But now, the focus on everyone's mind is whether or not we, in the Tri-State, will have a white Christmas...

Much like all of you, I would want nothing more then to enjoy the glistening of ice on the trees, snowmen decked out in holiday gear on front lawns along with a few inches of snow laying on the ground. That, is a lovely image of what Christmas and the new year should be like. Well, if you live in or are visiting places that have had recent snow; that image sound a bit right. However, for much of us in New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania and New York well, not so much. We could have seen some snow accumulations that could have stuck around through this week if that past storm hung a little more to the West. Instead it went further East out to sea. This pattern has been trend of most of the models.

Now, this coming event could be rather significant. Or it could be nothing event. I think the major thing surrounding this event is the fact that it will develop and impact such a significant weekend because of the holiday; the holiday itself, people traveling and such. So we are watching this event unfold every model run and are watching what we say very closely here.
One this is for sure: there will be enough cold air in place to support snow, so it will have the Christmas 'feel' to the air. Now, all we need is this low to track up the coast then... bam!

I should mention the near term weather leading to the weekend as there will be a lot of people out and about that should be prepared. Although temperatures will be back up near the average range (flirting with the 40s) Thursday through Friday, gusting winds will only make it feel just as cold as it has been for the past few weeks. Winds gusting up to 30mph will make wind chills feel like 20s!
Models are now stating to come into agreement as when this storm will affect the East coast. As of now, for the most part the forecast models are indicating the possibility for a CHANCE of SNOW SHOWERS Christmas (Saturday) evening. The low pressure system will be developing over the Eastern Gulf States through much of Saturday. So far, much of the guidance from the models indicate that Saturday, for the most part will be dry and cold. However, a little 'wishcasting' can't really hurt...I don't want to get hopes high, but just even a snowflake falling on Saturday will 'make' Christmas.
Although there is still uncertainty as to what exactly will unfold, there is still some medium range forecasts that show this system affecting the area Sunday through Monday. These forecasts show that this could be a rather significant for the Northeast. We are still watching the jet streak off shore from California that will quickly move through the jet stream affecting the Southern states along the way reaching the Gulf States by Saturday. The main thing that is being watched is whether or not phasing, if any, as the Northern jet streak could dip into the long wave trough that could be in ideal position. If this occurs, it could mean significant snow accumulations through the Delmarva and New Jersey Sunday through Monday. Guidance shows this low slowing down (hence, the snow forecast pushed back for later weekend) giving it time to deepen through the levels, with the greatest storm intensification occurring over the Mid-Atlantic states (ah-hemm, LOVE IT!) The 12z run Monday of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) had a 971 mb low off the Delmarva coast which would verify a monster storm! What a way to end 2010! Fingers crossed something comes from this event. I know all my fellow weather weenies are squirming in their seats to see this unfold.

Courtesy of ECMF http://www.ecmwf.int

Now we will be watching just how close this system will come to the coast...
For now, a cold few days for the Tri-State is all to worry about. Keep posted for this potential storm for later this weekend.

~ V.S.

The Winter Season is Upon Us!

For the past few days, the media has been hyping up a significant coastal storm that would create a pretty snowy situation for the Tri-State. Granted, our job as meteorologists warn the public of coming weather and try to hit the nail on the head when predict the weather. Our weather models can predict so many hours and days out then it becomes obsolete. Yes, we all want to know what the weather holds for us two weeks out. However, I will tell you this: a ten day forecast (cough cough weather weenies you know what I am referring to...) can give you a the vaguest idea of what the weather will be. Just one variable can change at any moment, and you can throw that forecast out the window! The prediction models can handle so much data and run so much analysis and such, this is why the forecasts are the most accurate just a few hours out. Imaging how much data is analyzed for a ten day time slot...data interpreted every three hours of variables that take into account equations (that will blow your mind!) performed by supercomputers and human interpretation...all this data is just so overwhelming!
Those you you who took Zois's synoptic and dynamics classes know these equations...All I can say is: Thank goodness for MatLab!
Some of us prefer some models over others when it comes to longer range forecasting. But all-in-all, when it comes to a final decision on the forecast, the models need to generally agree with each other. A few days ago, the models were predicting a surface low from the South redeveloping off the coast (Cape Hatteras/Delmarva). The moisture would be in place as well as more then enough cold air  to support snow through all the levels of the atmosphere. The models we also suggesting an upper level low to the West in just the perfect position for the coastal low to bomb out! This would mean the Tri-State would get a lot of snow (I mean a crap load of snow in one sitting, like a few feet load!). Alright, for that much snow suggested continuously for a few days, a early warning needs to be presented to the public.

Eastern GOES Infrared Image  Courtesy of NOAA/NWS

So what happened you may ask? Referring to the image above, high pressure sinking down moved off the coast through the evening Saturday. This southerly motion of the high creeps the surface low further off shore to deepen in the maritime. The only weather associated with this coastal low would be clouds and snow flurries (if that) for Southeastern Delaware, Southern parts of New Jersey and perhaps Long Island. 

Major bummer for us missing out on a snow storm. Something tells me this will be the theme for snow for us through the Winter...(referring to the Winter season forecast). 

Speaking of Winter...The first day of Winter is upon us! The first day of Winter in the northern hemisphere is this Tuesday, December 21st! Although it sure has felt like Winter the past few weeks, it will not be official until Tuesday!

The first day of Winter in the northern hemisphere, when the Moon is full, it will pass just about straight center through the Earth's shadow. According to NASA, this will happen to a for approximately a total of 72 'eerie' minutes in which an amber light will light across North America. The Lunar Eclipse will begin Tuesday morning at 1:33 a.m. EST. What will you see? You will see the Earth's shadow appearing as a 'dark-red bite at the edge of the lunar disc.' It will take about an hour for the 'bite to expand and swallow the entire moon.' This eclipse will come to an end at approximately 2:41 a.m. EST. NASA suggests to observe this moment at 3:17 a.m. to see the Moon in the deepest shadow which will show in shades of coppery reds.

Hopefully the weather holds up on the East coast to see the spectacular event!

~ V.S.

Winter Storm Warnings for the Boonie States?

When one thinks about the 'sticks,' and the boonies, they think about the Southern and Midwest states. Anything below the Mason Dixon is fare game to be considered the sticks, unless of course you live in a metro sticks, but it is the boonies nevertheless. Although I currently reside in New Jersey, I am a Southern Bell from Virginia, so it is safe for me to write about the sticks a boonies!
Generally, people in the Northern states have this notion that the South is warm. At least warmer compared to the North and Northeast. In part this statement is true. The South, especially certain regions, are warmer then others. However, you can't rule out colder weather from sinking in. Typically Florida, the Gulf states, and Texas are warmer then others. The past few weeks though, it has been quite cold, even in Florida, where the National Weather Service had to issue a freeze and frost warning when evening temperatures dipped into the 30s. Today, the freezing line (32 degrees F) was flirting its way into Georgia where freezing rain and snow fell.
There is a Winter Storm Warning from parts of Georgia, Virginia, parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana.
What? Snow in Kentucky and Tennessee and not Jersey? Well, Thursday evening, portions of southern Jersey will see accumulating snow up to an inch or so.
Now remember, snow in the south, even just a few inches, is enough to shut down the state. They don't get snow. They don't have the enough snowplowing equipment like what we have in the North. I mean considering the Winter season a few years ago, hopefully they have learned from that experience to be more prepared.
The map below shows the initial set of the event that is issuing Winter storm warnings across portions of the Midatlantic states. The troughing Arctic air mass that has been dominating the Eastern states, plaguing bitterly cold air is well, cold enough to support snowy precipitation. Remember a few posts ago when I wrote about airmass characteristics. Look down at your hands. They are probably cracked and dry. That is because this bitter cold Arctic airmass is a very dry airmass. It is so dry that it virtually extracts all the moisture out of you, everything to compensate the dryness. Taking that in mind, you can actually become even more dehydrated during the Winter months due to the dryness of the air. You are not sweating much like how you are in the Summer, so you don't even feel like you need water, when in fact your body is crying for a drop.
With the proper moisture in place, it will precipitate, but it will just take some time and a lot of love from the maritime. 

12/15 Forecast Courtesy of NWS/HPC/SPC/TPC

The cold air from the North will allow temperatures to flirt or stay below freezing (32 degrees F), at least on the windward side of the Appalachian Mountains where significant ice and snow accumulations could stack up. The moisture (the other low pressure area depicted in the above map) moving northeast from the South is holding the moisture. Both of these lows will merge through Tennessee, Kentucky, and Virginia. Upwards of a foot of snow could fall through the higher elevations before making it over the mountains. Once over the mountains, the leeward side, accumulations of nearly half a foot could fall. Why such a rage of snow accumulations between the sides of the mountains you may ask?

A little something called orographic lift. The image below shows this perfectly.

Orographic Lift

On the windward side (left) air parcels rise, moisten, and become cool. This cooling process creates clouds, and eventually, with enough moisture (the cloud becomes too heavy), precipitation will fall out. Once over top the mountain onto the leeward side (right) the air parcels have no place to go but down. This decention of the air dries out the air, so not much moisture is left over compared to the other side of the mountain. Oh atmospheric thermodynamics at its finest!

12/16/10 36 hour Forecast Courtesy of NWS/HPC/NCEP

As stated before, the two lows will converge as the pink arrows and will redevelop over the Atlantic, as another low is shown in the ocean Southeast of New Jersey. The low should stay far enough out at sea such that New Jersey should be all the influenced. Southern portions of New Jersey will be affected especially early evening i.e. the evening commute Thursday. This snow line will work its way as far North and along the I-295/ I-95 corridor. Central New Jersey; Mercer and Monmouth Counties could experience snow flurries or an isolated snow shower through the evening Thursday.

The cold air still lingers...just down right cold! Temperatures are still well below average for this time of year, and it is not even Winter (which begins next week already!!)! Break out the jackets. Stop by a Starbucks for a cup of joe or hot coco to warm you up because you are still going to need it.

Stay tuned for a potentially significant event for late this weekend.

"Baby it's cold outside..."

~ V.S.

More of Old Man Winter on the Way

Just when we all thought it was cold enough...there is more yet to come. For Tri-State, high temperatures merely in the middle 30s falling to the middle 20s by the evening was cold enough for most of us. It was quite lovely to see snow flurries to really help put us in the mood for the holiday season. The Great Lake snow machine has certainly been pumping out the snow. Outside of Buffalo and West Seneca, New York a few of snow has been accumulating. Close to home, it has been cold enough that the Ski areas in the Poconos have been making snow that that is a few feet thick that will last through the season.
We will have a bit a of a reprieve from the biting cold temperatures as much milder air will work its way in for all but a few hours. High pressure will continue through the area through much of Saturday which will be the better day of the weekend. Lighter winds then what we have had, with temperatures about five to ten degrees warmer then what we have felt (right around our average temperature for this time of year, perhaps a tad warmer).
Increasing clouds through the day Saturday, especially towards Saturday evening. Precipitation will spread through the area through Saturday evening. The onset does look to be rain and will continue as rain through Sunday as temperatures should remain above freezing (above 32 degrees F, 0 degrees C) and could rise through the night. Yes, even though the 'daylight' is not a factor this time, depending on the direction of the wind and the thicker the clouds along with added moisture, temperatures could rise. In fact, the highest temperature for Sunday could occur in the early morning hours, then fall through the day. The higher elevations; Northwest New Jersey and the Poconos will most likely have snow or wintry mix fall throughout the 'event' because it will be cold enough to support snow through the levels to the surface.
Just a note: this could be a rather tricky forecast considering this low is still in the developing stages. The track and such can still change, ergo changing the current forecast. As far now, the models are showing most of New Jersey and surrounding areas in the warm sector as southerly-southeasterly winds will advect (blowing warmer air into our area from the South) keeping the main surface low North and West on the onset. However, models have been showing the low tracking west to east through the area, bringing in some  pretty strong CAA (cold air advection). With that said, temperatures will begin to fall. Now, based on this, we are going to be playing the precipitation game. By the evening Sunday, there could be minor snow.....yes, SNOW accumulations, especially North and West of the Philadelphia area.
Sorry all of my grade school nuggets, it does not look like a snow day for you Monday, especially not in Jersey.
Towards Monday, an upper level trough is forecasted to deepen, allowing for a continued chance of snow showers through Tuesday. Cold air advection will be in full force Monday through Tuesday filtering in the coldest air of the season yet! This Arctic air will allow temperatures to get as high as the 20s! No, I did not mistake you. Tuesday and through the week, high temperatures will try to get to the middle 20s before falling to the teens and single digits in the outer suburbs and higher elevations. Cold, very cold and blustry!

Stay tuned for more discussion regarding the weather for the end of the week... things could start to get fun!
Bundle up and get ready for Old Man Winter (even though Winter does not begin until December 21st)!!!!

~ V.S.

Winter 2010-11 Forecast!

The moment you have been all waiting for....the Winter 2010-11 Forecast! After much thought and research I have come up with a synopsis for how this Winter will play out. Through much of the Summer, we experienced a rather Neutral oscillation (neither El Nino nor La Nina). As of late, and through Spring 2011, the oscillation has switched to La Nina. What does this mean for our Winter season? A cold Winter ahead my friends. In terms of precipitation, There may be a few instances where we could have a significant snow/ice storm (which I will discuss further below), but otherwise it will be a dry season. 
Since this past October, La Nina has been driving the climate and will continue to do so through the next season. The reason researchers know and can forecast this is partially due to the sea surface temperatures (sst) in the Pacific Ocean. In general over the Pacific, the overall sea surface temperatures have been some 2.5 degrees below average. These colder temperatures are not only measured near the surface, but were also measured (from buoys) about a hundred meters below the surface further supporting La Nina for the season. Keep in mind, a climate oscillation is not an area that encompasses a certain area like a few kilometers or miles. This 'area' is larger then an airmass, if you can remember this from a few posts ago. This La Nina oscillation ranges from the International Date Line in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, across the the ocean, up to Canada and through the States in the Northern Hemisphere; a whole lot of an area! Such El Nino and La Nina events as partially due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation that causes temperature 'swings' over the globe which varies during a longer time scale the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). La Nina is the colder cycle of ENSO.
Other variables supporting this La Nina event is Convection over Indonesia, which has continued to enhance the lower level trade winds and the upper level westerly winds.   


From this event and overall weather patterns that can and will occur during this coming season, research and past climate events generally give an idea temperatures and precipitation specifically over North America. This  Winter season, the following will occur: (Close your eyes and picture a map of the U.S. If you simply can't, there is a map below to cheat).

Courtesy of NOAA

-  Below average temperatures over Southern and Central Alaska, along the coast of California, running up North along the Northern parts of the States: Washington State to Minnesota, including Canada.
- Temperatures in the along the Rockies, Southwest, Texas, through the Southern and Central Plains, as well as the Mississippi River Valley will be above average. 
- Central Atlantic States through New England will experience a combination of both. The above average temperatures could slide as North as the Delmarva (Delaware and Maryland area). Our weather will be highly dependent on the direction of the Wind. Southwesterly winds will give is milder temperatures. Winds out of the North will give us the coldest temperatures. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York will be rather variable in terms of weather this Winter. Because we are located in such a vulnerable spot, we could be subject to a storm or to and especially the biting cold temperatures. 


- Precipitation in the Northwest will/could be above average. This includes northern parts of California. 
- Other areas of above average precipitation include parts of the Northern Rockies (North as in location, not elevation), Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and the Southern Great Lakes. Areas surrounding the Great Lakes could possibly experience some of the greatest snow, especially when the 'snow machine' gets started. This depends on how soon and long this colder air sticks around. Remember, the warmer the lakes remain, the greater the chance for snow, and a lot of it. 
- From Southern California, parts of the Southwest, Texas, and through the Gulf States, below average precipitation is expected. 
- This below average precipitation again, reaches up along the Central Atlantic states to the Delmarva. Again, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York are on the boarder line. 


This Winter season for the most part looks to be quite exciting, but not to mention a potential nightmare for we forecasters when it it comes down to predicting storms in our area. It will come down to the dreaded '540 line.' This line is know as a thickness value in the atmosphere. 540 stands for 5400 geopotential thickness between the atmospheric layers between 1000 mb (also known as the surface) and 500 mb. Thickness is the idea of the temperature and the moisture content of the air through this layer. We use this 'line' as a reference when forecasting the type of precipitation during the Winter months. 


Stay warm this Winter and remember to bare with us when forecasting your Winter weather...it's a tough job predicting Mother Nature!


~ V.S.

Plummeting Temperatures

The rain has fallen, winds were gusting. According to the local surface weather soundings, in an hour the temperature fell nearly ten (10) degrees with the passage of the cold front. Through much of mid-morning the temperature was pretty much consistent during the heavy rain event. Check below the stats. from the surface observations from Trenton, Mercer County Airport. Just in one hour (between 11:53-12:53) the pressure rose from 999.6 mb (as the front was passing through) to 1001.3 mb and rising, trying to regain stability. The temperature dropped from 63 degrees F (recorded at 11:53 a.m.) to 52 degrees F in the next hour and have been falling ever since and will continue to fall through the evening to the upper 20s by sunrise Thursday morning.

D a t e	Time (est)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Pressure		Precipitation (in.)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour		altimeter (in.)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
01	13:53	W 13	5.00	Light Rain Fog/Mist	BKN009 BKN027 OVC041	49	46			29.63	1002.7	0.02
01	12:53	NW 16 G 39	0.75	Heavy Rain Fog/Mist	BKN007 BKN015 OVC021	52	48	64	52	29.59	1001.3	0.34		1.21
01	11:53	S 22 G 37	5.00	Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy	OVC007	63	61			29.54	999.6	0.05
01	10:53	S 23 G 41	2.00	Fog/Mist and Breezy	OVC011	63	60			29.62	1002.4	0.23

Heavy rain fell through the area; as expected. the average rainfall was around and inch and a half or so. Just a note: Considering much, if not all, the leaves have fallen from trees. Those of you in areas where you do not need to bag your leaves, make sure your leaves are NOT blocking or covering the storm water drains in the streets! If you are walking around the dog around the block and happen to notice a pile of leaves over a storm drain, just take a second and clear the leaves. This will not only keep the streets from flooding but it will keep our waterways clean! The same goes for any excess garbage that may be in the grate of the storm drain.  Just pick it up and throw it away properly. We seriously need to pick up the slack for those who do not care about our environment! And, you can not honestly say that you have no idea where these storm drains are located. Many townships have marked these storm drains in hope that people will start to pay attention.
The front moved passed rather quickly following a middle level trough from the North West filtering in some pretty cold temperatures. Aside from rather sunny skies for the rest of the week, the temperatures will be quite chilly; trying to reach the middle 40s! High pressure move in from the Southwest but will not quite reach our area due to a low pressure area (the one that just affected our weather) will stall and redevelop over the Atlantic and have a stalled frontal boundary over the New England area (that will trigger snow showers there) keeping a relatively steady West to Northwest chilly flow (of air) through much of Saturday. Considering this flow, from this direction, keeping in mind the last post of the lake-effect white stuff ...a few increasing dark clouds and snow flurries can not be ruled out through Saturday.
As far as long term weather; we (forecasters) are watching an Alberta Clipper System (a who?) that is forecasted to move to the South of our area Saturday into Sunday which could trigger a snow shower or a few. What is an Alberta Clipper you may ask? Although it sound like something awful from an evil mother-in-law. However, this clipper is known as a fast moving low pressure system that moves out from Southeast Canada from the Province of Alberta in Southwest Canada.

Flow of an Alberta Clipper System

This travels through the Plains, Midwest, passing through the Great Lakes. You often hear of this term during late Fall and through the Winter. This low pressure area is typically accompanied by snow, light in nature, strong winds, and cold(er) temperatures. The image above shows the general flow of these clipper systems. Note the position of the final low; right over the Tri-State area. 

Again, this clipper system is as of now, forecasted to move more towards our South. With this forecasted track, increasing clouds and generally the same temperatures (with highs in the middle to lower 40s, falling to below freezing in the upper 20s towards the evening) will be the weather pattern through next week.

I have received quite a lot of requests and discussions about my take on the Winter 2010-2011 forecast. I can assure you that I need just one more day to formulate my forecast. I will post my Winter forecast tomorrow. I am not ready to give up on Fall and am no where near ready for the Winter! So please stay tuned for this discussion!