Wintry Mix Moving In

A rather large area of northern middle section of the states through parts of New England will be widely impacted by a system that will bring a mixed bag of treats. Winter still is not over...Old Man Winter is back!

RADAR Image at 2248UTC Courtesy of NWS/NOAA

Winter storm warnings and advisories have been posted as this precipitation moves into areas of colder air from where a polar airmass has pushed its way in. This past winter especially, Central and Northern New Jersey and New England have been hit storm after storm with no mercy from Mother Nature. This time Southern New Jersey and portions of the DELMARVA are under a Winter Storm Warning. Northern New Jersey and New England will be spared this time, as this system takes more of a southerly track. Although, if you woke up to a dusting of snow in central parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, that dusting was from a system that moved through late last night through the morning. Throughout the area, Northwestern New Jersey received a little over a half foot of fresh powder, Central Park, NYC measured about 2.5 inches, and Connecticut received between 3-9 inches of snow. Back it up towards the West, portions of the Northern Plains received near 20 inches of snow!
In the case of this next event, snowfall amounts will not as impressive however, parts of Southern New Jersey could have quite a storm on hand.

00z Surface Map for 2/21/11 Courtesy of NWS/NOAA/NCEP/HPC

From essentially a sequence of low pressure surface systems, the next one to impact our area will move more to the South. Associated with this system is support from an upper level jet (very strong upper atmosphere winds) that will move this system out as fast as it comes in. Some of the models are hinting at rather strong omega (vertical vorticity) and neutral equivalent potential temperature (the temperature of a dry air parcel if brought adiabatically to a standard level of pressure) such to support rather heavy snow through souther New Jersey and the DELMARVA. For a few hours, snowfall rates could be 1-2 inches per hour in these areas late this evening. The temperatures in these areas will have to drop rather significantly in order for snow to accumulate fast once the precipitation arrives...It could happen...but, as always, all of this is indicative of the timing and placement of this system.
For central New Jersey and East central Pennsylvania a wintry mix can not be ruled out as well as a light accumulation of around 1-3 inches (if that). The next piece is referring back to the upper level jet. With that ingredient in place, especially in those areas of 1-2 inch snowfall rates, gusting winds of 25-30mph could occur and that will result in drifting snow and possible white-out/blizzard conditions for a period of time making it difficult to travel.

Snow Total Forecast Courtesy of NWS/NOAA

The system will make its way off the coast through Tuesday morning with mix and snow ending from the North to the South. Clearing skies for the rest of Tuesday and chilling (and very dry air) temperatures struggling to get out of the 20s as daytime highs before falling to the teens towards the evening. Much will be the same Wednesday with warmer air starting to build into the region. Temperatures will be near average (for once!) for the rest of the week.
Next system to watch will be towards the end of the week...this one looks to be all rain :-)

Be safe for your morning commute!

~ V.S.