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| RAP-UAR Satellite Image of Irene |
The reason for our projection and concern is the following graphic:
The dip in the jet stream, an upper-level high over the south-central states, as well as the high-pressure system aloft over the Atlantic (the clockwise circulations) are all helping to create a near perfect alleyway for Irene to track up the East Coast. A day or two ago, the popular thought was the battle between the jet and the Atlantic high-pressure; the jet was was wishcasted to win the battle bringing Irene a bit further out to sea saving the East Coast from the worst. However, this is not so much looking to be the case: Now hurricane model guidence has shifted Irene further to the west after it moves away from Cape Hatteras and closer to our coast.
Once Irene makes a direct hit to North Carolonia, there are projected storm tracks along the I-95 Corridor from NC all the way to the North East. Some of the model runs are projecting
This system is a very large system: The size of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina combined that have tropical storm force winds (sustained up to 73 mph) that extend up to 200 miles away from the center of the hurricane! Even if we get more of a direct hit, the storm strength will be downgraded to at least a Category 1, which is still significant. Forecasters are not to optimistic about this cyclone downgrading anytime soon. Since Irene is so massively huge, it will take a lot for it to lose strength; this will happen as it moves into cooler waters (but keep in mind, the sea surface temperatures (SST) are quite warm for us, which are in the upper 70s-lower 80s), and another thing about this storm is that since it is so large, it is moving very slow (NW @ 12-13mph). With that said; a substantial amount of rain will fall over a long period of time. Lastly, as mentioned before,
the wind is huge component to the cyclone. Referring to the Infrared image above, the darker red and orange colors around the eye of the hurricane have tropical storm force winds extending up to 200 miles away from the storm!
Our (myself and fellow meteorologists) excitement is contained, for our concerns and safety is taking presidence in this situation.
Our concerns are as followed:
- Beach errosion: substantial beach erosion from this Winter has decimated our Jersey beaches thus making our coasts that much more susceptible to storm surge.
**Officials have been evacuating beaches along the East Coast because storm surge and high winds will make beaches NOT SAFE TO BE ON! DO NOT GO TO THE BEACH TO SEE IRENE!**
- Storm surge is the TOP killer in a hurricane, not so much the rain and winds:
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| Storm surge and high tides |
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| Storm Surge Zones for Coastal NYC and LI |
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| Perpendicular winds of the storm to the coast add to excessive water piling up |
- Saturated ground: The ground is already saturated from all the rain we have had this month. Parts of Philidelphia and New Jersey are already in a surplus of +10-15 inches of rainfall. Flooding WILL occur, and will be a major problem for highly prone flooding areas, especially due to the forecast of prolonged tropical rain.
New York City and Long Island have been and will evacuate flood prone areas for the fear that Irene will make a direct hit on the city.
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| NYC flood prone map. |
- Winds: more rain from the tropical system will increase the risk of vulnerability and compromise the root systems of trees. Add in gusting and sustained hurricane force of tropical storm force winds and trees will be uprooted and significant power outages that could potentially affect some 55 million people along the East Coast. Along with strong winds includes the risk for embedded tornadoes that could be formed at any point along the eye-wall of the cyclone.
Forecasters have been referring to spaghetti maps for the potential track of the storm. The different colored
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| Potential tracks of Hurricane Irene Courtesy of spaghettimodels.com |
lines are the different weather models and their interpolation of the forecast. As the models become more organized and begin to agree on the storm track, the lines will be closer together and you will be able to see more confidence on the map in terms of where the storm will go. You can see this confidence by looking at the first two points in front of the red cyclone (red) image. All the models agree that the storm will move in that direction. As it moves further up the coast, the confidence because to weaken as the lines on the map seem to go in different directions, but generally show the same area of uncertainty. Position and time, like I said is key; the position of the eye of the hurricane will depend on how much rain, flooding, heavy winds (up to 100mph sustained winds), and power-outages.
I will keep you updated on details of the forecast track of Irene. For now, this is very useful information on the timing and impacts Irene will have:
The last time NYC was directly hit by a hurricane was in 1893 New York Hurricane...think of how much as changed in the city since then...:how many people will be affected, how much flooding and damage could be done.
Hurricane Gloria in 1985, had this kind of storm track as Irene...once it hit the cooler long Island waters, the hurricane dropped down from a category 2 to a category 1. Residents said in the end that the storm was not as bad as expected but were happy they prepared for the worst because it could have been much worse.
A final note: the hurricane can shift storm track at any time making a direct hit or nearly nothing at all. Storm preparation is key. Better to be prepared then not.
Prepare for the worst: water, blankets, sandbags, flashlights, batteries, candles, battery operated radios, charged cell phones, non-perishable foods, first-aid kits, evacuation plans.
* Be sure to evacuate when officials tell you to do so: there is a reason why they are telling you to evacuate!
~ V.S.
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