Don't be Fooled...

Don't be fooled by this mornings sunshine my friends, because more rain is still ahead. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch (and possibly a Flood Warning a little later) along with Gale Warning and High Surf Warnings towards the coastal areas of New Jersey, and New York until Thursday evening. Are you ready for round two!?

Now, you must be asking; "Why all this wet weather all of the sudden?" This pattern that we have been in for the past few days has been extremely tropical. The culprit: this swath of clouds and tropical moisture that is feeding from the Gulf of Mexico. You can get a very good idea of this from looking at the image below. Pretty cool right? Who would think that the Gulf could be driving weather all thousands of miles up to Jersey?



NOAA GOES East Conus Sector: Infrared Channel

Take a look at the green area down by Cuba and off the Florida coast. This is Tropical Depression Sixteen. This tropical low will ride up along a stationary front that is draped over the Eastern coast. Now, don't underestimate the strength of merely a tropical depression. It can, and will drop a significant amount of rain, especially in a short amount of time. Remember hearing in the news just last week, of historical record breaking flooding in Minnesota? Up to ten (10) inches of rain fell in such a short amount of time from a tropical system.
There are Tropical Storm and Tropical Storm Wind Warnings from Florida up to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and Flood Watches (at the moment) from Virginia to Massachusetts coast.



Projected Path of Tropical Depression Sixteen: NOAA

The calm weather will turn for the worse towards this afternoon...the weak high pressure will give way to the tropical low that will gain energy and strength as it heads North from Florida. Forecast models seem to depict deep tropical moisture and strong storm inflow. Streams and creeks will be the first to flood followed by larger rivers; we will be watching the Delaware River as the storm progresses. Depending on how much precipitation falls: rate and amount, will depend on how much cumulative rain we will see. As of now, however it can and probably will change, up to 4 inches generally, but locally heavier up to 7 inches plus and could be more further East...That is A LOT of rain! There is also a chance for embedded thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday.


Physical Geography of New Jersey

Not only is the rain from the main event an issue, but as this storm moves off the coast, the residual runoff water is what poses the main threat. What ever rain fell upstream (i.e. further North) in the Kittatinny Mountain and Highland areas of New Jersey, will follow down the rivers and streams South, collect near Trenton, and make way to dump out in the Delaware Bay.  If you can remember, the flooding that almost always occurs in the Delaware near Trenton is from the runoff from the river up North.

The last weather threat will be the wind. Models are showing a lowering Jet (stream) entering the area early Thursday with winds of around 80 knots (around 70 mph) over Southern regions. Some local wind gusts could reach up to 40-50 knots. A high wind watch has been issued. Be advised of very strong and damaging winds.

With all that said, the Sun will yet again, creep in behind the clouds, as more tropical moisture moves back into the area. The rain arrives this evening, with the bulk of it most likely falling during the early morning hours through the work commute into early afternoon. Expect and be prepared for the worst when it comes to this kind of tricky tropical weather. The system is forecasted to let up towards the evening. Following the system is another pattern change Finally sunny skies that will stick around and temperatures finally giving us a taste of the Fall season. Daytime high temperatures Friday through the weekend will reach to the lower 70s, falling to the middle to lower 50s towards the evening.

Get ready to build an Ark!