After Hurricane Irene reeked havoc along the shores of North Carolina, she is/was well on the move up the coast. It is rather unbelievable that over 65 million people were prepared for the worst case scenario over a 48 hour time span. Major kudos to the forecastors and broadcasters and Emergency Management officials that took all the sleepless, wall-pounding frustrating hours warning people of what could happen and pretty much save all these people!
Much like E-R, the weather is a 24-7 industry...although my day-job does not take me so much in the weather world, however, I can not help but not sleep prior to and during this historic event! I truely believe, that what I write and Tweet is my public service to warn the people around me in my reach about the weather (hazards to come). To quote Oprah: "Embrace the world that is calling you, and use your calling to serve the world."
BACK TO IRENE:
Hurricane Irene. Category 1. Eye in DELMARVA @ 2232UTC on Aug27. Courtesy of RAP UCAR.
After passing over NC, on way up the Atlantic: STILL as of 2300 UTC (or 7:00 P.M. EDT, Irene is steady and strong at a Category 1 Hurricane and is expected to remain so up the East Coast as it makes its 2nd landfall, or pass just East of the New Jersey shore.
Everyone was telling me today: "Oh, WeatherWoman, it is just ONLY a Category 1, and we in Central Jersey ONLY have tropical storm warnings! There is nothing to worry about!"
I continued to tell them there is plenty to fear my friends: Tons of rain and strong winds! This storm is huge (literally) and is packing tropical storm force winds 200 miles away from the eye of the hurricane!
- Astronomical high tides: meaning there is a New Moon that will bring an even higher tide. Add on storm surge from a hurricane that has potential to pass over the Jersey coast and and the waves will be even higher: expected to be 20 feet! Because of this, Atlantic City Casinos have closed shop!
- Heavy rain! Oh, so much rain! For many areas in NJ, it will not take long to reach flood stage: perhaps ONLY a few feet and BOOM your flooding! Forecastors and officials are watching for water contamination so have bottled water ready! So much rain and with no place to go, roads are flooding, and flooding fast! Officials have closed down flood plane roads for extra precaution.
- Winds: the ground is already SO saturated. Heavy tropical winds plus just even 25-30 mph winds and you have trees falling down in a short period of time, let along over the course of 8 plus hours! When driving home from work, LITERALLY, trees looked like they were drooping: kind of like how they would if you over watered a plant...and you could even start to see mounding bumps in the ground where the stump/bottom area of the trees are...
Its hard not to feel a little wary when you hear the winds howling outside! :-/
-Embedded tornadoes : Are Irene approaches closer to the shores of New Jersey, an embedded tornado can not be ruled out. In the red shaded portion of the hurricane shows where the on shore winds are some of the strongest and there in lies the chance for tornadoes.
Now, these tornadoes are not going to pop up on the RADAR as what 'normal' convective tornadoes would look like. These tornadoes are part of a slightly larger area of 'wind' or spiraling rain bands that are moving very fast and drop down as quickly as they can pop back up. The changing of the wind speeds with height acts like a mechanism for these tornadoes. They can be on the ground for a few minutes, but still do a lot of damage. This circulation is found of the RADAR as part of a Bow-echo but then forms a hook-echo (it literally looks like a hook at the end) and BOOM! There is a tornado. Because they happen SO fast, it is hard to issue a warning when they form. Thus the reason for the look out and the Tornado Watch that was posted from the National Weather Service. As Irene's eye gets closer, and the winds become increasingly higher, the risk for spawning tornadoes becomes greater. The scary thing is this: There is generally no lightning or hail associated with these tornadoes!
Irene is a major category 3 hurricane. This storm is HUGE and slowly moving. It is still early enough for the storm to strengthen because the ocean waters along the coasts of South and North Carolina are in the middle 80s just adding more fuel to the hurricane which is forecasted to strengthen to a category 4 due to these warmer waters.
RAP-UAR Satellite Image of Irene
There is no question that the East Coast will be affected and certainly no question that Cape Hatteras, North Carolina will be affected, if not directly hit by a major (category 3) hurricane in the next 24-26 hours. The question there in lies what track Irene will take after it hits and passes through Cape Hatteras.
The reason for our projection and concern is the following graphic:
The dip in the jet stream, an upper-level high over the south-central states, as well as the high-pressure system aloft over the Atlantic (the clockwise circulations) are all helping to create a near perfect alleyway for Irene to track up the East Coast. A day or two ago, the popular thought was the battle between the jet and the Atlantic high-pressure; the jet was was wishcasted to win the battle bringing Irene a bit further out to sea saving the East Coast from the worst. However, this is not so much looking to be the case: Now hurricane model guidence has shifted Irene further to the west after it moves away from Cape Hatteras and closer to our coast.
Once Irene makes a direct hit to North Carolonia, there are projected storm tracks along the I-95 Corridor from NC all the way to the North East. Some of the model runs are projecting
This system is a very large system: The size of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina combined that have tropical storm force winds (sustained up to 73 mph) that extend up to 200 miles away from the center of the hurricane! Even if we get more of a direct hit, the storm strength will be downgraded to at least a Category 1, which is still significant. Forecasters are not to optimistic about this cyclone downgrading anytime soon. Since Irene is so massively huge, it will take a lot for it to lose strength; this will happen as it moves into cooler waters (but keep in mind, the sea surface temperatures (SST) are quite warm for us, which are in the upper 70s-lower 80s), and another thing about this storm is that since it is so large, it is moving very slow (NW @ 12-13mph). With that said; a substantial amount of rain will fall over a long period of time. Lastly, as mentioned before,
the wind is huge component to the cyclone. Referring to the Infrared image above, the darker red and orange colors around the eye of the hurricane have tropical storm force winds extending up to 200 miles away from the storm!
Our (myself and fellow meteorologists) excitement is contained, for our concerns and safety is taking presidence in this situation.
Our concerns are as followed:
- Beach errosion: substantial beach erosion from this Winter has decimated our Jersey beaches thus making our coasts that much more susceptible to storm surge. **Officials have been evacuating beaches along the East Coast because storm surge and high winds will make beaches NOT SAFE TO BE ON! DO NOT GO TO THE BEACH TO SEE IRENE!**
- Storm surge is the TOP killer in a hurricane, not so much the rain and winds:
Storm surge and high tides
Storm Surge Zones for Coastal NYC and LI
Perpendicular winds of the storm to the coast add to excessive water piling up
- High tide: High tides will be higher making wave heights and storm surge that much higher...
- Saturated ground: The ground is already saturated from all the rain we have had this month. Parts of Philidelphia and New Jersey are already in a surplus of +10-15 inches of rainfall. Flooding WILL occur, and will be a major problem for highly prone flooding areas, especially due to the forecast of prolonged tropical rain.
New York City and Long Island have been and will evacuate flood prone areas for the fear that Irene will make a direct hit on the city.
NYC flood prone map.
Plan accordingly for potential evacuation and flooding.
- Winds: more rain from the tropical system will increase the risk of vulnerability and compromise the root systems of trees. Add in gusting and sustained hurricane force of tropical storm force winds and trees will be uprooted and significant power outages that could potentially affect some 55 million people along the East Coast. Along with strong winds includes the risk for embedded tornadoes that could be formed at any point along the eye-wall of the cyclone.
Forecasters have been referring to spaghetti maps for the potential track of the storm. The different colored
Potential tracks of Hurricane Irene Courtesy of spaghettimodels.com
lines are the different weather models and their interpolation of the forecast. As the models become more organized and begin to agree on the storm track, the lines will be closer together and you will be able to see more confidence on the map in terms of where the storm will go. You can see this confidence by looking at the first two points in front of the red cyclone (red) image. All the models agree that the storm will move in that direction. As it moves further up the coast, the confidence because to weaken as the lines on the map seem to go in different directions, but generally show the same area of uncertainty. Position and time, like I said is key; the position of the eye of the hurricane will depend on how much rain, flooding, heavy winds (up to 100mph sustained winds), and power-outages.
I will keep you updated on details of the forecast track of Irene. For now, this is very useful information on the timing and impacts Irene will have:
The last time NYC was directly hit by a hurricane was in 1893 New York Hurricane...think of how much as changed in the city since then...:how many people will be affected, how much flooding and damage could be done.
Hurricane Gloria in 1985, had this kind of storm track as Irene...once it hit the cooler long Island waters, the hurricane dropped down from a category 2 to a category 1. Residents said in the end that the storm was not as bad as expected but were happy they prepared for the worst because it could have been much worse.
A final note: the hurricane can shift storm track at any time making a direct hit or nearly nothing at all. Storm preparation is key. Better to be prepared then not.
In-light of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) updating and increasing the potential tropical seson forecast... it got the brain juices flowing and it got me wondering about what would why this forecast changed...
NOW..To all my fellow weather weenies: If you took a look at the recent GFS weather model (although this is a two week out projection AND it is the rather not-so-trustworthy GFS), I personally can not help but feel mildly excited, though not putting all eggs in one basket, about the possible tropical weather pattern.
Considering the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic Hurricane season began in June, the season really does not ramp up until September: giving the oceans time to really warm up from the Summer Sun.
Hurricane activity over past 100 years. Updated in 2007. Courtesy of : TWC
This season, at least in the Atlantic, has not been anything to speak of, but as you can see from the graphic, there is still plenty of time for tropical systems including strong hurricanes.
Just think this: The infamous Hurricane Katrina made its name in late August of 2005.
While looking at the forecast models today (Please note: I am not going to display an image of the models as they are just a projection and can change in the next few hours and days over the model runs), I saw a couple of 'systems' making way towards our beautiful Tri-State...Not to instill fear, I am not saying it will happen, just making an observation and statement that a major storm could happen...
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The updated forecast issued August 4 by the NHC:
The 2011 season is expected to be comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:
14-19 Named Storms,
7-10 Hurricanes
3-5 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 135%-215% of the 1981-2010 median
Hurricane Ike strengthening in the Caribbean.
These odds have changed and the amount of tropical storms have increased, thus an added risk for New Jersey to be hit by a hurricane...greater then just a tropical storm... greater then a category 1 strength hurricane! It has certainly happened (indeed damaging and costly at that!), and will occur again...Click here to check out a list of tropical systems that brushed the states and shore of the New Jersey Metro area. We are due for another...it is only a matter of time.
Hurricane Earl
(Image above)
- Hurricane Earl: formed August 35, 2010. Dissipated September 5th, 2010.
- Weakened to a T.S. by the time it rode up the New England coast
- (Not recommended) I went to see the surf @ Belmar, NJ when this was passing by..INCREDIBLE waves!
If you checked out the link above, you can see that New Jersey and the New England states have seen quite a bit of storms. I must say though, the one that really sticks out to me is the Great 1938 New England Hurricane...
I will explain in my next post...All I will say is that this cyclone is just a bit of a reminder of how vulnerable we are and delicate life and our coastlines can be...
This is rather exciting eh? Tropical Storm Bret is our first Tropical Storm for the Atlantic so far this hurricane season!
Courtesy of NOAA, NHC, NWS. July 19th, 2011
As of Tuesday, July 19th, the following are the stats. for Bret:
- Max sustained winds @ 50mph
- Moving NE @ 8mph
- Forecasted to be categorized as a Tropical Depression Thursday-Friday when it is at the closest to the NJ shores.
- Expect a rough surf and high rip tides Thursday through the weekend.
The storm is in rather warm waters...warm considering how unusually warm the Atlantic water have been so far this season. Ocean temperatures this time of year typically run in the 60s, but they are have 5-10 plus degrees higher. There is a slight chance this storm could strengthen, but it is doubtful. Bret is forecasted to follow course away from the East Coast through midweek as a strong Mid-Upper Level Ridge sets up shop in the Mid-Atlantic states, pushing Bret away from the coastline.
Ridge Axis showing the 'rising' of air
A ridge is an elongated area of High Pressure, Rising air and the weather at the surface is typically warm (very warm) and dry. This ridge will be over the Mid-Atlantic states towards the end of the week packing the heat the Central Plains have been having, where they have had temperatures in the 80 and 90 with heat indices in the 100s+ in the mornings! Keep in mind for the Central and Northern Plains: yes, they have had tremendous heat, BUT they have also have had A LOT of rain and flooding the past month...where is all that water/moisture going to go? It is all going to be evaporated back into the atmosphere and add that much more humidity back into the air. So, their heat indices are that much more oppressive because of that extra moisture. That's some yucky stuff!
Keep in cool and hydrated and more to come on the heat!
As the temperatures are rising, so are your Summer energy bills! Record breaking heat is making you crank the ACs just to try to stay cool!
In the Central Plains, temperatures have been soaring well into the 90s accompanied with dewpoints in the 70s plus = heat indices OVER 100 degreesF. That is some impressive, oppressive heat!
This week it is OUR turn, as a Bermuda High sets up shop cranking the heat pump into full blast!
Temperatures in the New Jersey metro area are expected to reach the 90s in addition to high dewpoints and humidity, it will also feel well into the 100s through the week (at least we have the unsettled possibility of having scattered showers and storms to momentarily cool things down, other have not been so fortunate).
Things to keep in mind: - Keeping hydrated is paramount! If you feel thirsty, you are already dehydrated! - Try not to workout or even be outside between the hours of 2-4 p.m. as it is the solar noon where the Sun is the strongest and at the highest point of the sky.
- Wear WHITE or LIGHT clothing, as these colors will reflect the sunlight making you feel a lot cooler then you would wearing black or dark colors. - Do not keep pets outside too long, they suffer in the heat as well. - Check on elderly and children; they both are highly sensitive to heat exhaustion/stroke.
Just remember to be smart when out in the heat... it's some scary stuff and nothing you want to mess with.
Here are some tips to help you lower your energy costs as "Heat Wave #5" barrels down on the New Jersey metro area:
- If you have your ACs on... set the temperature a little higher (like @ around 72ish degreesF) and at a low speed setting; you will use significantly less energy. - Make sure ALL windows and doors are closed to prevent the outside heat from leaking in and help your AC from not running so much. - If the temperature is cooler (and bearable), especially in the evenings, give the AC a break and open the windows.
- During the daytime, draw the blinds/shades to block the sun, do this especially during the hottest part of the day (from noon until sunset). - Plant trees or vegetation to shade your WEST-FACING windows/doors. The shade will shield your house from the heat and sun rays, and the transpiration (moisture released from the plants) will allow for a bit more cooling, at least outside. - Cut the time for your HOT showers. How water will use you water heater more and thus using more energy to make the water hot. - ...This also applies to doing a load of laundry: set the water to warm or cold, it will put less work on your water heater... keep the hot water for heavy duty cleaning only. - Try not to use the dryer (when doing laundry). The heat outside is a natural air/clothing dryer! - Check out installing ceiling fans in your house. You can keep the thermostat at a higher temperature, or just turn it off all together if you have the ceiling fans keeping air circulation. - If you do not have an AC or ceiling fans, just simply placing a fan in your window can cool a room significantly! Oh, how I remember those college dorm days...
- When cooking, try not to cook with the oven during the really hot days. This will just add more heat to the house and make the AC run even more just to try to cool the house down even more! Quick fix: Cook outside on the grill (plus nothing tastes better then a burger on a grill on a hot Summer day!
I do need to apologize as I once promised to write and update my blog frequently. However, as we all know, sometimes life can just drain us from our pleasures leaving us too exhausted to take a minute to sit and breath.
I love to write. I love to write about weather and everything environmental and Earth related. Follow me on Twitter, @WeatherWomanNJ, as I do post there frequently.
I thank you for all of your support and interest and I look forward to having lots of Twitter followers!
Thank you thank youu!
Just remember to keep an eye to the sky and share with me what you see!
Whenever something devastating happens to the weather, people are quick to blame the occurrence to global climate change. I can remember an instance when I was working with the weather desk at WNBC; there was a series of microbursts in northern NJ and outside of Yonkers, NY. We were covering the story and the storm reports for that storm. Producers from the news desk upstairs called us asking for a quote about whether this event was a direct link to global warming...
There will always be the debate on this issues as people try to put a 'reason why' to everything that happens. Reason for a political agenda to scientifically or religions purposes.
Through extensive studying on climate change during my undergrad, I will tell you that I am rather a skeptic tot he climate change idea. Research and data suggest that carbon dioxide concentrations are increasing, mostly to anthropogentic (human) activity and as a a result, with higher amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere, the average global temperatures are increasing, ice caps/glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, the climates are changing, animals and other life forms are going extinct.
So we see all these things happening right? How can we directly link these things to us, human beings, and global climate change. We humans and scientists can theorize all we want and try to predict what will happen to our good planet. But I ask you to take this into consideration: the Earth has been going through changes and transitions for the past 4.5 billion years. Humans have been in existence on this planet for ONLY the past 2.5 million years of Earth's life. Prior to our existence as humans on this planet, we have a geological idea of how the planet may have been. And these geological indications prove that the planet and her climates and atmospheres underwent climatic changes and periods of warming and cooling. However, we humans are exacerbating the warming trends of the climate today.
It is for a fact that since the Industrial Revolution, global concentrations of CO2 have significantly increased...a direct link to our human activity on the planet. Since the Industrial Revolution and taking into consideration that the global human population is at an all time high, global temperatures have also been on the rise. In the more recent decades, scientists have been trying to point a link to the heavier precipitation and dangerous weather in the Northern Hemisphere and rising concentrations of CO2 and global warming. And perhaps in the next decade, the Earth will go through a cycle of global cooling..then what will the climate regulate to? Ever heard of the Little Ice Age?
However extreme weather has been occurring for several milleniums and it is nothing new... it is just becoming more sensationalized and more people are becoming aware (which is a good thing!) and more people are being affected, perhaps because of over population?
"Four times since the last ice age, at intervals roughly 3,000 years apart, the Northeast has been struck by cycles of storms far more powerful than any in recent times, according to a new study. The region appears to have entered a fifth era in which such superstorms are more likely, the researchers say.
And:
… the work illustrates that natural extremes of weather — what one researcher, Paul R. Bierman, a geologist at theUniversityofVermont, called a ”drumbeat of storminess” — are many times greater than those experienced in the modern era.
And
The clues from the lakes appear to mesh with evidence of other periods of stormy weather around theNorth Atlantic, including variations in traces of salt from sea spray locked in layers ofGreenlandglaciers, the authors said. They also appear synchronized with the occasional cold snaps inEuropethat sent glaciers grinding forward down alpine valleys, the study says.
The similar storm rhythms seen around theNorth Atlanticmay mean that the overall pattern is driven by slow cycles in a pole-girdling wind and pressure pattern called the Arctic oscillation, which in turn could be caused by cycles of solar activity, they said.
The current trend is so prolonged and diffuse that the century-plus history of recorded weather data is not long enough to pick up a pattern. But it is etched quite clearly in the lake beds, said another author, Eric J. Steig, a climatologist at theUniversityofWashington.
The scientists checked to see whether influences other than big storms might have made the surrounding earth more apt to crumble. They considered forest fires, but found no evidence of raised concentrations of charcoal in the lake bottom.
”This shows that in human experience, at least historical human experience, we don’t know what this climate system is capable of,” Dr. Steig said.
While revealing the rising potential for epic storms, the new findings are likely to confound efforts to discern whether human alterations of the atmosphere, particularly a buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, are increasing the frequency of severe downpours, as many climate experts have predicted.
”If this cycle continues,” Mr. Noren said, ”the frequency and severity of intense rainstorms that can cause massive flooding should continue to increase for the next several hundred years."
~ I could not say any of this any better...
Note: to continue off of what was quoted: the transitions between oscillations (ENSO and La Nina etc.) could become more drastic and severe transitions creating possible harsher weather in certain locations. Hence, the reason for the latest severe weather: floods, forest fires, extreme heat, deadly tornadoes and hurricanes.
The Earth is a very weathered and established system...The planet will regain control and regulate its system processes again at some point. How and when this will happen, we have no idea or control, but it will happen. Scientific history has proven. However, right now, we can help the cause, and try to slow down all of these changes that are occurring.
We can become more conscious everyday about the decisions we make and how we go about life. Instead of being just purely 'users' of the given resources, why can't we become recyclers of resources?
I dare you to become more conscious of what you use and how you use for a day... it might make you feel like a horrible person once you realize what use and perhaps you'll become humbled when you figure out the way to live life in a synchronous with the planet and JUST BE! And help to build more sustainable communities and become ECO-SUPPORTERS!
Weigh in and comment on what you believe below in the comment boxes.
Whether it is blazing heat, to tornado outbreaks (in Massachusetts no less!), mass flooding, to devastating wildfires...If I did not think otherwise, I would think the world is coming to an end? Perhaps people were correct to think that Apocalypse or Judgement Day was beginning May 21st just last month. All religion aside, in fact it is climatology to blame for this one.
So far this year, the weather has cost the U.S. billions of dollars in storm related damages making it a new records for the most high-cost weather events according to government records and insurance estimates...and the year is only half over...AND the hurricane season just underway...
From the latest reports from the Climate Prediction Center; ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation)- neutral conditions have developed and been occurring since this past May (2011) and are expected to continue in the Northern Hemisphere through the Summer (2011).
To refresh the memory, ENSO is considered to be a quasiperiodic (occurring in an irregular periodic pattern) climate pattern that occurs across the tropical area of the Pacific Ocean approximately every five years. Scientists can find these patterns by observing variations in sea surface temperature (sst) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, surface air pressure in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is commonly known as the "warm oceanic phase." Typically ENSO can assist in more strong weather events
The transition from La Nina to ENSO- neutral conditions occurred in May through indications of sea surface temperature anomalies from the equatorial Pacific Ocean through east of the International Date Line: showing near-average SSTs in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although the ocean temperatures are showing more of a transition to ENSO, the atmospheric circulation anomalies are still indicating La Nina; weaker and low surface air pressure.
ENSO- neutral. Courtesy of Wikipedia
Referring to the image above: This image is a slice of the ocean. The colors represent the SST with red being the warmest temperature. The warming water (the bright red) is pushed towards the west side of the Pacific as the colder water is pulled up along the west coast of South America. Considering this, one could read the image and see that the SST is warmer to the west. A thermocline is more or less a 'cap' of warm water.. it inhibits mixing and allows for the water to warm near the surface. This thermocline is not good for the fishing industry simply because there is no nutrients to the water er-go there is no fish. The equatorial winds warm as they flow west across the Pacific allowing for convection to occur (the circulation of rising warm air). This allows for hot air to rise in the western Pacific and flows it eastward to cool descending air into South America.
Winds also play a pretty big role in the oscillations. As of late, the reports have suggested rather anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds weakening but have have been quite persistent over the central Pacific Ocean. Altogether between the findings from the atmospheric and oceanic measurements, all is pointing towards a transition or change of the pattern to ENSO-neutral conditions...keep in mind that some impacts form La Nina are still present and could be for the next month or for the rest of the summer in the global Tropics in the Northern Hemisphere.
Through reading the reports, this forecast is just a preliminary forecast to try to get a better understanding on the weather and climate to come for next few months. In particular, to try to get a better understanding of how this years hurricane season will play out.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have already predicted this season to be a rather active one. Along with the ENSO-neutral conditions, SST over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (also known as the Main Development Region) are above-average, especially this early in the season (June 1st was the first day of the hurricane season). Water temperatures off the coast of NJ alone are already flirting with the 70s! We are talking about at earliest late July water temperatures. Hurricanes and tropical storms thrive off of warm waters. Past hurricane seasons (climatology) has shown that these conditions explained above have produced a rather active Atlantic hurricane season. If this plays out, it will not be a good situation for the east coast...especially the already awfully eroded New Jersey beaches.
The NHC is forecasting a comparable active season in the Atlantic since 1995. The following estimates are a 70% probability for each of the ranges of activity for this 2011 season:
12-18 Named Storms,
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median. (NHC)
Here's to a beautiful hurricane season! Hopefully we don't see a Cat. 3 make its way into NYC...(I will discuss what could happen in the next few posts).
Next discussion: The Midwest Flooding, devastating tornadoes, record breaking heat, the southwest wildfires; is there a link?
Forecasters knew it was going to be a bad day when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasted the possibility of a "high risk" severe weather day...to hear tornado sirens were screaming just after sunrise on April 26th, 2011. The National Weather Service (NWS) estimated there was a total of 312 tornadoes during the entire outbreak starting at 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26th to 8:00 a.m. April 28th, 2011. During the 24-hour period alone, from April 27th to April 28th, the NWS estimated there were a total of 226 tornadoes (yes, this many is JUST 24-hours).
Considering the amount of tornadoes and the strength of theme over such a large area, just about 90% of them issued Tornado Warnings and Watches. The public was well aware of the unfolding events, even a day before it all unveiled. The people were educated and warned but they just could not outrun the wrath and strength of these tornadoes. Just think: if we today, did not have the technology and information from storms past imagine how many more fatalities there would have been? The fact that people know what tornadoes are, what their destruction could cause, and how to try to keep safe, is enough to say that Meteorologists are doing their jobs.
This event was surpassed the record books! The largest previous number of tornadoes in one single event spawned 148 tornadoes in April 1974!
At least 344 people were killed throughout the entire April 2011 outbreak, and 334 fatalities in just the 24-hour people between the 27th to the 28th, with thousands injured. This is the most people kill
This is the most people killed by tornadoes in a two-day period since April 5-6, 1936, when 454 people were killed, mostly in Tupelo, Mississippi, and Gainesville, Georgia.
This is thedeadliest single day for tornadoes since the March 18, 1925, tornado outbreak that had 747 fatalities across 7 states (including the Tri-State Tornado). (NWS).
I spoke to a friend and fellow Meteorologist earlier (Thursday May 2nd), and he told me of a Tweet from Jim Cantore's (of the Weather Channel) Twitter account: @JimCantore Jim Cantore
I just spoke with mayors office. 373 missing in Tuscaloosa county (Alabama). 323 are from the city of Tuscaloosa. This is STRICTLY missing persons.
Heats and prayers go out to all of those affected.
All must be wondering: how did such a deadly outbreak come about?
I was looking at the weather maps a day or so before and I remember thinking that these maps were not showing a pretty station...I knew, we all knew it was going to be bad. The only thing was that we did not know it was going to be THIS bad...EF-5 tornadoes are extremely rare, and to have one of these completely threw us for a loop. I was watching the TV (The Weather Channel who had some incredible coverage) as well as streaming a few local Alabama new stations on my computer. When these Meteorologists (who thought they've seen it all) saw what was unfolding, their mouths dropped and you could see the tears building up but could not show the emotion because they knew the damage that was being done, but could not do anything about it. I felt the same way. I think I can safely say that we all did.
These storms were from a series of supercells (typically thunderstorms that rotate around a vertical axis. Such storms ofter produce severe weather at ground level including damaging winds, large hail and/or tornadoes.
Supercell Formation
Most strong and violent tornadoes are produced by supercells) as part of a strong cold front that
was pushing through the area. The ingredients were perfect for a tornadic scenario to play out. The temperatures were very warm, Gulf moisture was being pumped in, and upper level jet streaks were sinking to the surface (thus creating the wind shear profiles). Referring to the video below, the cloud pattern showed evidence for severe weather to break. There is a pool of stable cool air (a stable airmass) along the North (you can see it as a swirl of clouds along the top of the image). While this pool of air was rotating, moist air from the Gulf and the Atlantic was being pushed north and west.
This is where the 'collision' of the two air masses was located was enough energy to create severe weather. As you continue to watch, through the afternoon hours of the time lapse (peak daytime heating) you see the clouds over the southeast grow, almost explode, as the energy in this collision peaks, creating very strong storms. The last ingredient that really helped to stir the pot was the jet stream. It is difficult to see (and it move past rather quick, but if you rewind back to the 27th), you will see what looks like a narrow band of fast moving air/wind that blew from the north and east, between the two air masses: this was a split jet streak (this split is what allowed for tornadoes to and unsettled weather to occur all the way up to the mid-Atlantic and Plains states).
Split Jet Stream
The winds near the surface were blowing from south and east, and the jet stream was blowing from the west (you can close your eyes and see the different wind directions occurring!), creating quite powerful shear, or small-scale wind circulations, which helped to create these supercell storms form before the cold front boundary. The storms moved east and north with the jet stream guiding the way. The upper-level low was very slow to move allowed for storm-after-storm to affect the same area for a much longer time then typically as well as the assisting in the energy building to generate such strong and long lived storms/tornadoes.
The following images is what forecasters were looking for to warn the public that was in immanent danger. Meteorologists look for what looks like a hook in the RADAR imagery. This hook formation shows how the wind profiles change and creation of a vertical tornado vortex.
Long Track Tornadoes (Red Boxes)
Barrow County, AL
Typically, when looking at a RADAR image, the darker colors; red and yellows, mean the heavier the rain or hail. In this case, the bright colors are the aggregate signature of car parts, shredded tree branches, pieces of houses, dirt, and debris that has been sucked up thousands of feet into the sky by the tornado vortex. The blue circles in both images show the area of this specific tornado. The image below is the same RADAR and location. This RADAR is under a different lens; the storm base velocity. The colors in this image are mainly red and green (sometimes purple and white). This RADAR can detect certain storm characteristics such as tornado vortex signatures and the relative storm motion.
This image circled in blue, shows the location of the tornado in this area. The bright green within the red shows the divergence and strong updraft (inflow of air) occurring at the surface. If you refer to a few posts back, I listed an image that showed the components of and the inflow and outflow of air through a tornado. Most of the time, "debris balls" will form from out the tornadoes. Like mentioned before, debris can be picked up on the RADAR images. Debris from this tornado traveled nearly 20 miles (in the air) and fell outside of Tuscaloosa! Click this link to check out the 3-D base velocity of the Barnesville Tornado.
Storm Reports:
SPC Storm Reports 4/27/11
There were 13 confirmed tornadoes through the southeast. The following are the stats of each:
Tornado 13 Lake Martin Tornado (Elmore/Tallapoosa/Chanbers Counties)
Event Date: 4/27/11
Event Type: Potentially > EF-3
Est. Peak Winds: ~ > 170 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: at least 9 fatalities +, many injured
Damage Path (miles): 44.1 miles
Width: 1/2 mile
NWS/NOAA Confirmed Tornado Track in Alabama
The listed storm reports above are from the southeast alone. There were dozens of other confirmed tornadoes throughout the Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and extending up to New York.
Thank goodness for technology...all the lives that were saved (many more people could have perished if they were not told) and just the educational value now; we have so much information and footage of what happened as we can study, educate and save that many more lives now. It is such a tragedy that all those lives and all the destruction had to occur in order for people to know the wrath of Mother Nature.
Just a note: May is the peak for the tornado season...hopefully his outbreak is not indicative of a very active season.
For more updated information, check the NWS website: www.nws.noaa.gov.
Yes, you read this correctly...
As turmoil continues in the Middle East and gas prices soar, everyone is feeling the pinch on the cost not only on the gas to fill up their cars, but the cost of everyday things as well. If you have noticed when you go the grocery stores, the weekly grocery list still remains the same, but seems to be costing you more...
If the crisis in the Gulf (specifically this past Summer, but the damage is still ongoing) didn't scare Americans to start turning away from our oil dependency, perhaps this next bit of info. will.
Fracking (hydraulic fracking or hydrofracking) is a the "new" and hotness to drilling natural gas. This is process is resulted by 'fracturing' rocks, more specifically Shale and/or Coal rock beds. This fracturing is done through by a drill that digs a hole or well into a reservoir within this rock formation to increase the rate of extracting the oil and natural gas.
Seems quick and harmless right? What better way to satisfy our oil addiction than to drill from a land source that is in our country!
I will give you the facts and the research. You can decide which side you will be on.
Fractures in rock beds can be man-made or natural (frost weathering) by internal fluid pressure that opens the fractures through the rocks. Man-made fractures are created by introducing a proppant material (made of sand grains, ceramics, and other chemical particulates that will be injected at high pressure into the rock bore to allow the natural gas to flow more freely.
Seems harmless right? But, it gets better...
This process is being used quite a but in western PA in an area that that has Marcellus Shale rock formation. This area was once inaccessible, but advances in drilling technology have enabled companies to tap into the the slightly regulated world of fracking! Granted, these areas that this technology is being used, is rich in oil. Yes, Americans DO need to lay off our addiction of foreign oil. Using domestic sources will temporary help ween Americans off our oil dependence, until we finally realize there are other sources.
Now, the issue is the following: the wastewater generated from the fracking process poses a serious health risk. Not to mention, the process in general; the high pressure could cause cracks in the rock beds, that could allow for this toxic mixture (that contains trace amounts of radiation; radium and uranium, all of which are cancer causing) into local water tables as well as bring radioactive material towards the surface, but some of the wastewater that has been allowed to be treated at the local sewage treatment plants can not be cleaned and extract the chemicals from the fracking process. So, what water is safe to drink?
Drilling natural gas from the Marcellus Shale has been occurring for years towards the North and West of New Jersey. But new research supports, and many environmentalists now fear, that there is another potential gas-rich rock formation. This formation is located in northwest New Jersey and is comprised of Utica, also known as Martinsburg Shale near the Kittatinny Mountain area around the Delaware Water Gap and High Point, New Jersey. Current drilling that is already too close to home resides across the river in northeast Pennsylvania. As mentioned before, this fracking process does have significant toxic waste as a result. The fear is tainting the Delaware River Basin which provides as a water sources for communities and cities along the Delaware River.
Natural Gas Wells in Delaware River Basin
Courtesy of Delaware River Basin Commission
The question on the minds of environmentalists is not a matter of 'if' fracking occurs in New Jersey...it is a matter of 'when.' Especially considering New Jersey does not have any kind of regulation against drill companies from 'exploring' for natural gas in our fine state. Some scientists believe that 'when' might not be an issue to raise alarm considering that Utica Shale may not have potential for natural gas.
This is still too close to home...
Drilling companies need to uphold the standards of The Fracturing Responsibility and Awareness of Chemicals (FRAC) Act, to make sure that the quality and clarity of the drinking water is a top priority. But then, you have cases like this:
If there were stricter regulations and lack of oversight... This would not be an issue.
So just think about it: Where do you stand on this process of extracting natural oil? Would you rather want to save an extra few bucks at the gas pumps, or save the precious clean water we drink that everyone takes for granted?
In the country of the free and a land of (where it seems like there are) limitless resources for the luxury of life, clean water and water conservation is a HUGE issue that needs to be addressed today, before we deplete our water resources for tomorrow. Want to lean how to conserve more water?
One idea, one step, one person at a time, we can change this world.
~ V.S.
Occurring on Saturday, March 26th, an event called Earth Hour will take place at 8:30 p.m. local time. Earth Hour is an event where hundreds of millions of people around the world join together to take action on climate change. This is done by performing one very simple action — turning off our lights for one hour. Earth Hour provides a way for all of us to join together to have a positive impact in the fight to protect our future from the impacts of climate change.
Earth Hour first began in Sydney, Australia, and quickly grew into a worldwide occurrence. In 2008, 50 million individuals, 371 cities in 35 countries participated. In 2009, nearly one billion people participated along with 4,000 cities and 88 countries.
But Earth Hour isn’t just for big cities — anyone can participate.
Make the commitment and turn off all your lights for just one hour. We hope that during this hour it will help save energy, spread awareness, and allow time to think about things you can do in your daily life that will benefit this planet. There is only one Earth, so we must do what we can to help save it. Our actions add up; Earth Hour is a first step!
It is only an hour...
Join the movement to help save our climate, raise awareness and to honor Mother Earth...just take a look around at what she has given us.
Spring has arrived but Old Man Winter is not quite ready to give up his post for the season. I have been saying for the past month or so: " Mr. Winter, please give us at least 10 more inches of snow!"
Well, portions of the U.S. will have a bit more then that as a rather complex and major storm is forecasted to drop around a foot of snow for the Northern Plains and any where from a dusting to near 10 inches for parts of the Tri-state. Although it may officially be the Spring season, we do need to remember that we need to allow a few weeks of transitioning weather in order for the season to get into the swing of things.
Back to the main event! The winter storm in in discussion is developing over the Central Plains and will move towards the Ohio Valley through Wednesday and off the East Coast by Thursday. Although there may be sunny skies and mild temperatures well into Tuesday evening for much of the Tri-State, the increasing clouds is indicative of the system to come. The high pressure over the area Tuesday will move to the North. This high pressure will reinforce colder air down across New York and Pennsylvania. This cold air will also tap into moisture that will be over this cold air which could end up bringing down banding of heavy and potentially significant snowfall. With that said, Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for Northeast Pennsylvania, Southern New York, and portions of Northwest New Jersey. In these locations, anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow could fall. Considering how much snow was squeezed out of this past storm on Sunday (just about 5 inches of snow in the Poconos), it would not be too surprising if the higher elevations received higher amounts. This snow is going to be the heavy wet snow at that, with the potential for rather high snow ratios.
Central NJ could be issued a Winter Storm Advisory if temperatures tap into the cooler air and evaporative cooling occurs is allowed; a wintry mix and a short amount of time for snow is possible. For the near term for Tuesday evening, rain is likely the p.type to fall. The models are forecasting isentropic lift (Lifting air along an upward sloping isentropic surface, the physical process of the air lifting due to erroneous overrunning) and deep convergence (both together signify intensification, the presence of strong precipitation, and convection). This could allow for a quick change over from rain to snow, that will run well into the southern NJ and PA. The only thing that will make this snow easier to handle is that the surface temperatures will still be on the warm side, so accumulation on roadways will not be much, if any thing a slushy mix.
March 22, 2011 Forecast Courtesy of ACCUWEATHER
Once the 'burst' of precipitation (snow) happens in the morning Wednesday, there is a forecasted lull in the system. There is still the question of how much will fall and how much will stick. The solar angle, believe it or not, does play in a factor. The higher sun angle and increased solar radiation will allow for temperatures to rise, especially at the surface and allow for this p.type to change over to a sleet/freezing rain mix. Again, this mixing will allow for the snow in NJ/PA and further South and East to be more wet and heavy. The further North and West, the snow will become more fluffy (due to the colder temperatures and less rain mixing).
Storm Snowfall Totals Courtesy of NOAA/NWS
Much will be the same for the most part Thursday. Just be aware of slick roads. Total snow accumulations are are posted above. Clearing through the day Thursday, the snow/rain will begin to taper off. The pattern for the next week does seem to be a little on the cold side and will also result in rather stormy.
Magnitude 8.9 earthquake hit Japan; the most powerful earthquake for Japan in at least 100 years, Friday at 5:46:23 UTC (which was 2:46:23 P.M. local time at the epicenter). The distance of the epicenter is:
80 miles East of Sendai, Honshu, Japan (one of the hardest hit cities from the the tsunami)
110 miles East of Yamogata, Honshu, Japan
231 miles NE of Tokyo Japan
This massive quake was a result of thrust faulting near the subduction zone interface plate boundary between the Pacific and North America plates.
Subduction Zone of Pacific and North America Tectonic Plates
According to the U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS), the Pacific plate moves westward (subducts) with respect to the North American plate at a velocity of 88mm per year. Granted this number seems insignificant, but when pressure builds between the plates from the movement a significant earthquake can release, much like what happened in Japan Friday. The Pacific plate thrusts under Japan along the Japan Trench. The earthquake that was unleashed as trust faulting occurred along the subduction plate boundary.
Pacific Ring of Fire
Now, referring to the image above, the subduction zone is a process of one plate pushing downward beneath another plate into the underlying mantle when the plates move toward each other. The plate that is denser will slide under the thicker less dense plate.
The earthquake is one issue, the next is the tsunami that followed. Below is a video of a whirlpool that was formed from the earthquake. Absolutely fascinating.
The video and images from this event is breathtakingly heart wrenching and absolutely astonishing. Writing about it will not do any justice. Watching The Today Show Friday morning, I could not help but be speechless to the events that were unavailing on the other side of the globe.
The breakdown of a tsunami is as follows:
A tsunami is a series of water waves caused by a displacement of a large volume of water. Just a note, tsunami is a Japanese word meaning 'harbor' or 'wave.' In the case of Friday, the water above the earthquake area was displaced from its equilibrium position. As prior mentioned, this was a thrust fault earthquake. The abrupt movement of the plates created the vertical motion of the water.
earthquake beneath the water along the ocean floor.
Tsunamis have small amplitude (wave heights). All the energy is accumulated under the water surface. Tsunamis have very long wavelengths that are often hundreds of kilometers long, which is why they can go unnoticed while at sea...typically when there is enough warning time for a tsunami, boats will travel away from the coast and harbors to further out to sea in order to not be affected. Once the wave reaches shallower water and the Continental Shelf, the wave height grown. This is when the tsunami can grow to up to be 30 foot wall of a wave! These waves travel at nearly 600 miles per hour. The footage of the tsunami moving along the shores of Sendai, Japan show just how fast the water came onto shore. People can't outrun the force and speed of this water.
Formation of a tsunami approaching the coast
How to predicting a tsunami
The Western coast line will be under a low tide during the projected time the tsunami is supposed to touch the shore of the West Coast. Mother Nature is fortunately working in our favor in that respect. However, low or high tide, a tsunami can still do damage to coastal areas. It just depends of the geography of the coastal land. San Andres Fault, along the California coast is especially vulnerable during times like this when there is such a massive quake a few thousand miles away across the Pacific Ocean. The plates are in always in constant motion. Earthquakes occur everyday. Fingers crossed that isn't the beginning of a chain of events that triggers more significant earthquakes along the Ring of Fire. An event like this is an unnerving reminder that California is due for a significant earthquake.
