Another Doozy on the Way...

My am I loving this the weather this year so far! From December through January there has been so much weather to discuss! Who said a La Nina Winter season wasn't going to be fun? Forecasting, especially for the Northeast has been real fun, especially considering model consensus does not come around until what, 36 hours out of an event occurring...quickly sending the public in a mass hysteria to the grocery store batting down the hatches. I do believe the Tri-Staters are a bunch of Drama Queens. Yes, the snow we receive (and have received has been quite a bit) but this really is not all that much compared to lets say the Rockies or the Northern Plains. Word to the wise: Just stay in and let the weather happen. You can't fight it! Just let it be.

Now to the main event:

Winter Storm Warning has been posted Tuesday through much of Wednesday for central, coastal, and southern New Jersey, NYC, Long Island and a Winter Storm Watch for Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts and the portions of Eastern New England (until the possibility of a warning status is reached Tuesday) . Who is excited??? I AM!
Lets get ready for a double barrel low that will move from the Ohio River Valley and up the East Coast into our region Tuesday evening, deepen and intensify quite rapidly while as the system moves Northeast towards Nova Scotia late Wednesday. As fast as this system moves in, it will drop another significant amount of snow, then quickly move out. Compared to the holiday storm in December, this one will not drop as much snow, at least through portions on west, south and central Jersey and Pennsylvania. However, NYC and New England this could be another winner of a storm. Just this past weekend, heavy bands of snow dropped nearly a foot of snow in parts of Connecticut. Now an additional foot will sure be a joy!
Forecast models have now begun to come into consensus and closing in on a track of the low pressure system, how much and what kind of precipitation to expect. Mixing (rain/snow mixture) is very possible near the coastal areas of New Jersey and Long Island. Thermal profiles do support a snow event through and through for south and central Jersey.
The set up:
With high pressure ever so slowly exiting the region, the snow will be slow to start falling Tuesday. Once it starts snowing...will it snow! This same system dropped anywhere from an inch to eight (8) inches (locally over a foot) of snow along the southern states ( Tennessee through Georgia)!

0000z Wednesday Courtesy of NOAA/NWS/NCEP/HPC

The system will begin to creep in the area through the morning Tuesday with snow beginning to fall  in the afternoon- evening. Portions of southern Jersey could see a light accumulation towards the evening rush hour. The cut-off low will move North and East through the plains as a weak surface low travels up the East coast from  Florida. The strong upper level dynamics come into play from a 120-140 knot jet streak within the area front left quadrant (quadrants indicate the change of temperature and the rising and sinking of pressures..troughing and ridging. For more info check: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/300/ as well as http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/cyc/upa/vrt.rxml), which will help provide for some fairly strong upper vertical velocity and rapid intensification of the system. This intensification will allow for the heaviest snow to fall and accumulate Late Tuesday night through the early morning hours Wednesday. With this rapid intensification, thundersnow can not be ruled out. If you do not know what it is...oh goodness it is such a spectacle! Elevated convection needs to be present and typically occur within Nor'easters (which in this case is our friend this event time).
Snow accumulation:
As mentioned, the heaviest snow will fall late evening Tuesday through the early morning hours Wednesday. Anywhere from 4-8 plus inches of snow could fall through New Jersey and NYC all while approximately 10-15 inches are possible from Long Island through Connecticut. As always, locally, there could be higher amounts of snow accumulation. Winds gusting 20, even 30 mph will make for blizzard conditions, especially near the coastal areas.

Snow Total Forecast Courtesy of NWS/NOAA

The snow will begin to taper off towards Wednesday afternoon. With the trailing closed low and its trough, scattered snow showers can not be ruled out. 

Following this fast moving Nor'easter is Old Man Winter back for a visit. A very strong high pressure will set in place over there area bringing in some very cold and very dry air for the end of the weekend through the weekend. This will actually be the coldest air of the year! No matter how warm you dress, nothing can keep you away from the biting temperatures we are going to feel through the weekend! High...yes, high temperatures will only reach the middle 20s before falling the the teens towards the evening! 

Who is ready for the Summer?

~ V.S.