Wintry Mess

Thinking about it, I really do not know what is worse; ten inches of snow, or a lovely wintry mixed bag of treats. I mean either way, it is just a hassle to deal with. I think what makes everything so much worse is the general populous. Whether there is a foot of snow on the ground or black ice, people still feel the need to trek out in the elements holding the notion that they are more mighty then good ol' Mother Nature. I remember working at my shop the day of the last storm (the morning it ended) and literally people were pounding on the doors to get in for their morning 'cup of joe,' not understanding why we were not open yet. Humm, let me think: it was a state of emergency and we could not open shop until after seven. I do not drive a 4-wheel drive truck, and am proud to say that I drive like a Grandma in the elements. People, when are you going to realize that you are not mightier than Mother Nature!?

Alright, this next event is not something to be overly excited about. It more of something that will be more annoying, and potentially more hazardous compared to a few inches of accumulating snow. This event is going to be more like a mixed bag of potpourri. Yes, you read it correctly. A wintry messy bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain.
High pressure over our area will slide off the coast through the afternoon as more clouds begin to work their way in through the late afternoon and evening as low pressure off the Georgia coast intensifies through the afternoon Monday. Mind you, this very same system (under a slightly warmer airmass) has brought tornado watches and warnings and has dropped upwards of two inches of rain in Florida Monday. When this system reaches our area late Monday through Tuesday, the onset, it will have a bit of a different story. Much like storms past, this system will position itself off of Long Island creating a lovely mess once again before turning off into the maritime.
There is not question the the air will be cold enough initially to support snow. The question is how fast the air will moisten up before snow beings to fall. Considering the onset, a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of NJ and NY. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Northwest NJ, Eastern NY, as well as portions of Connecticut and New England through Tuesday has been issued  through middle morning Tuesday. Remember, projected conditions could change at any moment of an event. The change over; when and what, is what makes this forecast a bit tricky. Through the early (very early) morning hours Tuesday, the temperatures will begin to increase enough to support a precipitation change over. Sometimes, freezing rain and sleet could be worse then accumulating snow. As the low move further up the coast, the wind will being to shift and blow from the Southeast bringing in some warmer air. This is what initially supports freezing rain. When rain is produced from a warmer airmass and falls through a cold (shallower) airmass. It falls as a liquid and freezes on contact with a cold or freezing surface. Now, if the rain falls through a cold layer that is 'deep' enough, the liquid rain will freeze as it falls, thus forming ice pellets, also known as sleet.

 Representation of Freezing Rain Through the Layers

The aftermath of a freezing rain event is quite beautiful. I looks like something from Mr.Freeze out of a Batman movie. As pretty as it may look, the havoc from the result is not something to be messed with; black ice on roads, down trees and power lines from heavy ice. I'm not saying this particular event will end up the picture below. It can certainly happen. 

Aftermath of a Freezing Rain Event

No matter if snow or freezing rain is what falls, it will still make for a treacherous morning commute. Untreated roads will be slick. Just make sure you give yourself extra, EXTRA time in the morning. By the morning, total snow accumulations could reach anywhere from an inch or two before changing over to freezing rain/sleet. Late morning, the freezing rain should change to all rain, and will be all rain thereafter. Northern portions of NJ, NY, and New England can receive from 2-4 inches of snow and receive more of a freezing rain/sleet change over compared to the rain in NJ. Rainfall, in NJ, at points through the afternoon could be heavy at times and localized flooding could occur, especially within areas of streams and lowlands. This will last through most of day Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Showers, snow and freezing rain can not be ruled out Wednesday before clearing out leaving us with mostly clear and crisp evening skies. 

Temperatures will be rather mild compared to temperatures as of late. High temperatures Wednesday will be flirting with the 40s! Although we will be back in the ice box as temperatures will drop just about 20 degrees Wednesday evening.  The pattern for the end of the week is favoring the cold side. Arctic air drops in for a visit which will allow for high temperatures only in the twenties falling to the single digits by the evening!

Get ready for the wintry mix and touch of mild air...

~ V.S.