Here We Go Again...

It has seemed like just when all the streets are FINALLY plowed from all the snow, a week later more is forecasted to be on our door step. This has been the trend for the past few weeks! Well, we did it! This December-January has made the snowiest months on record averaging around 55 inches for a one months time and the season is not over yet!
This next system to worry about has issued a rather impressive amount of watches and warnings across the mid-sections of the country ranging from winter storm warnings in New Mexico, blizzard warnings through the Central Plains, and winter storm warnings and watches as far North through New York state and New England!

National Weather Service Watches and Warnings 1/31/11

This major winter storm is expected to reek havoc in the Central states before heading to the East Coast in the next few days. Heavy snow and high winds have made forecasters of the National Weather Service (NWS) issue blizzard warnings through the central states where nearly two (2) feet of snow is expected to fall through Wednesday before ice accumulations take part!

Looking at the (RADAR) maps now, there does not seem to be much action occurring to issue such watches and warning. But beware, what is forecasted to occur will not be a pretty picture (unless of course you are a weather weenie and are looking at the maps in awe for what is to unfold...). The catalyst for this upcoming major event are a pair of systems located across the high Northern Plains, and over Western Texas. Where these two lows are respectively located are also two separate jet streams; the polar jet stream along the northern part of the states, and the second is the Subtropical jet stream along the southern states as shown in the image below. 

Interaction of the two jets is expected to take place, thus significant strengthening and intensifying, especially of the southern portion of the storm, is forecasted. Through Tuesday, the upper level trough will intensify as will the surface low over the Central Plains. The storm will pack punches as it moves across the country to the  East Coast holding a lot of moisture that is being fed from the Gulf of Mexico. All this moisture will allow for close to 2 feet of snow to fall through the Plains and as far North as Chicago and the Ohio River Valley. 

With all this said, what is in store for the Tri-State?

The snow will not really be the issue. The ice accumulating is what will be the main issue. From looking at the watches and warnings map above, New York and portions of New Jersey and New England are under a Winter Storm Warning through Wednesday. Snow will begin to fall late Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Between an inch to five inches of snow will accumulate (the lowest amounts accumulating in the South with higher amounts towards the North and West). This snow will change over to a wintry mix through Tuesday. Freezing rain will biggest issue to watch. With the potential of around a 1/3-2/3 inches of ice accumulating on roads, on top of existing snow, trees, and power wires, this does pose a risk for power outages (along with the contributing winds). There will be a lull in the storm Tuesday evening before round two moves it. A wintry mix will likely be the case Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. The mix will then change over to all rain through Wednesday. With that said, the next issue to address is flooding! With all the accumulating snow at present, the ground is frozen and saturated, so not much water can penetrate. Add on another inch or so of rain and there is simply no where for all this water to go...but say, in your basement!

Driving during the wintry mix will make for a treacherous commute. The accumulating ice will make it quite difficult, if not impossible to get around. 

If you do not need to go out, DO NOT DRIVE! Remember, if the NWS issues a Winter Storm Warning, it means that significant amounts of snow, sleet, and ice are expected along with strong winds and will make very hazardous or impossible driving conditions. 

Very cold and frigid temperatures will move through the central states and make their way to our area towards midweek. Some places out West will struggle to make it out of the zero degree mark for a daytime high! So, if that is a high...yes, just what you are thinking; evening lows will drop to -20 degrees F, with some locations even plunging to -30 degrees F. For New Jersey at least, high temperatures will get as high as the 20s, falling to the teens, even flirting with the single digits by evening. 

Remember, use proper precautions and preparedness for this next storm!

~ V.S.