March Comes in Like a Lamb

Another taste of Spring as temperatures soared well into the 60s Monday. Although the skies were cloudy and rain fell throughout, some parts of the area felt record breaking temperatures!
Here are some of the record temperatures for Monday (in degrees F):
Wilmington, DE: 66
Wildwood, NJ: 66
Atlantic City, NJ: 70
Dover, DE: 72
Surrounding areas felt temperatures well into the 60s. The average temperatures for the Tri-State for this time of year is around the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Rain, rain, and more rain! Some of us late Sunday evening had such downpours and experienced a few (wildly loud) cracks of thunder! Thankfully, I was sound asleep otherwise I would have been up tacking the storms on their trek, in a true weather weenie way...

These mild temperatures, rain, and storms are triggered off by a larger and rather strong cold front that was pushing through the area. Referring to the RADAR image below, numerous tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings were issued in wake of the advancement of the strong cold front.

Surface Map 2/27/11 Courtesy of NWS/NOAA/HPC

RADAR Image of the advancing cold front. Courtesy of NWS/NOAA/HPC

After this cold front moves through, colder air from Canada will push through. Sunny skies will be the highlight, but temperatures will fall through midweek before they rise again towards the end of the week.
Wednesday temperatures will be in the middle-upper 40s (slightly above average), while Thursday, high temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s.

In wake of the thunderstorms and tornadoes, I must mention that the week of February 27th (yes, this week), is PA's Severe Weather Awareness Week. Check out this link for their daily break down of severe weather safety discussions and tips.

Note: Starting the week of March 7th- 12th (next week) , I will be conducting my own severe weather awareness series. Stay tuned for discussions...It will be cool, I promise!

February ends off rather balmy and March now greets us with sunny skies and above average temperatures.
The flowers are beginning to peek up from out the ground, temperatures are more frequently now becoming a roller coaster of highs and lows. The seasonal transition is upon us. The first day of Spring is just a few weeks away! However, remember that it is still Winter. I still have my fingers crossed for another snow storm.

Let the Spring count down begin!

Wintry Mix Moving In

A rather large area of northern middle section of the states through parts of New England will be widely impacted by a system that will bring a mixed bag of treats. Winter still is not over...Old Man Winter is back!

RADAR Image at 2248UTC Courtesy of NWS/NOAA

Winter storm warnings and advisories have been posted as this precipitation moves into areas of colder air from where a polar airmass has pushed its way in. This past winter especially, Central and Northern New Jersey and New England have been hit storm after storm with no mercy from Mother Nature. This time Southern New Jersey and portions of the DELMARVA are under a Winter Storm Warning. Northern New Jersey and New England will be spared this time, as this system takes more of a southerly track. Although, if you woke up to a dusting of snow in central parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, that dusting was from a system that moved through late last night through the morning. Throughout the area, Northwestern New Jersey received a little over a half foot of fresh powder, Central Park, NYC measured about 2.5 inches, and Connecticut received between 3-9 inches of snow. Back it up towards the West, portions of the Northern Plains received near 20 inches of snow!
In the case of this next event, snowfall amounts will not as impressive however, parts of Southern New Jersey could have quite a storm on hand.

00z Surface Map for 2/21/11 Courtesy of NWS/NOAA/NCEP/HPC

From essentially a sequence of low pressure surface systems, the next one to impact our area will move more to the South. Associated with this system is support from an upper level jet (very strong upper atmosphere winds) that will move this system out as fast as it comes in. Some of the models are hinting at rather strong omega (vertical vorticity) and neutral equivalent potential temperature (the temperature of a dry air parcel if brought adiabatically to a standard level of pressure) such to support rather heavy snow through souther New Jersey and the DELMARVA. For a few hours, snowfall rates could be 1-2 inches per hour in these areas late this evening. The temperatures in these areas will have to drop rather significantly in order for snow to accumulate fast once the precipitation arrives...It could happen...but, as always, all of this is indicative of the timing and placement of this system.
For central New Jersey and East central Pennsylvania a wintry mix can not be ruled out as well as a light accumulation of around 1-3 inches (if that). The next piece is referring back to the upper level jet. With that ingredient in place, especially in those areas of 1-2 inch snowfall rates, gusting winds of 25-30mph could occur and that will result in drifting snow and possible white-out/blizzard conditions for a period of time making it difficult to travel.

Snow Total Forecast Courtesy of NWS/NOAA

The system will make its way off the coast through Tuesday morning with mix and snow ending from the North to the South. Clearing skies for the rest of Tuesday and chilling (and very dry air) temperatures struggling to get out of the 20s as daytime highs before falling to the teens towards the evening. Much will be the same Wednesday with warmer air starting to build into the region. Temperatures will be near average (for once!) for the rest of the week.
Next system to watch will be towards the end of the week...this one looks to be all rain :-)

Be safe for your morning commute!

~ V.S.

Winter 2011 Record Warmth

Just as we were all becoming used to this lovely taste of Spring, it will all come to an end during the holiday weekend. Before I put a damper on this weather, I must mention Friday's warmth tied and broke record high temperatures! After the clouds burned off, the sun came out, the southerly flow picked up and temperatures soared through the afternoon. Across the area, temperatures generally in the middle and upper 60s.
The following are just a few of the records (in degrees F) :
Trenton, NJ: 72
Atlantic City, NJ: 73
Dover, DE: 72
Philadelphia, PA: 69
Allentown, PA: 67

Max Temperatures 2/18/2011 Courtesy of NWS/NOAA

These are just a few which are rather impressive considering it is the middle February.
Just as the weather was becoming great, a major change in the forecast is ahead that will bring us back to reality to remind us that it is still...Winter (::gasping!::)
A strong cold front will pass through Friday evening through Saturday. The front will cross rather dry so little is any, precipitation will result. The main 'issue' from this front is the resulting strong CAA (cold air advection) that will bring colder temperatures, some 25 degrees below from what temperatures were Friday, and pretty gusting winds. In fact, a High Wind Warning and a Red Flag Warning is in effect through Saturday. Winds could gust as high as 60mph! This will make for wind chills near freezing and the possibility for down trees and power lines.
The high winds should push out of the area through Saturday evening. An area of low pressure will slide in Sunday evening from the West through Monday. The forecast gets a little tricky as temperatures Sunday evening will be flirting with the freezing mark. The precipitation that will result could be a wintry mix in the evening and early morning Monday then changing over to rain thereafter...Oh to see snow fall after a taste of Spring :-)
Very cold temperatures next week will remind us that Spring is still a few weeks away. After the low moves out, breezy chilling temperatures will follow early week. I'm talking abut high temperatures in the middle 30s (feeling like the 20s/teens) Tuesday before falling to the teens towards the evening.

Time to bring out the Winter coats yet again...

~ V.S.

Another Treat!

If you thought our Valentine's Day forecast was a treat, wait until later this week!
Aside from the rather impressive winds today; gusting near 40 mph, it was quite a lovely day! Sunny skies and air temperatures flirting with the 60s! Although the mercury read near 60 degrees F, the winds made it feel a bit chillier. On topic for Monday evening...clouds could start to increase through the evening as an approaching cold front moves through from the West. Little precipitation in form of rain/snow showers could fall, if any. The precipitation is expected to evaporate before it reaches the eastern side of the mountains, as the cold front and showers reach a drier air mass over the Tri-State. With that said, the dewpoints are falling along with continued strong wind gusts through Monday evening, will make for rather downright cold temperatures approaching Tuesday morning. Temperatures will plummet to the twenties by sunrise with wind chills in the teens. The winds should die down through Tuesday. Strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) will allow temperatures to only reach to a cold mid-30s as daytime highs before falling back into the icebox Tuesday evening.

Max Temperatures for Thursday 2/17 Courtesy of HPC/NOAA

Max Temperatures Friday 2/18 Courtesy of HPC/NOAA

The picture changes Wednesday as temperatures will be on the rebound for the rest of the week. Just take a look above; these images just say it all! High pressure builds in bringing us not only mostly sunny skies but above average temperatures! South westerly winds will bring temperatures near 50 degrees F Wednesday and possibly reaching 60s towards Friday!
Talk about Spring fever! This time it should actually feel warm without the influence of blustery wind chills like Monday.
Look forward to tee-shirts and no jackets for the next few days! Just be prepared to falling evening temperatures (lows in the 40s). Next change in the forecast towards the end of the weekend...
But for now, Enjoy!

~ V.S.

Spring Tease

Perhaps Punxsutawney Phil was right to predict an early arrival of Spring. Well, it sure will feel like it this week to come! Although I am a skeptic of Phil's forecast, I am going to welcome this unseasonable warmth with open arms! It has been downright cold this Winter. A little taste of Spring fever could do just the trick to help get us out of our Winter slump.


We will be on the rather warm side of things this week. Hopefully it will start to thaw things out around here! I must say; personally, I want all of this snow out of here. It has been around since last year and is not looking too nice anymore. As my favorite Bronx, NY News 12 team would call it: 'snirt.' Otherwise know as snow mixed with dirt. I am ready for this snow pack to melt and for another one to come...Let's see if Mother Nature can wring out another 15 incher storm for us again at least one more time!


Although this week will be rather quiet, The weather pattern for February is still strength in the systems that prevail. And this will bring us back to reality to remind us that again, it is still Winter, despite the Groundhog's Day forecast. Saturday, many people were surprised to see scattered snow flurries. It was a but humorous to see people jump to the assumption that we were going to get hit by another winter storm. Not the case. Instead, there was a short wave that passed through that allowed temperatures to fall low enough near the surface (ground level) to allow for snow flurries to fall, or as the National Weather Service put it: a 'stability surge' allowed for snow flurries to be triggered off. Evaporative cooling (which helped the flurry formation) and the general wind assisted to trigger near 40 mph gusting winds. Those gusting winds take down the air temperature a few degrees to make it feel like the lower 40s- upper 30s (also known as the wind chill). Much of the case will be for Sunday; mostly sunny skies, breezy conditions, scattered snow showers, and temperatures in the 40s. The only difference Sunday is that wind shifts; Warm Air Advection (WAA) will allow a few more clouds as well as temperatures to be on the warmer side Sunday and especially through Monday. This WAA will allow for any falling flurries to fall as rain. But again, this is slight and could/will be early on. 
Increasing clouds Sunday evening will be caused by a cold front. Rain/snow mix could fall. Not to worry though. This will not be an "EVENT" to really discuss. It is just scattered showers, if that but precaution never hurts. Some locations could have temperatures fall below freezing, so a freezing precipitation could fall. Little to no accumulations is expected. This is just a clipper; fast moving cold front, that will last late Sunday through early Monday. All should move out early Monday allowing for warmer air to settle in. The only thing to really speak of is the wind. With the cold front passage in the morning, some pretty strong winds are possible to prevail. Even though air temperatures will be flirting with the 50s, the wind chills will knock down the temperatures (that we feel) a bit into the 40s. 


The rest of the week looks to be rather uneventful well, at least to the weather weenies. Nothing but a dominating high pressure and slightly above average temperatures. Next shot of something: this weekend? 
I suppose this is a nice little reprieve considering the weather we have had up to now...


Most importantly:
For all of the lovers (and haters) on St.Valentine's, cupid certainly shot (or will shoot) a loving arrow at Mother Nature as she will shower us with sunny skies and mild(er) temperatures Monday. Joy! :)


~ V.S. <3

Enjoy it While it Lasts!

It seemed a little like a dream world walking outside earlier to sunny skies, and what? No need for a heavy coat? This isn't Jersey in the dead of Winter! Enjoy this mild air! Go out for a brisk walk during lunch break and get a dose of vitamin D from the sun. Especially considering we have all been so cooped up during this rather harsh Winter. Enjoy Monday's weather...this will not last for long. With mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near 50 (yes, you read that correctly), it just seems too good to be true! All this lovely weather will be swept out of the area as a rather complex weather system moves up the coast late Monday evening through Tuesday. Now, not to worry, I know I mentioned; complex, weather, our coast, all in one sentence. Considering how this Winter has been for us in the Mid-Atlantic/New England states, that is not something that you may want to hear. Thanks to the mild air on top of us, we will really only see rain with a possible wintry mix when the temperatures fall in the evening hours.
The set up of this event is rather neat...

This system is 'complex' because there are different dynamics, systems, and fronts all working together to enhance the evolution of the 'main event.' Referring to the map above, this should have been the kind of weather we should have been having all season; New Jersey located on the boarder line between snow and rain etc.
Before I rant off into a weather discussion, I should add an explanation of a term that I will be using through out: Frontal Boundary. A front (warm, cold, stationary are the most widely known), is a 'transition zone' between airmasses with different densities. Basic physics: warm air is less dense and it rises and cold air is more dense (heavy) and will sink. The two main characteristics that helps to define one air mass versus another are simply two things: temperature and humidity (or moisture content). When two different airmasses approach each other, the 'zone' where the airmasses meet, is called a front or a frontal boundary.

This image helps to provide an example of a front or a frontal boundary. Simply, the warm air is rising over the cold dense air that is near the surface. I ask you to draw your attention to the surface. Observe the two numbers on the map; the 50 degrees F (in the green) and the 42 degrees F (in the blue). This image is showing the advancement of a cold front where colder air is moving East to overtake the warmer air. The two airmasses meet/collide, and a thunderstorm and rainy precipitation is the result in this image. This is a depiction of a Cold Front (or frontal boundary).

Now back to the good stuff!

Part One: An area of low pressure off the Eastern Gulf will develop and trek Northeastward in to the Atlantic, and will continue to move paralleling the East Coast. It is a good thing this system is so far off the coast; it contains a lot of moisture. If cold air was in place and this system moved closer into the coast, easily, another heavy 15 incher snowstorm could occur. But it's not! (wheww!) Although this system will be off shore, impacts will be felt Monday evening in way of rain in southern Jersey up through Central New Jersey. Rain in these areas could be light to moderate, with the heaviest to fall in portions of South Jersey. Other portions of the area will have a potential wintry mix late Monday evening through the early morning hours Tuesday in Central and Northern Jersey. Anywhere from a coating to perhaps a slushy inch or two of snow. Portions of Northwestern New Jersey, New York and other portions of New England could experience anywhere from 2-5 inches of snow by Tuesday. This system will move off the New England coast early Tuesday ending towards the afternoon.

Part Two: This portion of the complex will not greatly affect our area directly, but it will have other impacts to come...Another frontal boundary will be arranged from the North and inland in comparison to the coastal system mentioned in Part One. This next front will continue to lift North into Northern Main and into Canada through Tuesday evening. Tapping into cold air, snow will develop along the frontal boundary from Arkansas (yes, that South!) through the Great Lakes. This will get the Lake Effect snow machine cranking again, producing Lake Effect snow through the upper Great Lakes region. Other portions along this front will allow for a rainy precipitation over the Gulf, Mid-Atlantic, and Central Appalachians through Tuesday. To answer the question before; how will this impact our area? The rain for one, and two, the cold air tapping into the South is not really a good thing if we want to preserve our farms and such this time of year. More on that later.
Part Three: A third storm will move over the Northern Rockies south near the Mexican Border through Tuesday evening. This system will produce snow to fall from the Intermountain region of the Rockies through the Northern and Central Plains, and into parts of the Great Basin late Monday through Tuesday. As this system travels, it will be guided South to portions of Mississippi River Valley (where snow is forecasted to fall) Tuesday evening, by a rather strong high pressure area moving South, from Canada. This high will set up shop over the Northern Plains moving Eastward that will being in very cold and dry Arctic air and will plummet temperatures 30-40 degrees F below average! By Wednesday, snow is in the forecast as well as temperatures in the teens for evening lows, in portions of Texas and flirting with the freezing mark and the 20s along the Gulf States! Again, these freezing temperatures is not good at all for our agriculture industry at this time. Produce along our grocery isles are becoming sparse and more expensive all because of the weather!
In the Tri-State, we will once again be back in the ice box with temperatures in the lower 30s as daytime highs falling to the teens in the evening.

Fun Fact: Yesterday February 6th, 1978, was the catastrophic and historic Nor'ester that brought blizzard conditions across the New England region. Boston received a record 27.1" of snow, along with Providence, Rhode Island with records of 27.6". Sustained hurricane force winds of 86 mph, with gusts of 111 mph, and brought steady snow for 6-12 hours with some areas experiencing snowfall rates of 4 inches per hour!
The storm killed 100 people injuring 4,500. This storm also caused over $520 million (which is about $1.75 billion in present terms) in damages. Imagine a storm like that today!?

~V.S.