Saturday, June 11, 2011

Outrageous Weather!

Whether it is blazing heat, to tornado outbreaks (in Massachusetts no less!), mass flooding, to devastating wildfires...If I did not think otherwise, I would think the world is coming to an end? Perhaps people were correct to think that Apocalypse or Judgement Day was beginning May 21st just last month. All religion aside, in fact it is  climatology to blame for this one.

So far this year, the weather has cost the U.S. billions of dollars in storm related damages making it a new records for the most high-cost weather events according to government records and insurance estimates...and the year is only half over...AND the hurricane season just underway...

From the latest reports from the Climate Prediction Center; ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation)- neutral conditions have developed and been occurring since this past May (2011) and are expected to continue in the Northern Hemisphere through the Summer (2011).
To refresh the memory, ENSO is considered to be a quasiperiodic (occurring in an irregular periodic pattern) climate pattern that occurs across the tropical area of the Pacific Ocean approximately every five years. Scientists can find these patterns by observing variations in sea surface temperature (sst) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, surface air pressure in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is commonly known as the "warm oceanic phase." Typically ENSO can assist in more strong weather events
The transition from La Nina to ENSO- neutral conditions occurred in May through indications of sea surface temperature anomalies from the equatorial Pacific Ocean through east of the International Date Line:  showing near-average SSTs in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although the ocean temperatures are showing more of a transition to ENSO, the atmospheric circulation anomalies are still indicating La Nina; weaker and low surface air pressure.

ENSO- neutral. Courtesy of Wikipedia
Referring to the image above: This image is a slice of the ocean. The colors represent the SST with red being the warmest temperature. The warming water (the bright red) is pushed towards the west side of the Pacific as the colder water is pulled up along the west coast of South America. Considering this, one could read the image and see that the SST is warmer to the west. A thermocline is more or less a 'cap' of warm water.. it inhibits mixing and allows for the water to warm near the surface. This thermocline is not good for the fishing industry simply because there is no nutrients to the water er-go there is no fish. The equatorial winds warm as they flow west across the Pacific allowing for convection to occur (the circulation of rising warm air). This allows for hot air to rise in the western Pacific and flows it eastward to cool descending air into South America.

Winds also play a pretty big role in the oscillations. As of late, the reports have suggested rather anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds weakening but have have been quite persistent over the central Pacific Ocean. Altogether between the findings from the atmospheric and oceanic measurements, all is pointing towards a transition  or change of the pattern to ENSO-neutral conditions...keep in mind that some impacts form La Nina are still present and could be for the next month or for the rest of the summer in the global Tropics in the Northern Hemisphere.
Through reading the reports, this forecast is just a preliminary forecast to try to get a better understanding on the weather and climate to come for next few months. In particular, to try to get a better understanding of how this years hurricane season will play out.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have already predicted this season to be a rather active one. Along with the ENSO-neutral conditions, SST over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (also known as the Main Development Region) are above-average, especially this early in the season (June 1st was the first day of the hurricane season). Water temperatures off the coast of NJ alone are already flirting with the 70s! We are talking about at earliest late July water temperatures. Hurricanes and tropical storms thrive off of warm waters.  Past hurricane seasons (climatology) has shown that these conditions explained above have produced a rather active Atlantic hurricane season. If this plays out, it will not be a good situation for the east coast...especially the already awfully eroded New Jersey beaches.
The NHC is forecasting a comparable active season in the Atlantic since 1995. The following estimates are a 70% probability for each of the ranges of activity for this 2011 season:

  • 12-18 Named Storms,
  • 6-10 Hurricanes
  • 3-6 Major Hurricanes
  • An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median. (NHC)

Here's to a beautiful hurricane season! Hopefully we don't see a Cat. 3 make its way into NYC...(I will discuss what could happen in the next few posts).

Next discussion: The Midwest Flooding, devastating tornadoes, record breaking heat, the southwest wildfires;  is there a link?

Monday, May 2, 2011

Spring 2011 Tornado Outbreak

Forecasters knew it was going to be a bad day when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasted the possibility of a  "high risk" severe weather day...to hear tornado sirens were screaming just after sunrise on April 26th, 2011. The National Weather Service (NWS) estimated there was a total of 312 tornadoes during the entire outbreak starting at 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26th to 8:00 a.m. April 28th, 2011.  During the 24-hour period alone, from April 27th to April 28th, the NWS estimated there were a total of 226 tornadoes (yes, this many is JUST 24-hours).
Considering the amount of tornadoes and the strength of theme over such a large area, just about 90% of them issued Tornado Warnings and Watches. The public was well aware of the unfolding events, even a day before it all unveiled. The people were educated and warned but they just could not outrun the wrath and strength of these tornadoes. Just think: if we today, did not have the technology and information from storms past imagine how many more fatalities there would have been? The fact that people know what tornadoes are, what their destruction could cause, and how to try to keep safe, is enough to say that Meteorologists are doing their jobs. 
This event was surpassed the record books! The largest previous number of tornadoes in one single event spawned 148 tornadoes in April 1974!
At least 344 people were killed throughout the entire April 2011 outbreak, and 334 fatalities in just the 24-hour people between the 27th to the 28th,  with thousands injured. This is the most people kill

  • This is the most people killed by tornadoes in a two-day period since April 5-6, 1936, when 454 people were killed, mostly in Tupelo, Mississippi, and Gainesville, Georgia.
  • This is the deadliest single day for tornadoes since the March 18, 1925, tornado outbreak that had 747 fatalities across 7 states (including the Tri-State Tornado). (NWS). 

I spoke to a friend and fellow Meteorologist earlier (Thursday May 2nd), and he told me of a Tweet from Jim Cantore's (of the Weather Channel) Twitter account: @JimCantore Jim Cantore

I just spoke with mayors office. 373 missing in Tuscaloosa county (Alabama). 323 are from the city of Tuscaloosa. This is STRICTLY missing persons.

Heats and prayers go out to all of those affected. 


All must be wondering: how did such a deadly outbreak come about?
I was looking at the weather maps a day or so before and I remember thinking that these maps were not showing a pretty station...I knew, we all knew it was going to be bad. The only thing was that we did not know it was going to be THIS bad...EF-5 tornadoes are extremely rare, and to have one of these completely threw us for a loop. I was watching the TV (The Weather Channel who had some incredible coverage) as well as streaming a few local Alabama new stations on my computer. When these Meteorologists (who thought they've seen it all) saw what was unfolding, their mouths dropped and you could see the tears building up but could not show the emotion because they knew the damage that was being done, but could not do anything about it. I felt the same way. I think I can safely say that we all did.

These storms were from a series of supercells (typically thunderstorms that rotate around a vertical axis. Such storms ofter produce severe weather at ground level including damaging winds, large hail and/or tornadoes.
Supercell Formation
 Most strong and violent tornadoes are produced by supercells) as part of a strong cold front that
was pushing through the area. The ingredients were perfect for a tornadic scenario to play out. The temperatures were very warm, Gulf moisture was being pumped in, and upper level jet streaks were sinking to the surface (thus creating the wind shear profiles). Referring to the video below, the cloud pattern showed evidence for severe weather to break. There is a pool of stable cool air (a stable airmass) along the North (you can see it as a swirl of clouds along the top of the image). While this pool of air was rotating, moist air from the Gulf and the Atlantic was being pushed north and west.
                                                                                                                           
This is where the 'collision' of the two air masses was located was enough energy to create severe weather. As you continue to watch, through the afternoon hours of the time lapse (peak daytime heating) you see the clouds over the southeast grow, almost explode, as the energy in this collision peaks, creating very strong storms. The last ingredient that really helped to stir the pot was the jet stream. It is difficult to see (and it move past rather quick, but if you rewind back to the 27th), you will see what looks like a narrow band of fast moving air/wind that blew from the north and east, between the two air masses: this was a split jet streak (this split is what allowed for tornadoes to and unsettled weather to occur all the way up to the mid-Atlantic and Plains states).
Split Jet Stream
The winds near the surface were blowing from south and east, and the jet stream was blowing from the west (you can close your eyes and see the different wind directions occurring!), creating quite powerful shear, or small-scale wind circulations, which helped to create these supercell storms form before the cold front boundary. The storms moved east and north with the jet stream guiding the way. The upper-level low was very slow to move allowed for storm-after-storm to affect the same area for a much longer time then typically as well as the assisting in the energy building to generate such strong and long lived storms/tornadoes.

The following images is what forecasters were looking for to warn the public that was in immanent danger. Meteorologists look for what looks like a hook in the RADAR imagery. This hook formation shows how the wind profiles change and creation of a vertical tornado vortex.
Long Track Tornadoes (Red Boxes)


Barrow County, AL
Typically, when looking at a RADAR image, the darker colors; red and yellows, mean the heavier the rain or hail. In this case, the bright colors are the aggregate signature of car parts, shredded tree branches, pieces of houses, dirt, and debris that has been sucked up thousands of feet into the sky by the tornado vortex. The blue circles in both images show the area of this specific tornado. The image below is the same RADAR and location. This RADAR is under a different lens; the storm base velocity. The colors in this image are mainly red and green (sometimes purple and white). This RADAR can detect certain storm characteristics such as tornado vortex signatures and the relative storm motion.
This image circled in blue, shows the location of the tornado in this area. The bright green within the red shows the divergence and strong updraft (inflow of air) occurring at the surface. If you refer to a few posts back, I listed an image that showed the components of and the inflow and outflow of air through a tornado. Most of the time, "debris balls" will form from out the tornadoes. Like mentioned before, debris can be picked up on the RADAR images. Debris from this tornado traveled nearly 20 miles (in the air) and fell outside of Tuscaloosa! Click this link to check out the 3-D base velocity of the Barnesville Tornado.

Storm Reports:
SPC Storm Reports 4/27/11
 There were 13 confirmed tornadoes through the southeast. The following are the stats of each:

Tornado 1 (Pickens County)                                  
Event Date: 4/27/11                                                
Event Type: EF-2 Tornado                                      
Est. Peak Winds(MPH): ~ 125                                
Injuries/Fatalities: Unknown                                      
Damage Path Length(miles): @ least 3                      
Width: .8 mile                                                          

Tornado 2 (Coaling Tornado, Tuscaloosa/Jefferson)
Event Date: 4.27/11
Event Type: EF-3 Tornado
Peak Winds: Up to 155
Injuries/Fatalities: Unknown
Damage Path: 18.3
Width: 200 yds.

Tornado 3 Cahaba Heights Tornado (Jefferson )        
Event Date: 4/27/11                                                    
Event Type: EF-2 Tornado                                          
Est. Peak Winds: Up to 120 mph                                
Injuries/Fatalities: Unknown                                         
Damage Path Length (miles): 7.9                                  
Width: 200 yds.                                                           

Tornado 4 Odenville Tornado (St.Clair County)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: EF-2
Est. Peak Winds: Up to 120
Injuries/Fatalities: Unknown
Damage Path Length (miles): 3.9
Width: 200 yds

Tornado 5  Hackleburg Tornado (Marion County)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: EF-5 Tornado
Est. Peak Winds: > 200 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: @ least 25+, many injuries
Damage Path (miles): 25.2


Tornado 6 Shotsville Tornado (Marion County)

Event Date: 4.27/11
Event Type: Potentially > EF-3
Est. Peak Winds: > 140 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: 6 and rising
Damage Path (miles): 19.1


Tornado 7 (Sumter/Pickens County)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: EF-3
Est. Peak Winds: ~ 140
Injuries/Fatalities: Unknown
Damage Path (miles): @ least 9


Tornado 8 Tuscaloosa/ Birmingham Tornado
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: High End EF-4
Est. Peak Winds: @ least 165-200 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: @ least 65 rising
Damage Path (miles): 80.3 miles
Width: 1.5 miles


Tornado 9 Haleyville (Marion/Winston Counties)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: Potentially > EF-3
Est. Peak Winds: ~> 140 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: 
Damage Path (miles): 31.8

Tornado 10 Sawyerville/Eoline (Greene/Hale/Bibbs Counties)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: EF-3
Est. Peak Winds: ~ 145
Injuries/Fatalities: at least 7 fatalities +, many injured
Damage Path (miles): 71.3 
Width: 1 mile


Tornado 11 (Jefferson/St.Clair/Calhoun/Etowah/Cherokee Counties)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: Potentially > EF-3
Est. Peak Winds: ~ >180mph
Injuries/Fatalities: Numerous fatalities, many injured
Damage Path (miles): 72 
Width: up to 1.25 miles

Tornado 12 Wateroak Tornado (Hale/Bibb Counties)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: EF-1
Est. Peak Winds: ~ 105
Injuries/Fatalities: Many injured
Damage Path (miles): 5.5
Width: 150 yds.


Tornado 13 Lake Martin Tornado (Elmore/Tallapoosa/Chanbers Counties)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: Potentially > EF-3
Est. Peak Winds: ~ > 170 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: at least 9 fatalities +, many injured
Damage Path (miles): 44.1 miles
Width: 1/2 mile

NWS/NOAA Confirmed Tornado Track in Alabama
The listed storm reports above are from the southeast alone. There were dozens of other confirmed tornadoes   throughout the Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and extending up to New York.

Thank goodness for technology...all the lives that were saved (many more people could have perished if they were not told) and just the educational value now; we have so much information and footage of what happened as we can study, educate and save that many more lives now. It is such a tragedy that all those lives and all the destruction had to occur  in order for people to know the wrath of Mother Nature.
Just a note: May is the peak for the tornado season...hopefully his outbreak is not indicative of a very active season.

For more updated information, check the NWS website: www.nws.noaa.gov. 

Monday, April 4, 2011

What the Frack?

Yes, you read this correctly...
As turmoil continues in the Middle East and gas prices soar, everyone is feeling the pinch on the cost not only on the gas to fill up their cars, but the cost of everyday things as well. If you have noticed when you go the grocery stores, the weekly grocery list still remains the same, but seems to be costing you more...

If the crisis in the Gulf (specifically this past Summer, but the damage is still ongoing) didn't scare Americans to start turning away from our oil dependency, perhaps this next bit of info. will.

Fracking (hydraulic fracking or hydrofracking) is a the "new" and hotness to drilling natural gas. This is process is resulted by 'fracturing' rocks, more specifically Shale and/or Coal rock beds. This fracturing is done through by a drill that digs a hole or well into a reservoir within this rock formation to increase the rate of extracting the oil and natural gas.
Seems quick and harmless right? What better way to satisfy our oil addiction than to drill from a land source that is in our country!

I will give you the facts and the research. You can decide which side you will be on.

Fractures in rock beds can be man-made or natural (frost weathering) by internal fluid pressure that opens the fractures through the rocks. Man-made fractures are created by introducing a proppant material (made of sand grains, ceramics, and other chemical particulates that will be injected at high pressure into the rock bore to allow the natural gas to flow more freely.

Seems harmless right? But, it gets better...

This process is being used quite a but in western PA in an area that that has Marcellus Shale rock formation. This area was once inaccessible, but advances in drilling technology have enabled companies to tap into the the slightly regulated world of fracking! Granted, these areas that this technology is being used, is rich in oil. Yes, Americans DO need to lay off our addiction of foreign oil. Using domestic sources will temporary help ween Americans off our oil dependence, until we finally realize there are other sources.

Now, the issue is the following: the wastewater generated from the fracking process poses a serious health risk. Not to mention, the process in general; the high pressure could cause cracks in the rock beds, that could allow for this toxic mixture (that contains trace amounts of radiation; radium and uranium, all of which are cancer causing) into local water tables as well as bring radioactive material towards the surface, but some of the wastewater that has been allowed to be treated at the local sewage treatment plants can not be cleaned and extract the chemicals from the fracking process. So, what water is safe to drink?

Drilling natural gas from the Marcellus Shale has been occurring for years towards the North and West of New Jersey. But new research supports, and many environmentalists now fear, that there is another potential gas-rich rock formation. This formation is located in northwest New Jersey and is comprised of Utica, also known as Martinsburg Shale near the Kittatinny Mountain area around the Delaware Water Gap and High Point, New Jersey.  Current drilling that is already too close to home resides across the river in northeast Pennsylvania. As mentioned before, this fracking process does have significant toxic waste as a result. The fear is tainting the Delaware River Basin which provides as a water sources for communities and cities along the Delaware River.
Natural Gas Wells in Delaware River Basin
Courtesy of Delaware River Basin Commission
The question on the minds of environmentalists is not a matter of 'if' fracking occurs in New Jersey...it is a matter of 'when.' Especially considering New Jersey does not have any kind of regulation against drill companies from 'exploring' for natural gas in our fine state. Some scientists believe that 'when' might not be an issue to raise alarm considering that Utica Shale may not have potential for natural gas.
This is still too close to home...

Drilling companies need to uphold the standards of The Fracturing Responsibility and Awareness of Chemicals (FRAC) Act, to make sure that the quality and clarity of the drinking water is a top priority. But then, you have cases like this:
If there were stricter regulations and lack of oversight... This would not be an issue.

So just think about it: Where do you stand on this process of extracting natural oil? Would you rather want to save an extra few bucks at the gas pumps, or save the precious clean water we drink that everyone takes for granted?

In the country of the free and a land of (where it seems like there are) limitless resources for the luxury of life, clean water and water conservation is a HUGE issue that needs to be addressed today, before we deplete our water resources for tomorrow. Want to lean how to conserve more water?

One idea, one step, one person at a time, we can change this world. 
~ V.S.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Earth Hour 2011

Occurring on Saturday, March 26th, an event called Earth Hour will take place at 8:30 p.m. local time. Earth Hour is an event where hundreds of millions of people around the world join together to take action on climate change. This is done by performing one very simple action — turning off our lights for one hour. Earth Hour provides a way for all of us to join together to have a positive impact in the fight to protect our future from the impacts of climate change.


Earth Hour first began in Sydney, Australia, and quickly grew into a worldwide occurrence. In 2008, 50 million individuals, 371 cities in 35 countries participated. In 2009, nearly one billion people participated along with 4,000 cities and 88 countries.

But Earth Hour isn’t just for big cities — anyone can participate.

Make the commitment and turn off all your lights for just one hour. We hope that during this hour it will help save energy, spread awareness, and allow time to think about things you can do in your daily life that will benefit this planet. There is only one Earth, so we must do what we can to help save it. Our actions add up; Earth Hour is a first step!

It is only an hour...

Join the movement to help save our climate, raise awareness and to honor Mother Earth...just take a look around at what she has given us.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Battle of the Seasons

Spring has arrived but Old Man Winter is not quite ready to give up his post for the season. I have been saying for the past month or so: " Mr. Winter, please give us at least 10 more inches of snow!"
Well, portions of the U.S. will have a bit more then that as a rather complex and major storm is forecasted to drop around a foot of snow for the Northern Plains and any where from a dusting to near 10 inches for parts of the Tri-state. Although it may officially be the Spring season, we do need to remember that we need to allow a few weeks of transitioning weather in order for the season to get into the swing of things.

Back to the main event! The winter storm in in discussion is developing over the Central Plains and will move towards the Ohio Valley through Wednesday and off the East Coast by Thursday. Although there may be sunny skies and mild temperatures well into Tuesday evening for much of the Tri-State, the increasing clouds is indicative of the system to come. The high pressure over the area Tuesday will move to the North. This high pressure will reinforce colder air down across New York and Pennsylvania. This cold air will also tap into moisture that will be over this cold air which could end up bringing down banding of heavy and potentially significant snowfall. With that said, Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for Northeast Pennsylvania, Southern New York, and portions of Northwest New Jersey. In these locations, anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow could fall. Considering how much snow was squeezed out of this past storm on Sunday (just about 5 inches of snow in the Poconos), it would not be too surprising if the higher elevations received higher amounts.  This snow is going to be the heavy wet snow at that, with the potential for rather high snow ratios.
Central NJ could be issued a Winter Storm Advisory if temperatures tap into the cooler air and evaporative cooling occurs is allowed; a wintry mix and a short amount of time for snow is possible. For the near term for Tuesday evening, rain is likely the p.type to fall. The models are forecasting isentropic lift (Lifting air along an upward sloping isentropic surface, the physical process of the air lifting due to erroneous overrunning) and deep convergence (both together signify intensification, the presence of strong precipitation, and convection). This could allow for a quick change over from rain to snow, that will run well into the southern NJ and PA. The only thing that will make this snow easier to handle is that the surface temperatures will still be on the warm side, so accumulation on roadways will not be much, if any thing a slushy mix.
March 22, 2011 Forecast Courtesy of ACCUWEATHER
Once the 'burst' of precipitation (snow) happens in the morning Wednesday, there is a forecasted lull in the system. There is still the question of how much will fall and how much will stick. The solar angle, believe it or not, does play in a factor. The higher sun angle and increased solar radiation will allow for temperatures to rise, especially at the surface and allow for this p.type to change over to a sleet/freezing rain mix. Again, this mixing will allow for the snow in NJ/PA and further South and East to be more wet and heavy. The further North and West, the snow will become more fluffy (due to the colder temperatures and less rain mixing).
Storm Snowfall Totals Courtesy of NOAA/NWS
 Much will be the same for the most part Thursday. Just be aware of slick roads. Total snow accumulations are are posted above. Clearing through the day Thursday, the snow/rain will begin to taper off. The pattern for the next week does seem to be a little on the cold side and will also result in rather stormy.

The battle of the seasons continues...

~ V.S.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Breaking News: Magnitude 8.9 Earthquake Outside of Japan

Magnitude 8.9 earthquake hit Japan; the most powerful earthquake for Japan in at least 100 years, Friday at 5:46:23 UTC (which was 2:46:23 P.M. local time at the epicenter). The distance of the epicenter is:
80 miles East of Sendai, Honshu, Japan (one of the hardest hit cities from the the tsunami)
110 miles East of Yamogata, Honshu, Japan
231 miles NE of Tokyo Japan

This massive quake was a result of thrust faulting near the subduction zone interface plate boundary between the Pacific and North America plates.
Subduction Zone of Pacific and North America Tectonic Plates
According to the U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS), the Pacific plate moves westward (subducts) with respect to the North American plate at a velocity of 88mm per year. Granted this number seems insignificant, but when pressure builds between the plates from the movement a significant earthquake can release, much like what happened in Japan Friday.  The Pacific plate thrusts under Japan along the Japan Trench. The earthquake that was unleashed as trust faulting occurred along the subduction plate boundary.

Pacific Ring of Fire
Now, referring to the image above, the subduction zone is a process of one plate pushing downward beneath another plate into the underlying mantle when the plates move toward each other. The plate that is denser will slide under the thicker less dense plate. 

The earthquake is one issue, the next is the tsunami that followed. Below is a video of a whirlpool that was formed from the earthquake. Absolutely fascinating.



The video and images from this event is breathtakingly heart wrenching and absolutely astonishing. Writing about it will not do any justice. Watching The Today Show Friday morning, I could not help but be speechless to the events that were unavailing on the other side of the globe.



The breakdown of a tsunami is as follows:
A tsunami is a series of water waves caused by a displacement of a large volume of water. Just a note, tsunami is a Japanese word meaning 'harbor' or 'wave.' In the case of Friday, the water above the earthquake area was displaced from its equilibrium position. As prior mentioned, this was a thrust fault earthquake. The abrupt movement of the plates created the vertical motion of the water.
 earthquake beneath the water along the ocean floor.

Tsunamis have small amplitude (wave heights). All the energy is accumulated under the water surface. Tsunamis have very long wavelengths that are often hundreds of kilometers long, which is why they can go unnoticed while at sea...typically when there is enough warning time for a tsunami, boats will travel away from the coast and harbors to further out to sea in order to not be affected. Once the wave reaches shallower water and the Continental Shelf, the wave height grown. This is when the tsunami can grow to up to be 30 foot wall of a wave! These waves travel at nearly 600 miles per hour. The footage of the tsunami moving along the shores of Sendai, Japan show just how fast the water came onto shore. People can't outrun the force and speed of this water.

Formation of a tsunami approaching the coast
How to predicting a tsunami
The Western coast line will be under a low tide during the projected time the tsunami is supposed to touch the shore of the West Coast. Mother Nature is fortunately working in our favor in that respect. However, low or high tide, a tsunami can still do damage to coastal areas. It just depends of the geography of the coastal land.  San Andres Fault, along the California coast is especially vulnerable during times like this when there is such a massive quake a few thousand miles away across the Pacific Ocean. The plates are in always in constant motion. Earthquakes occur everyday. Fingers crossed that isn't the beginning of a chain of events that triggers more significant earthquakes along the Ring of Fire. An event like this is an unnerving reminder that California is due for a significant earthquake.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Thunderstorms


If there is one thing I am more passionate about than an amazing cup of coffee, that would be Thunderstorm awareness.

In just 2010 alone, 28 lives were taken and 238 people were injured by lightning strikes in the United States. This is too many people. With proper awareness and education, these numbers can go down.
Now to the basics…
Thunder will not hurt you. It is the lightning that will do the damage. Within every thunderstorm, there will be lightning.

This lightning occurs when the air within the storm is rising and descending separating positive and negative charges. Water and ice particles (which is what makes up clouds along with other particulates), affect the electrical charge distribution. The strongest of these negative charges are concentrated near the base of the clouds and the strongest of the positive changes are concentrated down near the Earth’s surface. While this is occurring, a positive net charge is formed on the surface. Physics tells us that ‘like’ charges repel each other and opposite charges will attract. The separation between the surface and the clouds sets the stage for an electrical charge to occur between the two. The air starts to break into a pathway that the electrical charges can travel through. This pathway is formed when the air becomes ionized between the cloud and Earth (positive ions will want to travel up to towards the cloud to become neutralized).  This pathway is lightning! You would think that this ‘pathway’ would be a straight line in nature, fact is that ‘air’ is made up of other particles, dust, and such that will interfere and will break down quickly creating the usual jagged lines of the lightning.

Fun Fact: The average lightning strike is hundreds to thousands of degrees, even hotter than the surface of the sun!
The resulting thunder that you hear is essentially a shock wave that is a result of the very rapid heating and cooling of air near that lightning pathway.
Lightning is indeed very neat, and there is SO much more to discuss but let’s not let our excitement get us off topic! I will cover lightning in another posting at a later time.

Imagine getting zapped and fried by hundreds of watts of energy and having your heart stop. In a split second your heart goes in to cardiac arrest and you’re dead.  I was blessed to have met and done some work with a lightning strike survivor. His story is something amazing….you can check it out on: (insert link). In fact, I highly suggest you check this out. Ever since I met him, I have also been on a mission to spread the word on thunderstorm/lightning safety awareness. Long story short, two things helped save his life: 1.) The sweat and moisture on his body, and 2.) A fellow golfer who knew CPR.

Learn how to safe a life: Learn More About CPR

Speaking of Physics, this video clip from struckbylightning.org is fascinating!




How are thunderstorms formed?
A few key ingredients are a necessary:
1.)    Unstable air; convection, warm air rising rapidly and cold air sinking
2.)    Moisture to form clouds and precipitation
3.)    Lift: air in fronts(frontal storms), sea breezes (airmass storms), mountain ranges (orographic storms). Any kind of lifting mechanism.
If the warmer surface air continues to be forced to rise and colder air sinks, convection will occur. This is such a key element when Meteorologists look for thunderstorm formation.  
Supercell thunderstorms are some of the most strongest microscale storms (as well as some of my favorite weather). This occurs when there is a super strong updrafts and downdrafts. The updrafts allow for rapid intensification of the storm. The downdrafts can typically allow for the intense momentum of the storm. As the updrafted air, sometimes traveling at upwards of 90 mph plus, cools, water vapor condenses and forms cumulus clouds, cumulonimbus clouds in this case. When this condensation occurs, heat (latent heat energy) is released and adds to further growth of the thunderstorm. The downdrafts will allow for precipitation to fall in the form of rain or ice (hail) as well as potentially very strong winds in excess of 60 mph!


How to protect yourself:

Thunderstorms can occur in any season (yes, even in the Winter).  They are more prominent during the Spring and Summer months. When you see the clouds beginning to billow and dark skies are moving in, it is time to seek shelter.
Note: You can have blue sunny skies about you and you can still be struck by lightning by a storm that is 5-20 miles away!
If you hear a clap of thunder, you are already too close to be struck. Seek shelter in a building or an enclosed vehicle. Please, do not hide under a tree or small sheds! When inside, stay away from water; showers (the metal pipes are conductors of electricity,  and anything that carries an electrical current (that is wired into the wall) such as a computer, telephone, video games and such. It is also a good idea to stay away from windows and doors as you can get struck by lightning there as well.

If you are caught outside, remember this rule: lightning will strike anything that is tall and isolated. That means you! Be sure to find a low spot that is away from poles, fences, and trees. **If you begin to feel your skin start to tingle (aside from nerves), squat low to the ground on the balls of your feet…you want to make yourself the smallest target as possible making yourself take up the smallest space as possible to minimize your contact with the ground.

Now you know a little more about thunder storms. It is not something to take lightly…Spread the word!