Update from Last Post

An hour after the last post was posted, the National Hurricane Center released a new update on Tropical Depression Sixteen. The system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph (as an fyi, the max winds to make a system a Tropical Storm is 39 mph - 73 mph, anything lower is a depression), with central pressure of 996 mb. The exact forecast projection is still uncertain. However, considering the tropical flow feeding from the Gulf, models are still forecasting the system to move along the Easter coast. The Tropical Storm Warnings for most of Florida have been lifted, but other watches and warnings are still in effect through Thursday evening. By the time the system move up to our area, it could be downgraded to a depression or lower.

Jersey could be spared the heaviest of the rain. Remember, most of the area is still in severe drought stage, the ground is very dry. One, the rain could come down heavy enough and not be able to absorb into the ground at a fast enough rate to compensate the amount of rain which would end up in potential flooding, and two, at the end of the event, there still wouldn't be enough rainfall to get us out of a drought. 

NCEP GFS Model Total Precipitation: NCEP/NWS/NOAA















This is a model image from the GFS, PCP 36, showing the total rainfall amount (that fell) by the time the system moves out by Friday: most of central Jersey is forecasted to have about 5 inches of rain, with locally heavier amounts. Note: there is a bit of a discrepancy between the models as far as how my precipitation and such should fall, the the GFS has the most through central Jersey. Below is the same time frame from the NAM model, where it has the swath of heavy rain further West of New Jersey.


NCEP NAM Total Precipitation: NCEP/NWS/NOAA

It is still a wait and see game. I do still believe we can and will see quite a bit of rain later this evening through Thursday. As for now, the forecast and such from the previous post will not change.