Irene on the Move

After Hurricane Irene reeked havoc along the shores of North Carolina, she is/was well on the move up the coast. It is rather unbelievable that over 65 million people were prepared for the worst case scenario over a 48 hour time span. Major kudos to the forecastors and broadcasters and Emergency Management officials that took all the sleepless, wall-pounding frustrating hours warning people of what could happen and pretty much save all these people!

Much like E-R,  the weather is a 24-7 industry...although my day-job does not take me so much in the weather world, however, I can not help but not sleep prior to and during this historic event! I truely believe, that what I write and Tweet is my public service to warn the people around me in my reach about the weather (hazards to come). To quote Oprah: "Embrace the world that is calling you, and use your calling to serve the world."

BACK TO IRENE:

Hurricane Irene. Category 1. Eye in DELMARVA @ 2232UTC on Aug27. Courtesy of RAP UCAR.

After passing over NC, on way up the Atlantic: STILL as of 2300 UTC (or 7:00 P.M. EDT, Irene is steady and strong at a Category 1 Hurricane and is expected to remain so up the East Coast as it makes its 2nd landfall, or pass just East of the New Jersey shore.
Everyone was telling me today: "Oh, WeatherWoman, it is just ONLY a Category 1, and we in Central Jersey ONLY have tropical storm warnings! There is nothing to worry about!"
I continued to tell them there is plenty to fear my friends: Tons of rain and strong winds! This storm is huge (literally) and is packing tropical storm force winds 200 miles away from the eye of the hurricane!

- Astronomical high tides: meaning there is a New Moon that will bring an even higher tide. Add on storm surge from a hurricane that has potential to pass over the Jersey coast and and the waves will be even higher: expected to be 20 feet! Because of this, Atlantic City Casinos have closed shop!

- Heavy rain! Oh, so much rain! For many areas in NJ, it will not take long to reach flood stage: perhaps ONLY a few feet and BOOM your flooding! Forecastors and officials are watching for water contamination so have bottled water ready! So much rain and with no place to go, roads are flooding, and flooding fast! Officials have closed down flood plane roads for extra precaution.

- Winds: the ground is already SO saturated. Heavy tropical winds plus just even 25-30 mph winds and you have trees falling down in a short period of time, let along over the course of 8 plus hours! When driving home from work, LITERALLY, trees looked like they were drooping: kind of like how they would if you over watered a plant...and you could even start to see mounding bumps in the ground where the stump/bottom area of the trees are...
Its hard not to feel a little wary when you hear the winds howling outside! :-/

-Embedded tornadoes : Are Irene approaches closer to the shores of New Jersey, an embedded tornado can not be ruled out. In the red shaded portion of the hurricane shows where the on shore winds are some of the strongest and there in lies the chance for tornadoes.

Now, these tornadoes are not going to pop up on the RADAR as what 'normal' convective tornadoes would look like. These tornadoes are part of a slightly larger area of 'wind' or spiraling rain bands that are moving very fast and drop down as quickly as they can pop back up. The changing of the wind speeds with height acts like a mechanism for these tornadoes.  They can be on the ground for a few minutes, but still do a lot of damage. This circulation is found of the RADAR as part of a Bow-echo but then forms a hook-echo (it literally looks like a hook at the end) and BOOM! There is a tornado. Because they happen SO fast, it is hard to issue a warning when they form. Thus the reason for the look out and the Tornado Watch that was posted from the National Weather Service. As Irene's eye gets closer, and the winds become increasingly higher, the risk for spawning tornadoes becomes greater. The scary thing is this: There is generally no lightning or hail associated with these tornadoes!

More to Come On Irene...

Hurricane Irene

Irene is a major category 3 hurricane. This storm is HUGE and slowly moving. It is still early enough for the storm to strengthen because the ocean waters along the coasts of South and North Carolina are in the middle 80s just adding more fuel to the hurricane which is forecasted to strengthen to a category 4 due to these warmer waters.

RAP-UAR Satellite Image of Irene

There is no question that the East Coast will be affected and certainly no question that Cape Hatteras, North Carolina will be affected, if not directly hit by a major (category 3) hurricane in the next 24-26 hours. The question there in lies what track Irene will take after it hits and passes through Cape Hatteras.

The reason for our projection and concern is the following graphic:

The dip in the jet stream, an upper-level high  over the south-central states, as well as the high-pressure system aloft over the Atlantic (the clockwise circulations) are all helping to create a near perfect alleyway for Irene to track up the East Coast. A day or two ago, the popular thought was the battle between the jet and the Atlantic high-pressure; the jet was was wishcasted to win the battle bringing Irene a bit further out to sea saving the East Coast from the worst. However, this is not so much looking to be the case: Now hurricane model guidence has shifted Irene further to the west after it moves away from Cape Hatteras and closer to our coast.

Once Irene makes a direct hit to North Carolonia, there are projected storm tracks along the I-95 Corridor from NC all the way to the North East. Some of the model runs are projecting
This system is a very large system: The size of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina combined that have tropical storm force winds (sustained up to 73 mph) that extend up to 200 miles away from the center of the hurricane! Even if we get more of a direct hit, the storm strength will be downgraded to at least a Category 1, which is still significant. Forecasters are not to optimistic about this cyclone downgrading anytime soon. Since Irene is so massively huge, it will take a lot for it to lose strength; this will happen as it moves into cooler waters (but keep in mind, the sea surface temperatures (SST) are quite warm for us, which are in the upper 70s-lower 80s), and another thing about this storm is that since it is so large, it is moving very slow (NW @ 12-13mph). With that said; a substantial amount of rain will fall over a long period of time. Lastly, as mentioned before,

the wind is huge component to the cyclone. Referring to the Infrared image above, the darker red and orange colors around the eye of the hurricane have tropical storm force winds extending up to 200 miles away from the storm!

Our (myself and fellow meteorologists) excitement is contained, for our concerns and safety is taking presidence in this situation.

Our concerns are as followed:

- Beach errosion: substantial beach erosion from this Winter has decimated our Jersey beaches thus making our coasts that much more susceptible to storm surge.
**Officials have been evacuating beaches along the East Coast because storm surge and high winds will make beaches NOT SAFE TO BE ON! DO NOT GO TO THE BEACH TO SEE IRENE!**
- Storm surge is the TOP killer in a hurricane, not so much the rain and winds:

Storm surge and high tides 

Storm Surge Zones for Coastal NYC and LI

Perpendicular winds of the storm to the coast add to excessive water piling up

- High tide: High tides will be higher making wave heights and storm surge that much higher...
- Saturated ground: The ground is already saturated from all the rain we have had this month. Parts of Philidelphia and New Jersey are already in a surplus of +10-15 inches of rainfall. Flooding WILL occur, and will be a major problem for highly prone flooding areas, especially due to the forecast of prolonged tropical rain.
New York City and Long Island have been and will evacuate flood prone areas for the fear that Irene will make a direct hit on the city.

NYC flood prone map.

Plan accordingly for potential evacuation and flooding.
- Winds: more rain from the tropical system will increase the risk of vulnerability and compromise the root systems of trees. Add in gusting and sustained hurricane force of tropical storm force winds and trees will be uprooted and significant power outages that could potentially affect some 55 million people along the East Coast. Along with strong winds includes the risk for embedded tornadoes that could be formed at any point along the eye-wall of the cyclone.

Forecasters have been referring to spaghetti maps for the potential track of the storm. The different colored

Potential tracks of Hurricane Irene Courtesy of spaghettimodels.com  

lines are the different weather models and their interpolation of the forecast. As the models become more organized and begin to agree on the storm track, the lines will be closer together and you will be able to see more confidence on the map in terms of where the storm will go. You can see this confidence by looking at the first two points in front of the red cyclone (red) image. All the models agree that the storm will move in that direction. As it moves further up the coast, the confidence because to weaken as the lines on the map seem to go in different directions, but generally show the same area of uncertainty. Position and time, like I said is key; the position of the eye of the hurricane will depend on how much rain, flooding, heavy winds (up to 100mph sustained winds), and power-outages.

I will keep you updated on details of the forecast track of Irene. For now, this is very useful information on the timing and impacts Irene will have:

The last time NYC was directly hit by a hurricane was in 1893 New York Hurricane...think of how much as changed in the city since then...:how many people will be affected, how much flooding and damage could be done.


Hurricane Gloria in 1985, had this kind of storm track as Irene...once it hit the cooler long Island waters, the hurricane dropped down from a category 2 to a category 1. Residents said in the end that the storm was not as bad as expected but were happy they prepared for the worst because it could have been much worse.



A final note: the hurricane can shift storm track at any time making a direct hit or nearly nothing at all. Storm preparation is key. Better to be prepared then not.

Prepare for the worst: water, blankets, sandbags, flashlights, batteries, candles, battery operated radios, charged cell phones, non-perishable foods, first-aid kits, evacuation plans.

* Be sure to evacuate when officials tell you to do so: there is a reason why they are telling you to evacuate!

~ V.S.

East Coast Atlantic Hurricanes!

In-light of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) updating and increasing the potential tropical seson forecast... it got the brain juices flowing and it got me wondering about what would why this forecast changed...

NOW..To all my fellow weather weenies: If you took a look at the recent GFS weather model (although this is a two week out projection AND it is the rather not-so-trustworthy GFS), I personally can not help but feel mildly excited, though not putting all eggs in one basket, about the possible tropical weather pattern.

Considering the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic Hurricane season began in June, the season really does not ramp up until September: giving the oceans time to really warm up from the Summer Sun.

Hurricane activity over past 100 years. Updated in 2007. Courtesy of : TWC

This season, at least in the Atlantic, has not been anything to speak of, but as you can see from the graphic, there is still plenty of time for tropical systems including strong hurricanes.
Just think this: The infamous Hurricane Katrina made its name in late August of 2005.

While looking at the forecast models today (Please note: I am not going to display an image of the models as they are just a projection and can change in the next few hours and days over the model runs),  I saw a couple of 'systems' making way towards our beautiful Tri-State...Not to instill fear, I am not saying it will happen, just making an observation and statement that a major storm could happen...
                             ---------------------------------------------------------------------
The updated forecast issued August 4 by the NHC:

The 2011 season is expected to be comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

• 14-19 Named Storms,
• 7-10 Hurricanes
• 3-5 Major Hurricanes
• An ACE range of 135%-215% of the 1981-2010 median

Hurricane Ike strengthening in the Caribbean. 

These odds have changed and the amount of tropical storms have increased, thus an added risk for New Jersey to be hit by a hurricane...greater then just a tropical storm... greater then a category 1 strength hurricane! It has certainly happened (indeed damaging and costly at that!), and will occur again...Click here to check out a list of tropical systems that brushed the states and shore of the New Jersey Metro area. We are due for another...it is only a matter of time.

Hurricane Earl

(Image above)
- Hurricane Earl: formed August 35, 2010. Dissipated September 5th, 2010.
- Weakened to a T.S. by the time it rode up the New England coast
- (Not recommended) I went to see the surf @ Belmar, NJ when this was passing by..INCREDIBLE waves!

If you checked out the link above, you can see that New Jersey and the New England states have seen quite a bit of storms. I must say though, the one that really sticks out to me is the Great 1938 New England Hurricane...

I will explain in my next post...All I will say is that this cyclone is just a bit of a reminder of how vulnerable we are and delicate life and our coastlines can be... 

TO BE CONTINUED...


~V.S.

Heat Wave #5!

Ehh, It could be hotter don't you think?

First Tropical Storm in the Atlantic

This is rather exciting eh? Tropical Storm Bret is our first Tropical Storm for the Atlantic so far this hurricane season!

Courtesy of NOAA, NHC, NWS. July 19th, 2011

As of Tuesday, July 19th, the following are the stats. for Bret:
- Max sustained winds @ 50mph
- Moving NE @ 8mph
- Forecasted to be categorized as a Tropical Depression Thursday-Friday when it is at the closest to the NJ shores.
- Expect a rough surf and high rip tides Thursday through the weekend.

The storm is in rather warm waters...warm considering how unusually warm the Atlantic water have been so far this season. Ocean temperatures this time of year typically run in the 60s, but they are have 5-10 plus degrees higher. There is a slight chance this storm could strengthen, but it is doubtful. Bret is forecasted to follow course away from the East Coast through midweek as a strong Mid-Upper Level Ridge sets up shop in the Mid-Atlantic states, pushing Bret away from the coastline.

Ridge Axis showing the 'rising' of air

A ridge is an elongated area of High Pressure, Rising air and the weather at the surface is typically warm (very warm) and dry. This ridge will be over the Mid-Atlantic states towards the end of the week packing the heat the Central Plains have been having, where they have had temperatures in the 80 and 90 with heat indices in the 100s+ in the mornings! Keep in mind for the Central and Northern Plains: yes, they have had tremendous heat, BUT they have also have had A LOT of rain and flooding the past month...where is all that water/moisture going to go? It is all going to be evaporated back into the atmosphere and add that much more humidity back into the air. So, their heat indices are that much more oppressive because of that extra moisture. That's some yucky stuff!

Keep in cool and hydrated and more to come on the heat!

~ V.S.

Rising Temperatures and Energy Bills

As the temperatures are rising, so are your Summer energy bills! Record breaking heat is making you crank the ACs just to try to stay cool!
In the Central Plains, temperatures have been soaring well into the 90s accompanied with dewpoints in the 70s plus = heat indices OVER 100 degreesF. That is some impressive, oppressive heat!
This week it is OUR turn, as a Bermuda High sets up shop cranking the heat pump into full blast!
Temperatures in the New Jersey metro area are expected to reach the 90s in addition to high dewpoints and humidity, it will also feel well into the 100s through the week (at least we have the unsettled possibility of having scattered showers and storms to momentarily cool things down, other have not been so fortunate).

Things to keep in mind:
- Keeping hydrated is paramount! If you feel thirsty, you are already dehydrated!
- Try not to workout or even be outside between the hours of 2-4 p.m. as it is the solar noon where the Sun is the strongest and at the highest point of the sky.
- Wear WHITE or LIGHT clothing, as these colors will reflect the sunlight making you feel a lot cooler then you would wearing black or dark colors.
- Do not keep pets outside too long, they suffer in the heat as well.
- Check on elderly and children; they both are highly sensitive to heat exhaustion/stroke.

Just remember to be smart when out in the heat... it's some scary stuff and nothing you want to mess with.

Here are some tips to help you lower your energy costs as "Heat Wave #5" barrels down on the New Jersey metro area:

- If you have your ACs on... set the temperature a little higher (like @ around 72ish degreesF) and at a low speed setting; you will use significantly less energy.
- Make sure ALL windows and doors are closed to prevent the outside heat from leaking in and help your AC from not running so much.
- If the temperature is cooler (and bearable), especially in the evenings, give the AC a break and open the windows.
- During the daytime, draw the blinds/shades to block the sun, do this especially during the hottest part of the day (from noon until sunset).
- Plant trees or vegetation to shade your WEST-FACING windows/doors. The shade will shield your house from the heat and sun rays, and the transpiration (moisture released from the plants) will allow for a bit more cooling, at least outside.
- Cut the time for your HOT showers. How water will use you water heater more and thus using more energy to make the water hot.
- ...This also applies to doing a load of laundry: set the water to warm or cold, it will put less work on your water heater... keep the hot water for heavy duty cleaning only.
- Try not to use the dryer (when doing laundry). The heat outside is a natural air/clothing dryer!
- Check out installing ceiling fans in your house. You can keep the thermostat at a higher temperature, or just turn it off all together if you have the ceiling fans keeping air circulation.
- If you do not have an AC or ceiling fans, just simply placing a fan in your window can cool a room significantly! Oh, how I remember those college dorm days...
- When cooking, try not to cook with the oven during the really hot days. This will just add more heat to the house and make the AC run even more just to try to cool the house down even more! Quick fix: Cook outside on the grill (plus nothing tastes better then a burger on a grill on a hot Summer day!

Keep it cool!

~ V.S.

More on Weather

To all of my blog viewers:

I do need to apologize as I once promised to write and update my blog frequently. However, as we all know, sometimes life can just drain us from our pleasures leaving us too exhausted to take a minute to sit and breath.

I love to write. I love to write about weather and everything environmental and Earth related. Follow me on Twitter, @WeatherWomanNJ,  as I do post there frequently.
I thank you for all of your support and interest and I look forward to having lots of Twitter followers!

Thank you thank youu!

Just remember to keep an eye to the sky and share with me what you see!

~ V.S.