East Coast Atlantic Hurricanes!

In-light of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) updating and increasing the potential tropical seson forecast... it got the brain juices flowing and it got me wondering about what would why this forecast changed...

NOW..To all my fellow weather weenies: If you took a look at the recent GFS weather model (although this is a two week out projection AND it is the rather not-so-trustworthy GFS), I personally can not help but feel mildly excited, though not putting all eggs in one basket, about the possible tropical weather pattern.

Considering the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic Hurricane season began in June, the season really does not ramp up until September: giving the oceans time to really warm up from the Summer Sun.

Hurricane activity over past 100 years. Updated in 2007. Courtesy of : TWC

This season, at least in the Atlantic, has not been anything to speak of, but as you can see from the graphic, there is still plenty of time for tropical systems including strong hurricanes.
Just think this: The infamous Hurricane Katrina made its name in late August of 2005.

While looking at the forecast models today (Please note: I am not going to display an image of the models as they are just a projection and can change in the next few hours and days over the model runs),  I saw a couple of 'systems' making way towards our beautiful Tri-State...Not to instill fear, I am not saying it will happen, just making an observation and statement that a major storm could happen...
                             ---------------------------------------------------------------------
The updated forecast issued August 4 by the NHC:

The 2011 season is expected to be comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

• 14-19 Named Storms,
• 7-10 Hurricanes
• 3-5 Major Hurricanes
• An ACE range of 135%-215% of the 1981-2010 median

Hurricane Ike strengthening in the Caribbean. 

These odds have changed and the amount of tropical storms have increased, thus an added risk for New Jersey to be hit by a hurricane...greater then just a tropical storm... greater then a category 1 strength hurricane! It has certainly happened (indeed damaging and costly at that!), and will occur again...Click here to check out a list of tropical systems that brushed the states and shore of the New Jersey Metro area. We are due for another...it is only a matter of time.

Hurricane Earl

(Image above)
- Hurricane Earl: formed August 35, 2010. Dissipated September 5th, 2010.
- Weakened to a T.S. by the time it rode up the New England coast
- (Not recommended) I went to see the surf @ Belmar, NJ when this was passing by..INCREDIBLE waves!

If you checked out the link above, you can see that New Jersey and the New England states have seen quite a bit of storms. I must say though, the one that really sticks out to me is the Great 1938 New England Hurricane...

I will explain in my next post...All I will say is that this cyclone is just a bit of a reminder of how vulnerable we are and delicate life and our coastlines can be... 

TO BE CONTINUED...


~V.S.