Battle of the Seasons

Spring has arrived but Old Man Winter is not quite ready to give up his post for the season. I have been saying for the past month or so: " Mr. Winter, please give us at least 10 more inches of snow!"
Well, portions of the U.S. will have a bit more then that as a rather complex and major storm is forecasted to drop around a foot of snow for the Northern Plains and any where from a dusting to near 10 inches for parts of the Tri-state. Although it may officially be the Spring season, we do need to remember that we need to allow a few weeks of transitioning weather in order for the season to get into the swing of things.

Back to the main event! The winter storm in in discussion is developing over the Central Plains and will move towards the Ohio Valley through Wednesday and off the East Coast by Thursday. Although there may be sunny skies and mild temperatures well into Tuesday evening for much of the Tri-State, the increasing clouds is indicative of the system to come. The high pressure over the area Tuesday will move to the North. This high pressure will reinforce colder air down across New York and Pennsylvania. This cold air will also tap into moisture that will be over this cold air which could end up bringing down banding of heavy and potentially significant snowfall. With that said, Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for Northeast Pennsylvania, Southern New York, and portions of Northwest New Jersey. In these locations, anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow could fall. Considering how much snow was squeezed out of this past storm on Sunday (just about 5 inches of snow in the Poconos), it would not be too surprising if the higher elevations received higher amounts.  This snow is going to be the heavy wet snow at that, with the potential for rather high snow ratios.
Central NJ could be issued a Winter Storm Advisory if temperatures tap into the cooler air and evaporative cooling occurs is allowed; a wintry mix and a short amount of time for snow is possible. For the near term for Tuesday evening, rain is likely the p.type to fall. The models are forecasting isentropic lift (Lifting air along an upward sloping isentropic surface, the physical process of the air lifting due to erroneous overrunning) and deep convergence (both together signify intensification, the presence of strong precipitation, and convection). This could allow for a quick change over from rain to snow, that will run well into the southern NJ and PA. The only thing that will make this snow easier to handle is that the surface temperatures will still be on the warm side, so accumulation on roadways will not be much, if any thing a slushy mix.

March 22, 2011 Forecast Courtesy of ACCUWEATHER

Once the 'burst' of precipitation (snow) happens in the morning Wednesday, there is a forecasted lull in the system. There is still the question of how much will fall and how much will stick. The solar angle, believe it or not, does play in a factor. The higher sun angle and increased solar radiation will allow for temperatures to rise, especially at the surface and allow for this p.type to change over to a sleet/freezing rain mix. Again, this mixing will allow for the snow in NJ/PA and further South and East to be more wet and heavy. The further North and West, the snow will become more fluffy (due to the colder temperatures and less rain mixing).

Storm Snowfall Totals Courtesy of NOAA/NWS

 Much will be the same for the most part Thursday. Just be aware of slick roads. Total snow accumulations are are posted above. Clearing through the day Thursday, the snow/rain will begin to taper off. The pattern for the next week does seem to be a little on the cold side and will also result in rather stormy.

The battle of the seasons continues...

~ V.S.