Enjoy it While it Lasts!

It seemed a little like a dream world walking outside earlier to sunny skies, and what? No need for a heavy coat? This isn't Jersey in the dead of Winter! Enjoy this mild air! Go out for a brisk walk during lunch break and get a dose of vitamin D from the sun. Especially considering we have all been so cooped up during this rather harsh Winter. Enjoy Monday's weather...this will not last for long. With mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near 50 (yes, you read that correctly), it just seems too good to be true! All this lovely weather will be swept out of the area as a rather complex weather system moves up the coast late Monday evening through Tuesday. Now, not to worry, I know I mentioned; complex, weather, our coast, all in one sentence. Considering how this Winter has been for us in the Mid-Atlantic/New England states, that is not something that you may want to hear. Thanks to the mild air on top of us, we will really only see rain with a possible wintry mix when the temperatures fall in the evening hours.
The set up of this event is rather neat...

This system is 'complex' because there are different dynamics, systems, and fronts all working together to enhance the evolution of the 'main event.' Referring to the map above, this should have been the kind of weather we should have been having all season; New Jersey located on the boarder line between snow and rain etc.
Before I rant off into a weather discussion, I should add an explanation of a term that I will be using through out: Frontal Boundary. A front (warm, cold, stationary are the most widely known), is a 'transition zone' between airmasses with different densities. Basic physics: warm air is less dense and it rises and cold air is more dense (heavy) and will sink. The two main characteristics that helps to define one air mass versus another are simply two things: temperature and humidity (or moisture content). When two different airmasses approach each other, the 'zone' where the airmasses meet, is called a front or a frontal boundary.

This image helps to provide an example of a front or a frontal boundary. Simply, the warm air is rising over the cold dense air that is near the surface. I ask you to draw your attention to the surface. Observe the two numbers on the map; the 50 degrees F (in the green) and the 42 degrees F (in the blue). This image is showing the advancement of a cold front where colder air is moving East to overtake the warmer air. The two airmasses meet/collide, and a thunderstorm and rainy precipitation is the result in this image. This is a depiction of a Cold Front (or frontal boundary).

Now back to the good stuff!

Part One: An area of low pressure off the Eastern Gulf will develop and trek Northeastward in to the Atlantic, and will continue to move paralleling the East Coast. It is a good thing this system is so far off the coast; it contains a lot of moisture. If cold air was in place and this system moved closer into the coast, easily, another heavy 15 incher snowstorm could occur. But it's not! (wheww!) Although this system will be off shore, impacts will be felt Monday evening in way of rain in southern Jersey up through Central New Jersey. Rain in these areas could be light to moderate, with the heaviest to fall in portions of South Jersey. Other portions of the area will have a potential wintry mix late Monday evening through the early morning hours Tuesday in Central and Northern Jersey. Anywhere from a coating to perhaps a slushy inch or two of snow. Portions of Northwestern New Jersey, New York and other portions of New England could experience anywhere from 2-5 inches of snow by Tuesday. This system will move off the New England coast early Tuesday ending towards the afternoon.

Part Two: This portion of the complex will not greatly affect our area directly, but it will have other impacts to come...Another frontal boundary will be arranged from the North and inland in comparison to the coastal system mentioned in Part One. This next front will continue to lift North into Northern Main and into Canada through Tuesday evening. Tapping into cold air, snow will develop along the frontal boundary from Arkansas (yes, that South!) through the Great Lakes. This will get the Lake Effect snow machine cranking again, producing Lake Effect snow through the upper Great Lakes region. Other portions along this front will allow for a rainy precipitation over the Gulf, Mid-Atlantic, and Central Appalachians through Tuesday. To answer the question before; how will this impact our area? The rain for one, and two, the cold air tapping into the South is not really a good thing if we want to preserve our farms and such this time of year. More on that later.
Part Three: A third storm will move over the Northern Rockies south near the Mexican Border through Tuesday evening. This system will produce snow to fall from the Intermountain region of the Rockies through the Northern and Central Plains, and into parts of the Great Basin late Monday through Tuesday. As this system travels, it will be guided South to portions of Mississippi River Valley (where snow is forecasted to fall) Tuesday evening, by a rather strong high pressure area moving South, from Canada. This high will set up shop over the Northern Plains moving Eastward that will being in very cold and dry Arctic air and will plummet temperatures 30-40 degrees F below average! By Wednesday, snow is in the forecast as well as temperatures in the teens for evening lows, in portions of Texas and flirting with the freezing mark and the 20s along the Gulf States! Again, these freezing temperatures is not good at all for our agriculture industry at this time. Produce along our grocery isles are becoming sparse and more expensive all because of the weather!
In the Tri-State, we will once again be back in the ice box with temperatures in the lower 30s as daytime highs falling to the teens in the evening.

Fun Fact: Yesterday February 6th, 1978, was the catastrophic and historic Nor'ester that brought blizzard conditions across the New England region. Boston received a record 27.1" of snow, along with Providence, Rhode Island with records of 27.6". Sustained hurricane force winds of 86 mph, with gusts of 111 mph, and brought steady snow for 6-12 hours with some areas experiencing snowfall rates of 4 inches per hour!
The storm killed 100 people injuring 4,500. This storm also caused over $520 million (which is about $1.75 billion in present terms) in damages. Imagine a storm like that today!?

~V.S.